Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) Earnings
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is expected to report next earnings on November 10, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.14. PBR has beaten EPS estimates in 7 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -5.7% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | $1.52 | $1.62 | +6.6% | $33.6B | +6.8% |
| May 12, 2026 | $1.02 | $0.70 | -31.4% | $23.5B | -10.9% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | $0.57 | $0.56 | -1.8% | $22.6B | -1.2% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $0.79 | $0.82 | +3.8% | $23.5B | -81.3% |
| Aug 8, 2025 | $0.70 | $0.64 | -8.6% | $21.0B | -81.9% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | $0.37 | $0.49 | +32.4% | $20.8B | -83.5% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.82 | $0.93 | +13.4% | $23.4B | +4.0% |
| Mar 8, 2024 | $1.12 | $1.27 | +13.4% | $27.1B | +1.2% |
| Nov 10, 2023 | $0.90 | $0.86 | -4.4% | $25.6B | -1.8% |
| Aug 3, 2023 | $0.97 | $0.90 | -7.2% | $23.0B | -4.6% |
| May 11, 2023 | $0.98 | $1.11 | +13.3% | $26.8B | -3.3% |
| Mar 2, 2023 | $1.10 | $1.25 | +13.6% | $30.2B | -0.3% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · August 7, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Record Financial and Operational Performance * Q2 2026 delivered the highest recurring quarterly net profit in Petrobras' history in USD terms, driven by record production volumes rather than record Brent crude prices. * Operating cash flow reached $12.3 billion for the quarter, an almost 50% increase quarter-over-quarter. * Petrobras paid 88.6 billion reais in total taxes and government take in Q2 2026, an increase of approximately $22 billion year-over-year, with benefits shared across Brazilian federal, state, and municipal governments. ### Capital Structure and Discipline * Q2 2026 CapEx totaled $5.3 billion, with 82% allocated to high-return E&P projects to grow production. The full-year 2026 CapEx projection is $16.9 billion, with a +/- 5% margin. * The company completed lease contract renegotiations that extended terms, increasing near-term lease liabilities but reducing future cash outflows. Q2 2026 saw $2.9 billion in debt prepayment and bond repurchases, resulting in an end-of-quarter gross debt of $70.8 billion and net debt of $60.4 billion. The long-term target for net debt convergence is $65 billion. ### Operational Efficiency Improvements * Multiple large platforms have been optimized to produce above original nameplate capacity with no additional capital investment, generating incremental free cash flow immediately. * The company has accelerated planned project delivery and ramp-up for new platforms, with projects like P78 and P79 brought online ahead of original schedules. * Focus on reducing scheduled platform downtime through improved planning and maintenance integrity to preserve production volumes. ### Exploration and Growth Strategy * Confirmed a new gas discovery in Colombia, aligned with the long-term strategy of reserve replenishment through exploration in new international frontiers, while Brazil remains the core priority. * The company continues to leverage its deepwater exploration expertise gained from Brazil's pre-salt development to target similar geological formations internationally, particularly in the Atlantic margin of Africa and the Gulf of Mexico.
Guidance
* Full-year 2026 production guidance is maintained at a +/- 4% range, with management expecting to reach the top of the range and potentially surpass original targets due to accelerated project delivery and ramp-up. * Full-year 2026 CapEx is expected to land at the top of the stated $16.9 billion +/- 5% range; any acceleration of project delivery will be done without increasing total project costs. * Operating expenses for H1 2026 are slightly above original plan, pressured by higher freight and logistics costs and exchange rate effects; full-year expenses may exceed the original $20.2 billion projection if current cost conditions persist, with any revision will be disclosed transparently. * New platform P80 is targeted to start production in Q1 2027, ahead of the original schedule of Q2 2027; P82 is still on schedule for Q2 2027 start-up, and P83 is targeted for H1 2027, with potential delays possible due to poor seasonal weather conditions.
Segment performance
Exploration & Production (E&P): Achieved average oil production of 2.7 million barrels per day, a 15% increase year-over-year, adding 350,000 barrels of additional annual production. 7 platforms currently operate above original nameplate capacity, adding over 100,000 barrels of incremental daily production, with an additional 270,000 barrels of remaining ramp-up capacity available in H2 2026. Oil exports rose 12% quarter-over-quarter. 82% of Q2 2026 $5.3 billion total CapEx was allocated to E&P. Well drilling increased 40% quarter-over-quarter, well completions increased 45%, and interconnections increased 43% driven by Buzios field projects. Refining: Achieved a record 101% refinery utilization factor (FUT), with April and May reaching 102% FUT. Total oil product output increased 6% quarter-over-quarter, while maintaining yield shares for high-value-added products (diesel, jet fuel, gasoline). Diesel imports decreased 40% quarter-over-quarter; Petrobras is now essentially fully self-sufficient in gasoline. Refined product exports also increased in the quarter. The company reached a historical July 2026 diesel production record of 3,904,000 cubic meters, with 70% average yield, 5% above the prior record. Upcoming refinery expansions will add almost 10,000 cubic meters per day of additional processing capacity by the end of 2026.
Risks & headwinds
* Proposed Brazilian natural gas regulatory changes could require reassessment of existing and planned gas projects; regulatory instability and lack of legal certainty would negatively impact capital investment planning. * Seasonal poor sea conditions in Brazil can delay the arrival and installation of new offshore platforms, potentially pushing back production start dates. * Uncertainty in global logistics and freight costs, combined with exchange rate volatility, could push full-year 2026 operating expenses above original projections. * Downside risk to Brent crude prices could reduce incremental cash flow available for accelerated debt reduction or new investments. * Exploration in new frontiers (both domestic in the equatorial margin and international) carries inherent geological risk, with no guarantee of commercial discoveries.
Analyst Q&A
Q: With stronger-than-expected production growth, can management confirm 2026 production expectations and the potential for upside from efficiency gains? /
A: Management says 2026 guidance maintains a +/-4% range and they expect to hit the top of the range, possibly surpassing the original target. The company has achieved large incremental production by optimizing existing platforms to run above nameplate capacity with no extra investment, and is focusing on reducing scheduled downtime to add further volumes. New platform P80 will be brought online three months ahead of schedule.
Q: What is the plan for incremental excess cash flow generated by stronger production and prices, and how will capital be allocated for the 2026-2030 planning period? /
A: The top priority is accelerating the acceleration of high-return existing projects to bring forward value. The second priority is accelerating the convergence of the planned net debt target of $65 billion, bringing the end-of-plan target earlier than 2030. Extraordinary dividends are considered very unlikely, as Brent prices are expected to revert to the levels assumed in the original strategic plan.
Q: What is Petrobras' position on Braskem amid reports Braskem potential court-supervised legal reorganization and talk of potential capital injection from Petrobras? /
A: A new shareholders agreement that gave Petrobras greater governance and voting power was only put in place two months ago, and Petrobras is currently still reviewing all options in close coordination with Braskem's board. Braskem will release its own earnings next week, and the situation remains sensitive to ongoing negotiations, so no further details can be disclosed at this time.
Q: What are the priorities for international expansion, and which geographies does Petrobras target? /
A: The core priority for international expansion is replenishing reserves, leveraging Petrobras deep and ultra-deepwater exploration expertise. The company focuses on geologies similar to Brazil, focusing on South America (including Mexico, Bolivia, Colombia), and the Atlantic margin of Africa, where geological formations match what the company already has decades of operational experience. The company is currently collecting seismic data for potential joint exploration opportunities with Pemex in the Gulf of Mexico.