Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) Earnings

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. is expected to report next earnings on October 19, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $3.28. PAC has beaten EPS estimates in 7 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -3.1% over the last four).

Next earnings
Oct 19, 2026in NaN days
EPS est $3.28 · Revenue est $710M
Track record
Beat EPS in 7 of 12 quarters
Avg surprise -3.1% (last 4 quarters)
Earnings history
Report dateEPS estEPS actualSurpriseRevenueRev. surprise
Jul 15, 2026$3.10$2.80-9.7%$649M-11.4%
Apr 20, 2026$3.54$3.63+2.5%$656M+15.1%
Oct 20, 2025$2.96$2.86-3.4%$520M-21.8%
Jul 21, 2025$2.75$2.70-1.8%$584M-0.4%
Jul 22, 2024$2.04$2.54+24.5%$397M-12.4%
Feb 26, 2024$2.44$2.69+10.2%$528M+18.7%
Jul 24, 2023$2.60$2.75+5.8%$489M+9.3%
Apr 17, 2023$2.36$2.72+15.3%$461M+12.7%
Feb 20, 2023$2.36$1.84-22.0%$408M+14.3%
Oct 21, 2022$2.17$2.56+18.0%$335M+10.0%
Jul 25, 2022$1.97$2.27+15.2%$327M+13.7%
Feb 23, 2022$1.74$1.67-4.0%$253M-9.5%

Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Earnings call summary

Q2 FY2026 · July 15, 2026

AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Management highlights

### Overall Financial Performance * Total EBITDA increased 8.4% year-over-year to 6 billion pesos, with EBITDA margin expanding 230 basis points to 69.3%, demonstrating earnings resilience despite lower passenger traffic. * Total operating costs remained relatively stable year-over-year, with a 3% overall increase that included one-off CDX merger-related expenses and two months of CDX operating costs, partially offset by a positive provision reversal from the internalization of technical assistance services. * GAP maintains a solid liquidity profile, with 5.4 billion pesos in cash and cash equivalents following the CDX business combination. ### Passenger Traffic Operations * Total passenger traffic across GAP's 14-airport network declined 5.6% year-over-year. * Jamaica: Traffic remains impacted by Hurricane Melissa; hotel capacity along the main tourist corridor is gradually recovering but has not yet returned to pre-storm levels, with full recovery expected through the second half of 2026. * Mexico: The operating environment remains challenging, with airlines adjusting capacity to respond to rising jet fuel costs that have pushed up airfares. International traffic at Puerto Vallarta declined 27% due to ongoing security concerns and U.S. government travel advisories. GAP is partnering with stakeholders to rebuild connectivity and travel confidence. * Guadalajara Airport successfully handled 4-5 FIFA World Cup matches in June, with 6% traffic growth at the airport, offset by temporary declines in leisure and business travel at other GAP airports during the tournament, which is expected to normalize in July. ### Strategic Progress * The new diversified business model is delivering results: GAP is no longer reliant solely on passenger traffic volume, with directly operated commercial and logistics businesses providing complementary, recurring earnings. * CDX cross-border mobility operations met initial expectations after consolidation began in May 2026, with opportunities for further growth via dynamic pricing, ancillary services, and improved connectivity between Tijuana and Southern California. * Capital expenditure continues to focus on expanding airport capacity, improving operational infrastructure, and enhancing passenger experience under the 2025-2029 Master Development Plan for Mexico and capital programs for Jamaica. * GAP is progressing with the Fibra GAP project to incorporate a minority equity interest in 12 Mexican airport concession areas, with completion expected in the third quarter of 2026.

Guidance

Management revised full-year 2026 guidance to reflect current traffic trends, CDX consolidation, and the internalization of technical assistance services: * Passenger traffic: Revised to a range of -3% to flat year-over-year growth, down from prior expectations, and assumes gradual recovery rather than an immediate full rebound in impacted markets (Puerto Vallarta, Montego Bay). * Aeronautical revenue: Expected to grow 1% to 4% year-over-year, supported by the implementation of regulator-approved tariff adjustments at Mexican airports. * Non-aeronautical revenue: Expected to grow 21% to 24% year-over-year, driven by growth in directly operated businesses and full-year consolidation of CDX. * EBITDA: Expected to grow 10% to 12% year-over-year, with an expected EBITDA margin of approximately 67% ± 1%, reflecting the benefits of technical service internalization. * Full-year CAPEX: Expected to total approximately 4 billion pesos, consisting of 3 billion pesos for Mexican airport investments under the Master Development Plan, 2 billion pesos for Jamaican airport investments, and 1 billion pesos for commercial investments. * No change to the 17.5 pesos per dollar average exchange rate assumption for the second half of 2026. * Management expects positive traffic and revenue growth in 2027, but notes it is too early to provide a formal full-year range due to ongoing uncertainty, with recovery of Jamaican hotel capacity fully expected by end-2026.

