ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) Earnings
ArcelorMittal S.A. is expected to report next earnings on November 5, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.27. MT has beaten EPS estimates in 8 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +9.5% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $1.19 | $0.89 | -25.2% | $16.8B | -4.2% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $0.73 | $0.75 | +2.3% | $15.5B | -8.6% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $0.56 | $0.86 | +53.8% | $15.0B | -6.2% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $0.58 | $0.62 | +7.1% | $15.7B | +1.7% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $1.33 | $1.32 | -0.8% | $15.9B | +1.6% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $0.71 | $1.04 | +46.9% | $14.8B | -3.6% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $0.61 | $0.52 | -15.0% | $14.7B | -10.5% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.58 | $0.63 | +8.2% | $15.2B | -1.4% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | $0.76 | $0.63 | -17.5% | $16.2B | +3.9% |
| May 2, 2024 | $0.93 | $1.16 | +24.2% | $16.3B | -0.8% |
| Feb 8, 2024 | $-2.08 | $1.18 | +156.7% | $31.2B | — |
| Nov 9, 2023 | $0.95 | $1.10 | +15.4% | $16.6B | — |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 1, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
• Safety: Multiyear safety transformation program delivering improved outcomes with advanced analytics including AI, detailed progress in sustainability report. • Key points: - Consistent structural improvements with Q1 EBITDA showing strengthening of underlying earnings power. - Compelling growth opportunities with capital allocated to high return projects like EAF investment in Dunkirk. - Positive outlook underpinned by trade policy with more effective trade protections in Europe leading to regionalized market structure and stronger customer engagement. • Growth: Allocating capital to highest return opportunities including energy transition projects, iron ore mining capacity expansion, and new value-added capabilities. • Safety: Multiyear safety transformation program with advanced analytics and focus on process safety translating to tangible improvements.
Guidance
• Expect all Steel segments to improve in Q2 relative to Q1 due to improved volumes and prices. • Underlying free cash flow annualized at over $2 billion excluding seasonal working capital investment and strategic growth CapEx. • EAF projects in Dunkirk, Sestao, and Gijon expected to deliver incremental $1.8 billion in EBITDA impact from strategic projects. • Shipments in European business expected to improve with new Tariff Rate Quota tool in effect from 1st July 2026 and CBAM being effective. • North America production and shipments expected to continue improving with progress in ramping up furnaces. • Indian operations expected to have good second quarter with gas costs hedged and price environment improved.
Segment performance
In Q1, EBITDA was $131 per tonne, up $15 per tonne year-on-year and around 50% higher than historical average margins. Underlying free cash flow was robust, running at an annualized rate of over $2 billion excluding seasonal working capital investment and strategic growth CapEx. Results across Steel segments are expected to improve in Q2 with drivers being improved volumes and prices applicable to Europe, North America, and Brazil. Carbon costs in Europe are impacted by ETS 4.2 and CBAM, with CBAM expected to benefit results from Q2 onwards. In India, operations are well-positioned with gas costs hedged and price environment improved.
Risks & headwinds
• Freight rates and logistics disruptions due to conflict and high costs potentially delaying import arrivals. • Ukraine facing high energy costs impacting Q1 results, though expecting improvement in Q2. • Mexico had operating issues in prior quarters, though evolution is positive with progress in ramping up furnaces. • Uncertainty around timing of gas availability and potential force majeure in India. • Potential delays or issues with the implementation of the new German stimulus plan affecting demand in Europe.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Walk through profit bridges Q1 vs Q2, delta in prices and volumes, and divisional cost evolution including CO2 cost implications in Europe.
A: Improvement in second quarter due to improved volumes and prices across segments, carbon cost implications with ETS 4.2 and CBAM effects.
Q: Qualitative color on European customer behavior, receptiveness to new pricing frameworks, inventory levels, and client retrenchment due to Middle Eastern conflict.
A: More activity, good order book, stronger than last year, confident in guidance, inventory not too high.
Q: Follow-up on European steel production catch-up, capacity mobilization, and Dunkirk EAF downstream additions.
A: In good position to take market share, Dunkirk EAF not focusing on downstream additions immediately.
Q: On North America Section 232, USMCA renegotiation, and current headwinds.
A: USMCA early days, headwinds remain, hope for favorable outcome.
Q: On North America Section 232 relief for Mexican, Canadian producers, and Calvert EAF.
A: No tariff relief currently, analyzing tax details, contributing steel to White House.
Q: On green steel economics in Europe, EAF project EBITDA assumptions.
A: Incremental EBITDA, focus on investment conditions, visibility in CBAM and energy contracts.
Q: On AMNS future growth optionality, iron ore production, and energy situation in India.
A: Sequencing of growth options, iron ore production expected to continue, energy situation manageable.
Q: On iron ore production in Q2, imports into Europe and logistics disruptions.
A: Imports expected to remain elevated, iron ore production expected to continue.
Q: On Ukraine CBAM impact, Mexico operating issues.
A: Ukraine not exempt from CBAM, Mexico production improving.
Q: On North America auto contracts, Calvert ramp-up, and switching from aluminum to steel.
A: Auto contracts progressing, Calvert ramping up, switching from aluminum to steel less of a concern.
Q: On Ukraine CBAM impact, German stimulus plan, and buyback thoughts.
A: Ukraine not exempt, German stimulus plan still expected to have impact, buyback potential.
Q: On carbon emissions objective, EAF project sequencing.
A: 2030 target based on announced projects, EAF projects sequential with focus on current ones.
Q: On Indian gas sourcing, gas availability, and measures to manage gas intensity.
A: Good gas sourcing, no force majeure, measures in place to manage gas availability