Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Earnings
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is expected to report next earnings on July 20, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $-0.19. CLF has beaten EPS estimates in 8 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +7.6% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2026 | $-0.44 | $-0.40 | +9.1% | $4.9B | +2.4% |
| Oct 20, 2025 | $-0.48 | $-0.45 | +6.2% | $4.7B | +1.6% |
| Jul 21, 2025 | $-0.68 | $-0.50 | +26.5% | $4.9B | +0.8% |
| May 7, 2025 | $-0.83 | $-0.92 | -11.5% | $4.6B | +0.1% |
| Jul 22, 2024 | $0.06 | $0.11 | +100.0% | $5.1B | -2.2% |
| Jan 29, 2024 | $-0.07 | $-0.05 | +28.6% | $5.1B | -0.7% |
| Jul 24, 2023 | $0.69 | $0.67 | -2.9% | $6.0B | +3.3% |
| Feb 13, 2023 | $-0.33 | $-0.30 | +9.1% | $5.0B | -3.0% |
| Jul 22, 2022 | $1.32 | $1.13 | -14.4% | $6.3B | +3.5% |
| Apr 22, 2022 | $1.41 | $1.50 | +6.4% | $6.0B | +10.3% |
| Feb 11, 2022 | $2.12 | $1.69 | -20.3% | $5.3B | -6.6% |
| Oct 22, 2021 | $2.26 | $2.33 | +3.1% | $6.0B | +6.2% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · April 20, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Order book is full, automotive OEMs booking more steel, production schedules tight, lead times moved out. Pricing lag shortened to ~two months. - Steel imports into U.S. at lowest levels since 2009, Section 232 works. Encouraged by changes in derivative products tariffs enforcement. - Shift from aluminum to steel in automotive, building products, appliances, truck and trailer sectors. - Progress on Butler Works electrical steel expansion project and Middletown Works project. - Idling of smaller plate mill at Burns Harbor and gary plate finishing line to improve utilization and cost performance. - Analyzing rare earths potential, but economics hinge on domestic refinement capability. - Partnered with AI provider to enhance production planning and order entry processes. - Upcoming renegotiation of labor agreement with United Steelworkers
Guidance
- Q2 shipments expected to improve from Q1 and remain above 4.1 million ton mark, automotive shipments expected to increase further. Selling prices expected to be up about $60 a ton from Q1 to Q2. - Q3 expected to be outage-like quarter with maximum operating leverage on volumes and pricing. - Full year expectations for volume, CapEx, and SG&A remain in line with prior guidance. - $425 million cash receipt expectation from idle property sales remains on target with two more properties going under contract since last spoke
Segment performance
Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $95 million, a $274 million increase from a year ago. First quarter shipments totaled just over 4.1 million tons, representing a recovery of more than 300,000 tons sequentially. Average selling prices increased by $68 per ton from a year ago and sequentially by $55 per ton during the quarter. About 45% of U.S. sales are linked to the commodity HRC price; remainder are under fixed price or linked to other indices. In Canada, effectively all shipments are sold on a spot price basis, but Canadian selling price is at a 40% discount to U.S. pricing. First quarter free cash flow was negative due to working capital timing, but Q2 expected to be best quarter in nearly two years with return to positive free cash flow, and Q3 expected to show maximum operating leverage on volumes and pricing
Risks & headwinds
- Impact of spiking energy costs on Q1 results. - Global uncertainty due to war activity in Iran disrupting freight lanes, driving up energy prices, destabilizing metal supply chains. - Canadian steel market still oversupplied with foreign steel dumping. - Uncertainty around renegotiation of labor agreement
Analyst Q&A
Q: Comment on price expectations in terms of changes quarter-on-quarter for the second quarter, and color on slabs shipped in first quarter and impact on EBITDA.
A: Lorenzo mentioned 175,000 tons of slabs in tail end of shipments, now done. Celso said Q2 shipments expected to improve, selling prices up about $60 a ton from Q1 to Q2, and talked about contract mix.
Q: To what extent could working capital unwind in 2Q and description of further building to meet increasing demand.
A: Q1 working capital build was ~$130 million due to AR, Q2 expected slight release in working capital as inventory reduced.
Q: On POSCO negotiations, extent of decided aspects and active dialogue.
A: Situation in South Korea changed, still engaged but less in a hurry, still want accretive deal for shareholders.
Q: On unit cash costs, exposure to diesel through upstream mining operations and hedging activity.
A: Diesel is meaningful cost component, don't hedge diesel anymore, annual impact on mining costs about $50 million (~$6 per ton), natural gas associated with mining about 20% of company's natural gas.
Q: On shift back towards steel from aluminum in autos, color on volume and impact on mix.
A: Shift happening, meaningful for volume, engineering departments seeing feasibility, ongoing process.
Q: On slab contract math and conversion costs.
A: Math reasonable with some offsets, Q2 costs ticking up due to various factors, Q3 expected to benefit from improved utilization, etc.
Q: On break costs if POSCO opportunity doesn't materialize.
A: Don't like hypothetical scenarios, focus on cash flow from operations, HBI helps production.
Q: On unit cost guidance for Q2, walk through components.
A: Q2 costs ticking up due to carryover from Q1, outages, richer product mix, war-related costs, Q3 expected to benefit from improved utilization, etc.
Q: On land sales cadence.
A: Confident counterparts acting, two more properties under contract in quarter, expect proceeds in Q2, Q3, Q4.
Q: On mix, color on plate market actions and stainless steel, electrical.
A: On plate, shut down mill for specific client, reconsolidated. On electrical, differentiated grain-oriented and no-oriented, grain-oriented produced by Cliffs with Butler project