The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Earnings
The Carlyle Group Inc. is expected to report next earnings on August 4, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.92. CG has beaten EPS estimates in 7 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +2.8% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | $0.91 | $0.89 | -2.2% | $751M | -25.8% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | $1.03 | $1.01 | -1.9% | $1.8B | +72.7% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | $1.02 | $0.98 | -3.9% | $781M | -21.2% |
| May 9, 2025 | $0.95 | $1.14 | +19.4% | $808M | -18.6% |
| May 1, 2024 | $0.97 | $1.01 | +4.4% | $599M | -40.6% |
| Feb 7, 2024 | $0.75 | $0.86 | +14.7% | $921M | +8.3% |
| Aug 2, 2023 | $0.65 | $0.88 | +35.4% | $462M | -43.8% |
| May 4, 2023 | $0.65 | $0.63 | -3.1% | $859M | +5.6% |
| Feb 7, 2023 | $0.96 | $1.01 | +5.2% | $647M | -37.4% |
| Jul 28, 2022 | $1.11 | $1.17 | +5.4% | $751M | -28.3% |
| Apr 28, 2022 | $0.98 | $0.74 | -24.5% | $1.1B | +7.0% |
| Feb 3, 2022 | $1.21 | $2.01 | +66.1% | $1.3B | +13.5% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q4 FY2025 · February 6, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Management Statement and Operational Highlights - **2025 Performance**: 2025 was a record year for The Carlyle Group Inc. with record fee-related earnings up 12% year over year, record FRE margins of 47%, $54 billion in inflows (significantly exceeding the original $40 billion target), and record assets under management of $477 billion. - **IPO Activity**: The firm was a global leader in IPO proceeds, with examples like Medline (largest sponsor-backed IPO of all time, largest healthcare IPO, largest IPO of 2025), Standard Aero, Aran Breweries, Rigaku, and Hexaware. - **Carlyle AlpInvest**: 2025 was a record year of growth, returning over $10 billion to investors, investing a record $14 billion, and closing the largest ever secondary strategy at $20 billion. - **Global Credit**: Strong momentum with direct lending having record originations, 39 CLOs priced in 2025 (most active CLO manager for US activity), and CLO inflows of $7 billion in 2025, up almost 20% from the prior year. - **Global Wealth**: Record inflows, almost doubling evergreen wealth assets under management (AUM) year over year, soft-launch of CPAP (private equity solution for individual investors) in the US, and expansion of the wealth organization with approximately 50% headcount growth.
Guidance
### Guidance - Entering 2026 with strong momentum, expecting continued growth supported by a diversified fundraising pipeline, expansion in global wealth, and improving capital markets conditions. - Will provide additional detail at the 2026 shareholder update on February 26.
Segment performance
### Segment Performance - **Carlyle AlpInvest**: In 2025, generated a record $274 million of fee-related earnings (FRE), up nearly 60% year over year. Distributable earnings (DE) were a record $319 million in 2025, up almost 70% from the prior year. For the fourth quarter, DE was $67 million, up 12% from 2024. - **Global Credit**: Delivered a record $402 million of FRE in 2025, a 21% increase from the prior year. FRE has grown at a 20% organic compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past three years. Net realized performance revenue tripled year over year, contributing to a record $481 million of DE in 2025. For the fourth quarter, FRE increased 4% year over year to $102 million, and DE was up 7% to $123 million. - **Global Private Equity**: Realized over $18 billion of proceeds in 2025, the highest level in the past three years. Strong appreciation in the firm's two most recent US buyout funds drove net accrued performance revenue to nearly $2 billion.
Risks & headwinds
### Risks - Market volatility and geopolitical dynamics could materially impact actual results. - Dependence on equity market exits and M&A transactions for realizations may face challenges. - Macroeconomic changes could affect credit quality and portfolio performance.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Alexander Blostein with Goldman Sachs asked about the sustainability of monetization momentum into 2026 and dependence on equity vs M&A exits.
A: Harvey Schwartz responded that portfolio data in January looks good for GDP growth, margins, and EBITDA generation, but markets have shown jitters; however, the economic engine feels good overall.
Q: Glenn Schorr with Evercore inquired about the credit business, credit quality, and wealth channel growth.
A: Harvey and Justin discussed the strong credit business with a diversified portfolio, positive inflows into credit wealth funds, and the wealth channel's momentum despite market nervousness.
Q: Mike Brown with UBS asked about margin expansion and segment growth drivers.
A: Harvey stated more detail would be provided at the February 26 shareholder update, highlighting the team's efforts in repositioning the platform and driving margin growth.
Q: William Katz with TD Cowen asked about capital raising for Fund IX, realization pace, and capital priorities.
A: Harvey mentioned more details would be shared at the shareholder update, emphasizing client engagement, diversification, and positioning for forward trajectory.
Q: Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research asked about CLO exposure and software impact.
A: Justin Plouffe noted CLO performance is among the best in the industry, software exposure is 6% of total AUM and not a significant driver, and the team is well-positioned to address volatility.
Q: Brennan Hawken with BMO Capital Markets inquired about AlpInvest fees and catch-up fees.
A: Justin Plouffe clarified there were no negative catch-up fees, and AlpInvest management fees were up 4% quarter over quarter.
Q: Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research asked about transaction fees and revenue upside.
A: Harvey stated more details would be provided at the shareholder update, highlighting the platform's ability to build the transaction fees business from near zero and potential upside.
Q: Brian McKenna with Citizens asked about the Carlyle story in the wealth channel.
A: Harvey discussed the global brand, strategic pivot, performance-driven solutions, client engagement, and long-term upside in the wealth channel.
Q: Ben Budish with Barclays asked about management fee growth and realization trajectory.
A: Harvey indicated more detailed information would be shared at the February 26 shareholder update, emphasizing the team's strategic decisions in realizations.
Q: Kenneth Worthington with JPMorgan asked about CLO market outlook and equity fund utilization.
A: Justin Plouffe discussed the constructive CLO market start, team's activity, and the well-positioned CLO business; Harvey mentioned broader market fragility but the team is prepared.
Q: Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley asked about credit business originations and 2026 actions.
A: Justin Plouffe discussed enhancements in origination with new hires and the durable nature of the credit business, ready to take advantage of market opportunities in 2026