Nexstar Media Group, Inc.
- Open
- 177.90
- Day high
- 182.69
- Day low
- 175.27
- Prev close
- 177.84
- Volume
- 305K
- Mkt cap
- $5.5B
- P/E (TTM)
- 31.4
- EPS (TTM)
- $5.64
- P/B
- 2.4
- P/S
- 0.8
- Yield
- 4.20%
- Per share
- $7.44
- ▼Insiders net selling -$1.5M over the last 3 months (1 open-market buy, 27 sales)
- 🏛Institutions mixed (13F)
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) is a Communication Services company listed on NASDAQ. The stock is down 13% over the past year. Over the trailing 3 months, insiders filed 1 open-market buy and 27 sales (SEC Form 4). Drillr has 2 published research articles covering NXST.
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) financials & analyst ratings
Fundamentals (TTM)
Source: exchange market data + company filings. Figures are trailing-twelve-month or as most recently reported. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
NXST earnings date, history & EPS estimates
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $5.98 | $3.61 | -39.6% | $2.0B | +3.2% |
| May 7, 2026 | $4.43 | $6.15 | +38.8% | $1.4B | +9.7% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $4.07 | $-5.63 | -238.3% | $1.3B | +2.2% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $2.62 | $2.14 | -18.3% | $1.2B | -4.2% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $2.95 | $3.06 | +3.7% | $1.2B | +1.4% |
| May 8, 2025 | $3.26 | $3.37 | +3.4% | $1.2B | +0.6% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $9.22 | $7.56 | -18.0% | $1.5B | +19.1% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $5.41 | $5.27 | -2.6% | $1.4B | -7.5% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | $4.17 | $3.54 | -15.1% | $1.3B | -2.1% |
| May 9, 2024 | $3.97 | $5.16 | +30.0% | $1.3B | -0.4% |
| Feb 28, 2024 | $4.15 | $3.32 | -20.0% | $1.3B | -0.8% |
| Feb 28, 2023 | $7.57 | $8.04 | +6.2% | $1.5B | -0.3% |
NXST insider trading activity (SEC Form 4)
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Biard Michaelofficer: President & COO | Sell | 2,465 | $185.82 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Biard Michaelofficer: President & COO | Option | 6,250 | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Aulestia Bernadette S.director | Sell | 300 | $186.80 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | ZIMMER DANAofficer: See Remarks | Sell | 4,008 | $187.46 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | SOOK PERRY Adirector, officer: Chief Executive Officer | Buy | 12,235 | $162.26 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Jenkins Brettofficer: See Remarks | Sell | 301 | $170.81 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Knapp Lindseyofficer: EVP, Human Resources | Sell | 93 | $170.81 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | ZIMMER DANAofficer: See Remarks | Option | 938 | — |
| Jun 16, 2026 | ALFORD ANDREWofficer: President, Broadcasting | Option | 938 | — |
| Jun 16, 2026 | ALFORD ANDREWofficer: President, Broadcasting | Sell | 746 | $170.81 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Gliha Lee Annofficer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Sell | 373 | $170.81 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Jenkins Brettofficer: See Remarks | Option | 656 | — |
| Jun 16, 2026 | WEITMAN GARYofficer: See Remarks | Sell | 261 | $170.81 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | COMPTON SEANofficer: President, Networks | Option | 938 | — |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Russell Blakeofficer: EVP, Operations | Sell | 261 | $170.81 |
Source: NXST SEC Form 4 filings, latest Aug 24, 2026. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
See the full NXST insider & 13F page →NXST research & analysis
[NXST] Nexstar Media Group Thesis 2026: Retrans Fees and a Midterm Political Year Carry the Largest Local-TV Group
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: NXST) is the largest US local-television broadcaster, headquartered in Irving, Texas, founded in 1996 by Perry Sook, that built itself through a roll-up of local-TV stations (Media General 2017, the transformational Tribune Media deal in 2019, and others) and acquired a controlling stake in The CW Network in 2022. NXST enters FY2026 with FY2025 revenue ~$4.8-5.4B (~flat to -8% YoY on the odd-year political-ad trough, off ~$5.4B FY2024, a presidential year) and adj. EPS ~$15-25 (highly biennial-political-cycle-, retrans-reset- and buyback-sensitive; GAAP lumpy on amortization and occasional impairments), reflecting distribution (retransmission-consent) revenue (the recurring base), advertising revenue (core local/national spot plus political), and The CW + NewsNation + digital revenue, all under founder, Chairman + CEO Perry Sook (~30+ year tenure since founding the company in 1996; architect of the local-TV roll-up, the retransmission-consent-fee model, The CW and NewsNation, and the heavily-leveraged, huge-buyback capital model). The first thesis pillar is the Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle pipeline: the station portfolio is ~200+ owned/operated full-power TV stations across ~115+ markets, reaching ~70%+ of US TV households (at/near the FCC's 39% national-reach cap on a UHF-discounted basis) — affiliates of NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX, plus The CW — carrying local news, syndicated programming, network primetime and sports; retransmission-consent fees are the recurring, contracted, growing revenue base (cable/satellite/vMVPD operators — Comcast, Charter, DirecTV, Dish, YouTube TV, Hulu Live, FuboTV — pay Nexstar a per-subscriber fee to carry its stations, under multi-year contracts that reset higher each cycle because Nexstar's local stations and network affiliations are 'must-have'), now the majority of Nexstar's