ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) Earnings
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on July 22, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.69. ARR has beaten EPS estimates in 5 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -2.2% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2026 | $0.73 | $0.76 | +4.1% | $109M | -27.0% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $0.74 | $0.71 | -4.1% | $349M | +375.3% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | $0.75 | $0.72 | -4.0% | $161M | +158.0% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $0.81 | $0.77 | -4.9% | $195M | +207.3% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | $0.93 | $0.86 | -7.5% | $177M | +211.1% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | $1.01 | $0.78 | -22.8% | $-45M | -193.3% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | $0.99 | $1.00 | +1.0% | $66M | +78.4% |
| Jul 24, 2024 | $0.91 | $1.08 | +18.7% | $36M | -32.3% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | $0.60 | $0.82 | +36.7% | $15M | -77.7% |
| Mar 15, 2024 | $0.90 | $1.07 | +18.9% | $251M | +659.4% |
| Oct 25, 2023 | $1.15 | $1.08 | -6.1% | $-178M | -2644.0% |
| Jul 26, 2023 | $1.30 | $1.15 | -11.5% | $45M | +70.8% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · April 23, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Market turbulence and MBS volatility due to geopolitical events in Q1 2026, but company delivered solid results. - Since March 31, 2026, MBS spreads and volatility improved. - CEO discussed portfolio position and strategy, noting heightened uncertainty in 2026 driven by geopolitical tensions and oil prices affecting Fed easing. - CIO discussed portfolio details, including net balance sheet duration, leverage, liquidity position, asset portfolio composition, purchase mix evolution, and portfolio rebalance in agency CMBS. - Emphasized strong case to own MBS if Fed resumes easing, balance sheet management, and strategy of stress testing liquidity, systematic hedging, and deploying capital when opportunities present
Guidance
No specific new forward-looking guidance beyond general statements about confidence in positioning, strategy, and ability to perform well for shareholders, and expectation of further spread tightening over medium term. Mentioned considering scenario analysis for horizon returns, e.g., OAS tightening impacting total return
Segment performance
Total economic return was negative 2.6% in Q1 2026. GAAP net loss related to common stockholders was $58 million or 49 cents per common share. Net interest income was 70.7 million. Distributable earnings available to common stockholders was 90.5 million or 76 cents per common share. Q1 saw raising approximately $215 million of capital by issuing common and preferred stock. Paid monthly common stock dividends of 24 cents per share per month, total 72 cents for the quarter. Quarter end book value was $17.42 per common share, down 6.5% from Dec 31, 2025. As of April 20, 2026, book value estimate was $18.05 per common share
Risks & headwinds
Market turbulence and MBS volatility due to geopolitical events. Factors beyond Armour's control that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements, as described in periodic filings. Volatility impacting capital formation and share price activity
Analyst Q&A
Q: You noted the tightening of spreads in Q2 to date. So what does the current ROE on new agency purchases look like? And where do you see the long-term equilibrium of spread settling versus swaps?
A: Looking at par and premium securities, return on equity is in the mid to high teens assuming about eight tons of leverage and hedge to a half duration. Do scenario analysis where OAS tightening adds to total return. Think spreads are still attractive, and conservatively see another 20 basis points of tightening over medium term.
Q: Can you share your view on the opportunity for dollar rolls in agencies, and how does that inform your current preference for TBAs versus specified pools?
A: TBA market specialness returned to some level but remains volatile. Use TBA roles opportunistically for total return. Prefer specified full cash flow yields for certainty of cash flows and protection from tail risk if mortgage rates turn lower.
Q: Looking at your leverage, it's been kind of consistent around the eight times level for the last few quarters. Given your commentary around the positive backdrop in terms of the technical environment and the GSEs sort of acting as a backstop buyer, does that change how you guys are viewing the appropriate leverage level at all, or how are you thinking about that in the current environment?
A: Comfortable with current leverage, increased it after spreads widened in March. Prioritize risk management, stress test liquidity, and would look to add leverage if see more spreads widening as long as not systemic.
Q: Could you provide just a little bit more color on the widening of the economic interest spread? I think it went from about 188 basis points to 194.
A: Main drivers are repo rate going down and swap rate.
Q: As a second question, just on capital formation, I guess just kind of getting a better understanding of the playbook a little bit. Obviously, when you're above book value, you're issuing off your equity ATM. But when you are below book value, do you turn to repurchasing shares and issuing preferreds?
A: It depends on price and opportunity. Factors include impact on shareholder base and expenses. Very focused on factors coalescing in decision on issuing or repurchasing.
Q: Does times of increased volatility like we saw in Q1 play any sort of meaningful role factor into issuing or repurchasing shares?
A: Generally, volatility is not positive for share price. Likely less active on issuance side, maybe more active on repurchase side during volatility.
Q: With the Fed being in a bit of a wait and hold period, given some of the conflicts of late, are you keeping an eye out for any sort of second order impacts, such as increased fertilizer prices, or increased shipping prices that may maybe force the Fed's hand?
A: Look at all secondary impacts, keep close eye on them, but it's multi-level and complex