LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) Earnings
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is expected to report next earnings on July 31, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $3.19. LYB has beaten EPS estimates in 6 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -46.2% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | $0.31 | $0.49 | +58.1% | $7.2B | -4.4% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | $0.18 | $-0.26 | -244.4% | $7.1B | -5.9% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | $0.81 | $1.01 | +24.5% | $7.7B | +4.3% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | $0.81 | $0.62 | -23.0% | $7.7B | +1.8% |
| Apr 25, 2025 | $0.36 | $0.54 | +50.0% | $7.7B | +3.6% |
| Jan 31, 2025 | $1.28 | $0.75 | -41.4% | $9.5B | +3.0% |
| Nov 1, 2024 | $1.98 | $1.88 | -5.1% | $10.3B | -2.6% |
| Aug 2, 2024 | $2.23 | $2.24 | +0.4% | $10.5B | +0.9% |
| Apr 26, 2024 | $1.37 | $1.53 | +11.7% | $10.0B | +3.2% |
| Feb 2, 2024 | $1.29 | $1.26 | -2.3% | $10.6B | +8.0% |
| Oct 27, 2023 | $2.03 | $2.46 | +21.2% | $10.6B | +5.2% |
| Aug 4, 2023 | $2.28 | $2.44 | +7.0% | $10.3B | -4.5% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 1, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
• Safety: Lyondell Basel had exceptional safety performance in 2025, total recordable incident rate reached historic low, safest year in company history despite maintenance/turnaround activity. • Strategic pillars: First pillar - grow and upgrade core, advance portfolio transformation with divestment of European assets on track for Q2 2026, strengthen cost-advantaged position in Middle East. Second pillar - build profitable circle and low-carbon solutions business, Moritech One construction progressing, advocate for policy frameworks, execute energy efficiency initiatives. Third pillar - step up performance and culture, value enhancement program exceeded target, achieved $1.1 billion recurring annual EBITDA in 2025, extending to target $1.5 billion by 2028. • Cash improvement plan: Surpassed initial $600 million cash conservation goal to $800 million in 2025, reduced working capital by $400 million, reduced global workforce by 7%, capital spending disciplined. Expect $500 million incremental cash in 2026, cumulative target $1.3 billion through end of 2026. • Capital allocation: Generated $2.3 billion from operating activities in 2025, issued $1.5 billion in bonds, ended year with $3.4 billion cash and short-term investments and $8.1 billion available liquidity. Prioritized safe and reliable operations, advanced strategic growth projects, provided cash returns to shareholders.
Guidance
• 2026 capex expected to be approximately $1.2 billion, with $400 million for profitable growth and $800 million of sustaining investments. • Expect additional $500 million of incremental cash in 2026 relative to 2025 actuals, cumulative target for cash improvement plan from $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion through end of 2026. • 2026 effective tax rate expected to be approximately 10%, cash tax rate approximately 10 percentage points higher. • In Q1 2026, expect modest improvements from seasonal lows, polyethylene price increase initiatives supported by low industry inventories in North America, demand seasonally improve in Europe but imports pressure pricing, near-term capacity additions in Asia wait on margins, packaging demand stable, building and construction sentiment cautious, automotive sector mixed.
Segment performance
In Q4 2025, total business EBITDA was $417 million. Olefins and Polyolefins Americas segment had Q4 EBITDA of $164 million, down from prior quarter due to higher feedstock costs, lower polyethylene margins, and maintenance. Olefins and Polyolefins Europe, Asia, and International segment had a Q4 EBITDA loss of $61 million due to seasonally lower prices and maintenance. Intermediates and Derivatives segment had Q4 EBITDA of $205 million. Advanced Polymer Solutions segment had Q4 EBITDA of $38 million, with 55% higher EBITDA year over year. Technology segment had solid Q4 results with catalyst demand strengthening and revenue increase.
Risks & headwinds
• Market conditions: Industry margins deeply depressed, factors like global trade disruptions, low demand for durable goods, lower oil-to-gas ratio, ongoing global capacity additions, increased competition from imports in Europe, structurally higher energy costs. • Geopolitical uncertainty: Impact on proxy fuels markets, keeping them volatile. • Working capital: Need to rebuild some working capital in 2026, which has been factored into cash improvement plan but may cause moderate build. • Capacity rationalization: Uncertainties around actual implementation and timing of capacity rationalization in various regions like China, Europe, etc.
Analyst Q&A
Q: David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank asked about dividend yield and potential cut to invest in projects.
A: Peter responded about cash improvement plan, investment-grade balance sheet, delayed growth investments, and regular board reviews on capital allocation.
Q: Patrick Cunningham with Citi asked about 2026 CapEx guide.
A: Peter and Augustine explained 2026 capex of $1.2 billion, with $0.8 billion in maintenance, delayed turnarounds, and future expectations.
Q: Frank Mitch with Fermium Research asked about Houston Refinery.
A: Peter said plan continues, avoided capex by shutting down, and remains open on asset monetization.
Q: Jeff Tsakowskis with JPMorgan asked about working capital.
A: Peter and Augustine said working capital was well managed, will rebuild some in 2026, factored into cash improvement plan.
Q: Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley asked about oxyfuels market.
A: Aaron said oxyfuels expected to normalize with typical seasonal improvements, watching crude volatility.
Q: Matthew Blair with TPH asked about polypropylene and polyethylene.
A: Peter and Kim discussed polypropylene demand tied to durable goods, polypropylene cost curve, and expected recovery.
Q: Alexey Yeferov with Cuban Capital Markets asked about China anti-involution policies.
A: Peter said lots happening in China with capacity rationalization and new policies.
Q: Mike Sisson with Wells Fargo asked about OP Americas exports.
A: Kim said lesser exports due to product portfolio, and expectation of pricing normalization.
Q: Josh Spector with UBS asked about Olafin's EAI shutdowns.
A: Response was Olsen's impact for EAI in Q4 was $35 million.
Q: Hassan Ahmed with Olympic Global asked about rationalizations.
A: Peter explained the 23 million ton capacity rationalization figure and related details.