profit and far more stable than advertising — but with two pressures: cord-cutting (the pay-TV subscriber base shrinking, so per-sub increases must outpace subscriber losses, though they have so far) and 'reverse compensation' (the broadcast networks taking a growing share of the retrans fees back from affiliates as affiliation agreements reset); the political-advertising cycle is huge in even years (presidential biggest, midterm still very large) and dries up in odd years — local TV is a primary political-ad medium, especially down-ballot and in swing states, and Nexstar's large battleground-market footprint makes it a big beneficiary, so FY2025 is the odd-year trough and FY2026 is a midterm-election year, a big political rebound; core advertising (local + national non-political spot — auto, retail, services) is the cyclical, secularly-pressured part (advertisers shifting to digital/streaming), partly offset by digital/CTV products; and because local TV is a high-fixed-cost business, the retrans fees and political surges drop heavily to EBITDA, so margins swing with the political cycle; FY2026 catalyst is ~$5.3-6.0B revenue on the midterm political-advertising rebound, net retrans roughly flat-to-modestly-growing, core advertising still soft secularly, and EBITDA rebounding. The second pillar is the The CW + NewsNation + Digital + Capital Return / Leverage / Regulatory pipeline: The CW Network (a controlling stake acquired ~2022, formerly co-owned by Warner Bros./Paramount) is a turnaround — Nexstar is reprogramming it toward profitability, cutting expensive scripted programming and adding cheaper content (acquired series, unscripted, sports — ACC football/basketball, NASCAR, LIV Golf, WWE NXT) to move it from a money-loser to breakeven/profitable; NewsNation (rebranded from WGN America) is Nexstar's 'down-the-middle' national cable-news network, growing distribution and ratings but still investing (a money-loser building scale); digital + multicast (local station websites/apps, national digital, Antenna TV, Rewind TV) plus a stake in TV Food Network round it out; the capital-return story is that Nexstar generates large free cash flow (especially in even/political years) and returns most of it via huge buybacks (a very large fraction of shares bought back over the years — the share count down from ~60M+ a decade ago to the high-20s/low-30s — the centerpiece of the per-share-growth story), a growing dividend, debt paydown and occasional M&A; the leverage is significant (the roll-up legacy, especially the ~2019 Tribune Media deal — ~3-4x+ net leverage — manageable given the stable retrans and political cash flows, but a leveraged equity); and the regulatory backdrop matters — the FCC ownership cap (the 39%-of-households cap — Nexstar is at/near it; relaxation could enable a local-TV M&A wave with Nexstar as an acquirer or a target), the broadcast-ownership and affiliation rules, the 'reverse comp' trend and the political tilt of the FCC; FY2026 catalyst is The CW toward breakeven/profitability, NewsNation distribution and ratings growth, digital growth, huge buybacks, a growing dividend, deleveraging in the cash-rich even year, and the FCC-ownership-cap deregulation debate. The capital story: a ~$7.00-7.60 aggregate annual dividend per share (~3-5%+ yield; quarterly ~$1.86+; consistently growing), very large buybacks (~$0.5-1.5B+ annual — bigger in even/political years; the share count down from ~60M+ a decade ago), ~$5-7B net debt (the roll-up legacy; a term loan + senior notes; paid down in cash-rich years), ~3.0-4.5x net debt/EBITDA (elevated but manageable; lower in even years, higher in odd years — the ratio swings with the biennial cycle), a BB/Ba2 to BB+/Ba1 non-investment-grade credit profile, ~28-33M diluted shares (declining materially on buybacks) and ~$0.5-1.5B liquidity. At ~$160-280 per share on ~28-33M shares (~$5-8.5B equity, ~$11-15B EV — the EV far above the equity, the hallmark of a leveraged equity) NXST is best framed on EV/EBITDA and the biennial cycle: ~6-9x EV/EBITDA on a normalized (two-year-average) basis and a ~15-25%+ normalized free-cash-flow yield versus local-TV peers Sinclair, TEGNA, Gray Media, E.W. Scripps and the broader leveraged-buyback-media group, with a sum-of-the-parts/private-market-value frame on the station portfolio and the retrans-fee NPV. FY2026 base case is ~$5.3-6.0B revenue (the midterm rebound) + ~$18-28 adj. EPS + ~$2.0-2.5B+ adj. EBITDA + ~3.0-4.0x net debt/EBITDA (deleveraging in the even year) + huge buybacks; bull case a substantial equity re-rating on a big midterm political year (heavy spend in many Nexstar markets, a contested map), net retrans staying flat-to-up, a cyclical core-ad improvement, The CW reaching breakeven/profitability, NewsNation toward breakeven, digital growth, huge buybacks (the share count toward ~25-28M), deleveraging, and the FCC ownership cap relaxed enabling a local-TV M&A wave with Nexstar as the consolidator — the leverage and buyback amplifying the political-rebound earnings; bear case the equity sharply lower on cord-cutting/linear-decline accelerating (net retrans starting to decline — the existential long-term risk, since retrans is the majority of profit), 'reverse comp' intensifying, a weak midterm political year, the core-ad secular decline accelerating, The CW staying a persistent money-loser, NewsNation never reaching profitability, the leverage (a leveraged equity at risk if retrans/political deteriorate and shrinking buyback/dividend capacity), a network pulling/changing affiliations, an unfavorable regulatory turn and the Perry-Sook-succession overhang — the leverage working against you. The thesis depends on the Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle pipeline plus the ~200+-station portfolio plus the recurring retrans-fee base (net retrans staying flat-to-up despite cord-cutting and reverse-comp) plus the FY2026 midterm-election-year political-advertising rebound plus the biennial cash-flow cycle plus The CW and NewsNation reaching/approaching breakeven plus the huge buyback (the share count shrinking) plus the growing dividend plus deleveraging in even years plus the regulatory environment (the ownership cap — a potential M&A catalyst) and Perry Sook's retrans, political-cycle, capital-return and The-CW-turnaround execution.
