Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) Earnings
Nutrien Ltd. is expected to report next earnings on August 5, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $2.93. NTR has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -15.2% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | $0.48 | $0.51 | +6.3% | $5.7B | +7.3% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $0.87 | $0.83 | -4.6% | $5.4B | +6.8% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $0.93 | $0.97 | +4.3% | $5.9B | +13.2% |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.33 | $0.11 | -66.7% | $5.1B | -0.9% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $0.37 | $0.31 | -16.2% | $5.1B | -0.1% |
| Feb 21, 2024 | $0.65 | $0.37 | -43.1% | $5.7B | +6.0% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | $0.71 | $0.35 | -50.7% | $5.6B | -0.9% |
| Aug 2, 2023 | $2.83 | $2.53 | -10.6% | $11.7B | +98.6% |
| Feb 15, 2023 | $2.62 | $2.02 | -22.9% | $7.5B | +1.7% |
| Nov 2, 2022 | $3.97 | $2.51 | -36.8% | $8.2B | -4.0% |
| Aug 3, 2022 | $5.76 | $5.85 | +1.6% | $14.5B | -1.2% |
| May 2, 2022 | $2.73 | $2.70 | -1.1% | $7.7B | +0.1% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 7, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
• Ongoing Middle East conflict disrupted global fertilizer and energy markets, but Nutrien's strategic priorities and full-year guidance unchanged. • Focus on operational excellence, increased upstream sales volumes, strong downstream retail performance. • In potash, record sales volume, increased production from low-cost six-mine network, mine automation. • In nitrogen, 92% ammonia operating rate, upgraded nitrogen product sales volumes. • In retail, well-positioned to meet crop input demand, executed growth initiatives including tuck-in acquisition. • Reviewing strategic alternatives for phosphate business, evaluating options for Trinidad nitrogen operations, reviewing Brazilian business including sales process for soybean seed business.
Guidance
• Full-year adjusted EBITDA ranges remain unchanged. • Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance $1.75 - $1.95 billion. • Potash annual sales volume guidance 14.1 - 14.7 million tons. • Nitrogen annual sales volume guidance 9.2 - 9.7 million tons. • Capital expenditures guidance $2 - $2.1 billion. • Intend to continue share repurchases at ~$55 million per month. • Expect free cash flow supported by tight fertilizer supply and demand fundamentals, business improvement, organic growth, and portfolio optimization.
Segment performance
Potash: Record sales volume of over 3.5 million tons in the quarter, adjusted EBITDA of $578 million, annual sales volume guidance 14.1 - 14.7 million tons. Nitrogen: Ammonia operating rate 92% in Q1, adjusted EBITDA $482 million, annual sales volume guidance 9.2 - 9.7 million tons. Retail: Adjusted EBITDA $108 million in Q1, full-year guidance $1.75 - $1.95 billion. Phosphate: Adjusted EBITDA $57 million in Q1, higher sulfur input costs pressured margins, sales volume guidance unchanged but further pressure expected in Q2.
Risks & headwinds
• Middle East conflict impacting nitrogen and phosphate supply, feedstock cost and availability. • Elevated natural gas costs and reduced LNG availability impacting nitrogen production and costs. • Higher sulfur and ammonia input costs pressuring phosphate margins. • Potential uneven normalization of nitrogen and phosphate supply. • Uncertainty regarding infrastructure damage and restart of idled production assets in the Middle East.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets asked about longer-term implications of Iran war and Strait closure, countries building inventories.
A: Discussed three time horizons for normalization, impact on trade, production startup, infrastructure damage.
Q: Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley asked about retail performance.
A: Corn and soybean prices tailwinds, strong customer engagement, maintained acreage ranges.
Q: Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets asked about outlook and retail EBITDA guide.
A: Feeling better than start of year, potash and nitrogen constructive, retail guidance maintained.
Q: Hamir Patel from CIBC Capital Market asked about Brazil soybean seed business.
A: Pursuing sale, focus on Brazil's broader business, intend to conclude plan by end of year.
Q: Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank asked about freight logistics and cost inflation.
A: Freight costs offset by price increases, watching fuel and shipping costs, supply-demand fundamentals at play.
Q: Chris Parkinson from Wolf Research asked about global potash markets.
A: Strong shipments, low inventories, confident in 74 - 77 million tons guidance.
Q: Steve Hansen from Raymond James asked about operational flex in potash.
A: Confident in ability to flex production and inventory to meet customer needs.
Q: Duffy Fisher from Goldman Sachs asked about strategic reviews for phosphate and Trinidad.
A: Testing market, interest in assets, potential gas development impact.
Q: Jeff Zikauskas from JP Morgan asked about ammonia prices.
A: Diversified nitrogen business, good cost position in North America.
Q: Ben Thurer from Barclays asked about weather impact on South America.
A: No major concerns from El Nino, Australia in better moisture.
Q: Edlaine Rodriguez from Missoula asked about farmers lowering fertilizer costs.
A: Not seeing in nitrogen and potash, active spring, strong grower engagement.
Q: Mike Season from Wells Fargo asked about nitrogen urea prices.
A: Watched signposts for normalization, potential elevated prices into future.
Q: Lucas Beaumont from UBS asked about retail inventory refill.
A: Well set up for spring, confident in production and distribution.
Q: Mazahir Mamadli from Rothschild & Co, Redburn asked about Trinidad nitrogen restart.
A: In sales process, gas and port challenges.
Q: Lawrence Alexander from Jefferies asked about sulfur cost sensitivity and Strait closure.
A: Sensitivity of phosphate business to sulfur costs, industry adjustment uncertain