Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. (CDRO) Earnings
CDRO has beaten EPS estimates in 6 of its last 11 reported quarters (average surprise +116.5% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | $0.05 | $0.15 | +225.0% | $74M | +13.4% |
| Nov 17, 2025 | $0.06 | $0.04 | -45.5% | $61M | -7.6% |
| May 1, 2025 | — | $-0.03 | — | $48M | — |
| Feb 20, 2025 | $0.12 | $-0.00 | -102.6% | $55M | -4.8% |
| Nov 15, 2024 | $0.01 | $0.05 | +388.8% | $54M | +8.5% |
| May 15, 2024 | $-0.03 | $-0.00 | +90.1% | $55M | +15.0% |
| Aug 31, 2023 | $-0.16 | $-0.00 | +97.7% | $41M | -2.7% |
| May 11, 2023 | $-0.11 | $-0.00 | +96.7% | $41M | +0.6% |
| Nov 16, 2022 | $-0.30 | $-0.32 | -6.8% | $31M | +15.1% |
| Sep 1, 2022 | $-0.34 | $-0.19 | +43.0% | $27M | — |
| May 13, 2022 | $-0.26 | $-0.69 | -164.6% | $23M | +14.2% |
| Mar 11, 2022 | $-0.12 | $-0.20 | -70.7% | $28M | — |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · July 30, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- **Overall Operational Performance** * Q2 2026 delivered the highest quarterly revenue in company history, with accelerated revenue growth compared to Q1 2026, alongside strong profitability and cash generation. * All core operating KPIs improved YoY: average monthly active customers reached ~173,000 (up 12% YoY), average monthly spend per customer rose 13% YoY to €234, and 108,000 first-time depositors were acquired (up ~40% YoY). Cost per acquisition (CAC) improved to €200, down from €217 YoY, demonstrating efficient marketing investment. * The company ended the quarter with 63 million euros in total cash (58 million euros available), no financial debt, and generated 6.9 million euros in operating cash flow during the quarter, maintaining strong cash generation capacity. - **World Cup Tournament Impact** * Overall Q2 and Q3 performance from the World Cup was materially ahead of the 2022 tournament: ex-Colombia, unique users were 56% above 2022 levels, ~40,000 new customers were acquired, total stakes reached ~63 million euros (180% above 2022), and net gaming revenue more than doubled compared to the 2022 tournament. - **Geographic Market Highlights** * Spain: A mature regulated market experiencing structural growth, with Codere Online gaining market share. Strong retention, healthy customer acquisition, and improved player values have driven outperformance against expectations, even with increased marketing investment delivering attractive returns. * Mexico: Growth in NGR was driven almost entirely by higher spend per active customer, following intentional cleanup of the customer database to reduce promotional abuse. The market has benefited from a more favorable competitive environment than anticipated, with two major competitors currently inactive. * Colombia: Following the removal of the 19% tax on customer deposits that was in place through most of 2025, NGR and deposit levels have recovered to pre-tax levels, with the company successfully re-engaging lapsed customers. Panama delivered its strongest quarter to date, outperforming internal expectations. - **Cost Structure Trends** * Marketing expense totaled 26.2 million euros in Q2 2026, falling to 37.7% of NGR from 41.5% YoY. Management expects marketing spend as a percentage of NGR to continue gradually declining over time, directly boosting adjusted EBITDA. * The company maintains a disciplined approach to capital allocation, with an active share repurchase authorization remaining in place through the end of 2026 (no repurchases were completed in Q2 2026).
Guidance
Codere Online raised its full-year 2026 guidance from prior levels, driven by broad-based outperformance across the business: - Full-year 2026 net gaming revenue guidance was raised to 255 million to 265 million euros, from the prior guidance of 235 million to 245 million euros. - Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to 20 million to 25 million euros, from the prior guidance of 15 million to 20 million euros. - The upward revision is driven by four core factors: faster-than-expected recovery in Colombia following deposit tax removal, continued outperformance of Spain, a more favorable competitive environment in Mexico than initially projected, and a stronger-than-assumed Mexican peso that has already added more than 4 million euros to revenue in the first half of 2026.