NXST Jumps 4.8% as Court Eases TRO — $300M Synergy Case for Nexstar-TEGNA Deal
A judge eased merger-blocking TRO provisions on April 10, boosting NXST 4.8% and signaling integration greenlight post-TEGNA close. With $300M synergies and cheap fwd multiples, Nexstar eyes FCF explosion amid deregulation. Key watch: TRO expiry, debt reduction.
TGNA
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. company profile
Overview
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:NXST) is the largest television broadcasting company in the United States, founded in 1996 and headquartered in Irving, Texas. The company has grown through strategic acquisitions over nearly three decades to become a dominant force in local television broadcasting, operating 198 television stations across the country. In 2022, Nexstar significantly expanded its footprint by acquiring a 75% ownership stake in The CW Network, a national broadcast television network, marking its transition from purely local broadcasting into national programming. The company also operates NewsNation, a cable news network that provides national news programming.
Business
Nexstar operates in the television broadcasting industry, which involves transmitting television programming to viewers through over-the-air broadcast signals that can be received by television sets and antennas without requiring cable or satellite subscriptions. Television broadcasting is a foundational component of the American media landscape, providing free access to news, entertainment, and emergency information to local communities. The company's core business consists of three main segments. Local Television Broadcasting represents approximately 85-90% of total revenue and involves operating local television stations that are affiliated with major broadcast networks including ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS, The CW, and MyNetworkTV. These stations broadcast a mix of network programming, local news, syndicated content, and advertising. The CW Network accounts for roughly 5-10% of revenue and is a national broadcast network that Nexstar acquired majority control of in 2022, focusing on entertainment programming with an increasing emphasis on sports content. NewsNation represents the remaining revenue and is a 24/7 cable news network that launched in 2020, positioning itself as a fact-based alternative to other cable news networks. Local television stations serve as the primary source of local news, weather, and emergency information for their communities. They generate revenue by selling advertising time to local and national businesses, as well as receiving fees from cable and satellite providers who retransmit their signals to subscribers. The CW Network operates as a traditional broadcast network, licensing programming to affiliated stations nationwide and selling national advertising. NewsNation competes in the cable news space by offering programming that aims to be less partisan than established networks like CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.
Revenue model
Nexstar generates revenue through multiple complementary streams within the television broadcasting ecosystem. Distribution revenue accounts for approximately 55-60% of total revenue and comes from retransmission consent fees paid by cable, satellite, and streaming providers who carry Nexstar's local television signals to their subscribers. These fees have grown significantly over the past decade as the company has negotiated higher rates during contract renewals, typically achieving high single-digit to low double-digit annual growth rates. Advertising revenue represents 35-40% of total revenue and includes both local and national advertising sold across Nexstar's television stations, The CW Network, and NewsNation. Local advertising is sold to businesses within each station's market area, while national advertising is sold to companies seeking broader geographic reach. Political advertising provides significant revenue during election cycles, with Nexstar generating over $490 million in political advertising revenue during the 2024 election year. Digital revenue contributes a smaller but growing portion through online advertising and streaming services associated with the company's television properties. Several factors influence Nexstar's profit margins and revenue potential. Economic conditions directly impact advertising spending, as businesses typically reduce marketing budgets during recessions while increasing them during economic expansion. Cord-cutting trends affect distribution revenue, though this has been partially offset by streaming services that still pay retransmission fees. Political advertising cycles create significant revenue volatility, with presidential election years generating substantially higher revenue than off-years. Regulatory changes, particularly potential relaxation of broadcast ownership rules, could enable industry consolidation and operational efficiencies. Competition from digital advertising platforms like Google and Facebook continues to pressure traditional television advertising rates, while the shift toward streaming services creates both challenges and opportunities for content distribution.
