Mister Car Wash, Inc. (MCW) Earnings
MCW has beaten EPS estimates in 8 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +3.2% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | $0.12 | $0.13 | +8.3% | $278M | +1.3% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +10.0% | $261M | -5.1% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +10.0% | $263M | +0.4% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $0.13 | $0.11 | -15.4% | $265M | +0.9% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +10.0% | $262M | +1.4% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $0.07 | $0.09 | +28.6% | $251M | +1.1% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $0.07 | $0.09 | +28.6% | $249M | +0.4% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | $0.09 | $0.11 | +22.2% | $255M | +2.3% |
| May 1, 2024 | $0.08 | $0.08 | +0.0% | $239M | -1.6% |
| Feb 21, 2024 | $0.07 | $0.07 | +0.0% | $230M | -9.8% |
| Nov 2, 2023 | $0.07 | $0.08 | +14.3% | $234M | +1.8% |
| Aug 3, 2023 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +0.0% | $237M | +1.5% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q3 FY2025 · October 30, 2025
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Key Points - Strong Q3 performance with revenue up 6% and adjusted EBITDA up 10%, along with 3.1% comparable store sales growth for ten consecutive quarters. - UWC membership grew 6% year-over-year, with Titanium 360 tier at 25% penetration. Base membership price increase rollout completed, with positive member adoption and retention trends. - Acquired 5 stores in Lubbock, Texas, expanding footprint to 9 locations and doubling market share. - Opened 5 new greenfield locations, with 30 new stores expected to open by year-end. - Innovation focus on improving customer experience, with new major innovation planned for 2026. - Expanded marketing test in Q4 to drive incremental sales growth. - Committed to building a best-in-class team, investing in their growth and development.
Guidance
### Forward-Looking - Reiterated full-year guidance for fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. - Comparable store sales expected at high end or slightly above 1.5%-2.5% range. - Revenue near high end of $1.046 billion to $1.054 billion range. - Adjusted EBITDA at high end of $338 million to $342 million range. - Q4 includes 17 new store openings and modest sales lift from marketing tests.
Segment performance
Revenue increased 6% to $263 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 10% to $87 million, and comparable store sales grew 3.1%. UWC was the primary growth driver, representing over 75% of total sales. UWC membership increased 6% year-over-year, with the Titanium 360 tier reaching approximately 25% penetration of the total membership base. Retail comps performed in line with expectations for a low double-digit decrease, while UWC comps increased high single digits.
Risks & headwinds
### Risks - Industry competition moderation but retail remains down low double digits, raising economic sensitivity concerns. - Potential M&A multiples drop, impacting acquisition opportunities. - Weather patterns can impact comp store sales trends.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Could you help understand sales upside in Q3 and start to Q4?
A: Jedidiah Gold noted Q3 sales were positive each month, with revenue per member growth fueled by Titanium mix. October is the toughest lap, in line with expectations.
Q: What's the pecking order of cash flow usage?
A: Jedidiah Gold stated greenfield development is highest and best use of capital, with options including share buyback, debt paydown, and M&A.
Q: How does base price increase wrap into 2026?
A: John Lai said pricing is market-specific, with base price increase rollout phased, and most benefit to be realized in 2026.
Q: Color on membership trends?
A: John Lai mentioned sequential membership base flat, focusing on increasing retail traffic to convert to membership, with churn steady at ~5%.
Q: More color on marketing test?
A: John Lai and Jedidiah Gold said Q2 had mid-single-digit comp lift in pilot markets, Q4 test underway with focus on incremental sales and ROAS.
Q: Competitive intensity and retail dynamics?
A: John Lai and Jedidiah Gold discussed economic sensitivity affecting lower income demographics, and focus on growing member base and increasing member value simultaneously.
Q: Marketing test expansion and spend?
A: John Lai and Jedidiah Gold said Q4 test underway, with focus on ROAS and justifying ad spend investment.
Q: Titanium membership and market performance?
A: John Lai and Jedidiah Gold discussed Titanium launched in 2023 with rolling rollout, membership growing in 25% range, and market performance varying by operator leadership.
Q: M&A and multiples?
A: John Lai said M&A is lumpy, multiples have dropped precipitously, and industry expected to skinny down with PE-backed platforms exiting.
Q: Retail comps in Q4 and region trends?
A: Jedidiah Gold said Q4 retail comps expected to be negative, with weather and regional variables impacting comps.