Segment performance
### By Product Segment - Casino: Generated 62% of total net gaming revenue (NGR) in Q2 2026, consistent with recent quarter trends. - Sports Betting: Generated 38% of total NGR, with a slight increase in contribution due to the World Cup tournament. ### By Geographic Segment - Consolidated: Q2 2026 NGR totaled 69.4 million euros, up 27% year-over-year (YoY). Adjusted EBITDA reached 5.8 million euros, up from 2.3 million euros YoY, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.4% (up from 4.3% YoY). - Spain: NGR of 27.6 million euros, up 25% YoY and 8% sequentially. Contributed 7.8 million euros to adjusted EBITDA, accounting for 39.8% of total company NGR. - Mexico: NGR of 36.1 million euros, up 24% YoY. It is Codere Online's largest market, contributing 52.0% of total NGR, and delivered 3.6 million euros in adjusted EBITDA. - Other Markets (Colombia, Panama, Buenos Aires): NGR of 5.7 million euros, up over 50% YoY, accounting for 8.2% of total NGR.
Risks & headwinds
- Colombia still faces tax policy uncertainty: while the 19% deposit tax was removed, overall tax levels remain higher than expected, limiting large-scale marketing investment until further potential regulatory changes. - The Mexican market has become increasingly crowded, with multiple new competitors entering the market following the exit of two major incumbents; new competitors are heavy spenders on marketing and promotional offers, creating ongoing competitive pressure. - Spain faces ongoing regulatory changes that create uncertainty for future growth. - Cash on the balance sheet is limited relative to large potential acquisition or market entry opportunities, requiring disciplined prioritization of capital allocation.
Analyst Q&A
Q: What has been the early retention performance of the 40,000 new World Cup customers, and why did CAC fall during the tournament despite expected higher competition?
A: It is still too early to give a definitive long-term retention value for these new customers, but early performance has been better than expected, with more detailed results to share next quarter. CAC fell because Codere did not overinvest in extremely expensive World Cup broadcast advertising like many competitors, and its strong existing brand drove organic customer searches during the tournament, keeping acquisition costs low.
Q: Is the sequential decline in monthly active users in Spain and Mexico despite the World Cup a concern, and what is driving this trend?
A: The sequential decline is intentional, not concerning. Management has been intentionally cleaning low-value, promotional-abuse customers from the active user base to improve overall customer quality. This is why average spend per customer and total revenue are rising even with lower active user counts, so looking only at active user counts does not reflect underlying strong performance.
Q: How is Codere approaching investment in Colombia following the removal of the 19% deposit tax, and what is the priority of this market?
A: While the deposit tax removal has restored activity to pre-tax levels and allows for strong returns on CRM and retention marketing for the existing customer base, overall tax levels are still higher than desired. Large-scale new customer acquisition marketing is currently not ROI-positive, so management is taking a wait-and-see approach pending potential additional regulatory changes after the upcoming political transition.
Q: What is the outlook for marketing spend as a percentage of revenue long-term, and how should investors think about profitability in a more stable growth state?
A: Marketing as a percentage of NGR will continue to progressively decline over time as growth moderates. Management expects to eventually migrate to the higher end of the 15-25% range common for peer online gaming companies, around 25% +/- 5% of NGR. Mature markets like Spain and Panama are already at this target range today, while higher marketing spend in Mexico (the key growth market) is pulling the company-wide average higher currently. The ultimate balance between growth and EBITDA depends on strategic priorities, but the path to higher margins is clear as growth stabilizes.
Q: How is Codere thinking about capital allocation with its strong cash balance and no debt, between M&A, market entry, and share buybacks?
A: The company is actively evaluating strategic opportunities primarily in newly regulating Latin American markets (such as Uruguay and Chile), ranging from greenfield market entry to small acquisitions. Management expects M&A and market entry will absorb more capital than share buybacks over the next year. The existing share repurchase program remains in place (no buybacks have been completed this year), and the company prioritizes maintaining strategic flexibility to pursue growth opportunities that create long-term shareholder value.