Segment performance

1. Aeronautical: Revenue decreased 3.2% year-over-year. The decline was driven by lower overall passenger traffic across Mexican and Jamaican operations, plus a 10.9% appreciation of the Mexican peso that negatively impacted conversion of U.S. dollar-denominated revenue and international passenger charges. This segment accounts for the majority of GAP's core revenue, partially offset by gradual implementation of new approved maximum tariffs for the 2025-2029 regulatory period in Mexico. 2. Non-aeronautical: Revenue increased 23.9% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Crossword Express (CDX), directly operated non-aeronautical lines grew 17%: carbon-bounded warehouse operations grew 22%, advertising grew 58%, hotel operations grew 27%, convenience stores grew 11%, and parking grew 9%. CDX contributed 168 million pesos in revenue across May and June 2026, with an average of $42.8 revenue per passenger, aligned with expectations. Segments more exposed to international traffic (duty-free, VIP lounges) remain under pressure. This segment now makes up a growing share of total revenue, contributing strongly to overall margin expansion.

Risks & headwinds

* Persistently lower passenger traffic in key impacted markets: Jamaica's recovery from Hurricane Melissa is slower than expected, and Puerto Vallarta continues to face headwinds from security concerns and U.S. government travel advisories. * Macroeconomic headwinds in Mexico: Slower GDP growth and weaker consumer consumption are dampening domestic passenger demand, while regional manufacturing slowdowns in markets like Tijuana create additional downward pressure. * Airline industry pressures: Rising jet fuel costs continue to push up airfares, reducing demand and leading to capacity cuts across key routes. The pending merger of Viva and Volaris creates uncertainty for 2027 capacity growth. * Geopolitical and commodity volatility: Ongoing conflict in Iran and sustained high oil prices create further risk for airfare costs and airline capacity. * Foreign exchange risk: A stronger Mexican peso negatively impacts conversion of U.S. dollar-denominated aeronautical revenue. * Concession agreement risk: GAP bears full traffic volume risk under its concession terms, so there is no automatic tariff compensation for lower-than-forecast passenger volumes over the regulatory period. * Integration risk for the CDX acquisition: Realizing expected margin improvements from CDX integration depends on successful implementation of operational efficiencies.

Analyst Q&A

  • Q: Given weaker-than-expected June traffic and the revised 2026 guidance implying a stronger second half, can you elaborate on how the recovery will unfold, and what is the status of the Fibra GAP listing? /

    A: June's weakness was driven by temporary factors: higher airfares during the World Cup displaced business traffic, as fan travel took up existing capacity. Management expects deferred domestic leisure travel to rebound in July, with additional new route capacity adding to growth in the second half, leading to a full-year 2026 result in the -3% to flat range. For Fibra GAP, the trust incorporation is nearly complete, and meetings with investors are in the final stages, with launch expected in the coming weeks. There will be no permanent change to GAP's effective tax rate, with only a temporary small tax benefit from interest shields in 2026 and 2027.

  • Q: What level of maximum tariff compliance did GAP reach in Q2, what is the full-year target, and what is your early outlook for 2027 traffic? /

    A: GAP reached 90% of maximum allowed tariff compliance in the first half of 2026, and expects to reach ~95% by the end of the year following a 7% domestic passenger tariff increase implemented July 1 for Cabos and Puerto Vallarta. For 2027, it is too early to give a formal growth range, but management expects overall positive growth. Key factors that will shape 2027 performance include the impact of oil price volatility and the Iran conflict on airline costs, and capacity changes stemming from the Viva-Volaris merger. Jamaican hotel capacity is expected to be fully normalized by the end of 2026.

  • Q: How is Jamaica's traffic recovery progressing for the second half, and what are the key assumptions underlying the revised guidance? /

    A: Jamaica's seat capacity declined by 80% immediately after Hurricane Melissa in November 2025, but has recovered steadily. July 2026 seat capacity is still down 20% year-over-year, but scheduled capacity for the 2026 winter season is expected to return to full pre-storm levels. For guidance, the core assumptions are: a much stronger second half of 2026 to move full-year traffic from -5.6% in Q2 to the -3% to flat full-year range, gradual tariff increases at Mexican airports that will lift aeronautical revenue, and the full contribution of consolidated CDX operations to non-aeronautical revenue growth for the second half. The exchange rate assumption of 17.5 pesos per dollar for H2 2026 remains unchanged from prior planning.

  • Q: Can you detail the one-off CDX acquisition transaction expenses from Q2, and will we see additional integration expenses in future quarters? /

    A: All one-off merger-related acquisition expenses were already reflected in Q2 2026 results. CDX was previously operated as a standalone business, and GAP is now working on integration to capture operational efficiencies. Management expects these efficiency efforts to lift CDX margins starting in the fourth quarter of 2026, with no material additional large one-off integration expenses expected.