Competitive moat
Nexstar's competitive moat stems primarily from the regulatory and practical barriers to entry in television broadcasting, though this moat faces increasing challenges from digital disruption. The company benefits from spectrum scarcity, as the Federal Communications Commission limits the number of broadcast licenses available in each market, creating a natural oligopoly. Local television stations also maintain advantages in providing hyper-local news, weather, and emergency information that national or digital competitors cannot easily replicate. The company's scale advantages as the largest broadcaster enable operational efficiencies in content acquisition, technology deployment, and advertising sales. Nexstar can negotiate better terms with programming suppliers and offer advertisers comprehensive national reach while maintaining local market presence. The retransmission consent revenue model provides some recurring revenue stability, as cable and satellite providers have limited alternatives to carrying popular local broadcast signals. However, Nexstar's moat is under pressure from several directions. Cord-cutting trends threaten the traditional pay-TV ecosystem that generates distribution revenue, as younger consumers increasingly rely on streaming services and mobile devices for entertainment and news consumption. Digital advertising platforms offer more targeted and measurable advertising options compared to traditional television, pressuring advertising rates and market share. The rise of streaming services and social media has fragmented audience attention, reducing the dominance that local television stations once held in their markets. The strength of Nexstar's moat varies by business segment. Local news broadcasting maintains stronger defensive characteristics due to its community-focused nature and regulatory protections, while national programming faces more intense competition from streaming platforms and digital content creators. The company's ability to maintain its competitive position will likely depend on successfully adapting to changing viewer habits and finding new revenue streams from emerging technologies like ATSC 3.0 spectrum usage.
Risks & safety
Nexstar presents a moderate margin of safety with manageable debt levels but faces cyclical revenue pressures and industry headwinds. • Debt and Solvency: Net leverage ratio of 2.91x EBITDA is reasonable for a media company, though total debt-to-equity of 2.9x indicates meaningful leverage. Current ratio of 1.66x provides adequate short-term liquidity coverage. • Cash Generation: Strong free cash flow of $1.1 billion annually demonstrates the business's cash-generating capability. Operating cash flow of $1.25 billion provides substantial coverage for debt service and capital allocation. • Valuation Metrics: Trading at 7.1x P/E ratio and 5.2x EV/EBITDA suggests reasonable valuation relative to earnings, though this reflects cyclical peak from 2024 political advertising. Price-to-book ratio of 2.3x is elevated relative to tangible assets. • Cyclical Considerations: 2024 results benefited from $491 million in political advertising that won't repeat in 2025, creating earnings headwinds. Core advertising revenue has been declining mid-single digits, pressuring baseline profitability.
Recent development
Over the past few years, Nexstar has executed a significant strategic transformation from a pure-play local television broadcaster into a diversified media company with national reach. The most significant development was the 2022 acquisition of a 75% stake in The CW Network, marking the company's entry into national broadcast television. Management has focused on transforming The CW from a traditional entertainment network into a sports-focused platform, adding over 400 hours of sports programming annually including NASCAR, ACC football, LIV Golf, and PAC-12 content. This strategy aims to achieve network profitability by 2026 after reducing programming costs from $560 million to $270 million. The company has also expanded NewsNation from a single evening newscast into a 24/7 cable news network in 2020, positioning it as a fact-based alternative to partisan cable news competitors. NewsNation has achieved significant distribution growth and was recently added to the White House press pool, enhancing its credibility and newsgathering capabilities. Nexstar has been actively pursuing broadcast ownership deregulation through lobbying efforts in Washington D.C., seeking to eliminate national and local market ownership caps that currently limit industry consolidation. Management believes regulatory changes could enable accretive acquisitions and operational efficiencies. The company has also been developing ATSC 3.0 technology initiatives through the Edge Beam Wireless Consortium, exploring alternative uses for broadcast spectrum that could generate significant new revenue streams by the late 2020s. Throughout this strategic evolution, Nexstar has maintained disciplined capital allocation, returning $820 million to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases while reducing share count by 9%. The company has consistently increased its dividend for twelve consecutive years, demonstrating commitment to shareholder returns even during periods of strategic investment.
NXST company profile · for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
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