Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Earnings
Green Plains Inc. is expected to report next earnings on November 4, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.51. GPRE has beaten EPS estimates in 6 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +1432.0% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $0.54 | $0.83 | +53.4% | $446M | -17.7% |
| May 7, 2026 | $-0.01 | $0.42 | +4300.0% | $446M | -16.3% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $0.09 | $0.17 | +88.9% | $429M | -3.6% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $-0.03 | $0.35 | +1285.6% | $508M | -12.9% |
| May 8, 2025 | $-0.51 | $-0.88 | -72.5% | $602M | -5.8% |
| Feb 7, 2025 | $-0.22 | $-0.86 | -290.9% | $584M | -7.3% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | $0.11 | $0.35 | +218.2% | $659M | -0.5% |
| May 3, 2024 | $-0.33 | $-0.81 | -145.5% | $597M | -8.7% |
| Feb 7, 2024 | $0.15 | $0.12 | -20.0% | $712M | -9.2% |
| Oct 31, 2023 | $-0.11 | $0.35 | +418.2% | $893M | +9.0% |
| Aug 4, 2023 | $0.05 | $-0.89 | -1880.0% | $858M | +5.7% |
| May 4, 2023 | $-0.37 | $-1.20 | -224.3% | $833M | +1.4% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · August 6, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
• Overall Business Position - Green Plains operates from a position of strength, with high-performing assets, a successfully delivering carbon platform, and supportive market fundamentals - Management maintains a disciplined approach to capital allocation across all business areas - The company prioritizes proactive asset maintenance and does not engage in deferred maintenance that would deteriorate plant health • Operational Updates - The Madison facility completed scheduled 8-10 year maintenance to replace molecular sieve beads, required for maintaining low Carbon Intensity (CI) scores to qualify for 45Z tax credits; the work resulted in slightly more downtime than a standard seasonal outage - An ongoing operational excellence program has driven sustainable corn oil yield improvements, particularly at historically underperforming sites, via small capital projects, best-in-class equipment and process chemistry improvements - Compliance and verification work for 45Z carbon tax credit monetization is progressing well, with the company prioritizing long-term sustainable and predictable cash flows from this initiative
Guidance
• Capacity utilization: The company targets 95% annualized capacity utilization. Utilization is expected to rebound to 90%+ and reach the 95% target in Q3 after spring maintenance is completed, with a slight seasonal dip in the fourth quarter typical of annual patterns • Ethanol base business: Fundamentals are solid, with the current strong margin structure expected to carry into Q3 and the early part of Q4, before normal seasonal lower driving demand reduces activity in late Q4 • Ethanol exports: After reaching 2.4 billion gallons in 2024, 2.5 billion gallons of exports is possible in 2025 and 2026. Long-term, management expects sustained annual export demand growth of 1-5%, supported by mandatory blending policies, global energy security trends, and emerging demand from maritime fuel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with limited volatility tied to Brazilian competitiveness • Corn oil yields: Incremental, sustained yield improvements are expected going forward as small-capital upgrade projects roll out across all plants over the next year
Segment performance
No segment-specific financial performance data (absolute revenue values or revenue contribution percentages) were disclosed in the provided transcript.
Risks & headwinds
• Ethanol export growth could face periodic volatility from competition with Brazilian corn ethanol producers, who may be more cost-competitive in certain regional markets • Brazilian ethanol production volumes swing annually based on sugar market dynamics, creating export market uncertainty • Base ethanol business is exposed to normal seasonal demand declines in the fourth quarter driven by lower driving activity • Ethanol margins are exposed to price volatility that correlates with corn price swings • Monetization of 45Z carbon tax credits requires extensive compliance, verification, and audit work, which extends the timeline to completing deals
Analyst Q&A
Q: Puran Sharma asked for more details on the Madison facility maintenance and asked if similar large outages are planned for other facilities in coming years. /
A: Spring outages are standard for ethanol plants to maintain equipment required for low CI scores and 45Z tax credit eligibility. The Madison outage was longer than typical because it involved end-of-life replacement of molecular sieve beads, a maintenance activity only required every 8-10 years. Management noted Green Plains avoids deferred maintenance that harms asset health, and expects utilization to rebound to the 95% target in Q3 after the work is complete.
Q: Andrew Strelczyk asked if ethanol export growth will continue to rise sharply through 2027-2028, or if growth will moderate and plateau. /
A: Management expects sustained annual export growth of 1-5% long-term, supported by global mandatory blending mandates, growing energy security demand for biofuels, and emerging demand from maritime fuel and SAF. While Brazil is adding corn ethanol capacity and may be more competitive in some markets, Brazilian production swings annually based on sugar prices, and both the U.S. and Brazil have strong domestic demand that limits export supply. Export growth will have periodic small dips but the long-term outlook is positive.
Q: Matthew Blair asked if the recent 7% above-normal corn oil yield improvement was temporary or sustainable, and also asked for an update on potential share repurchases. /
A: The improved corn oil yield is the result of ongoing operational excellence initiatives, including small capital upgrades and new process technology at previously underperforming sites. Additional incremental yield improvements are expected as upgrades roll out across all plants over the next year. For capital allocation, management is actively considering share repurchases alongside facility upgrades and debt reduction, but no repurchase program has been announced as of yet.
Q: Kristen Owen asked for an update on the monetization of 2026 45Z carbon tax credits, including current market terms. /
A: Monetization of 45Z credits is a top corporate priority, and the company has been working diligently to structure deals with comfortable, qualified partners. Extensive compliance, verification, and audit work is required to satisfy buyer requirements, which takes time, but progress has been strong and management is pleased with the process. No deal announcements are ready yet, with a focus on achieving long-term sustainable and predictable cash flows from the credits.