AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNCN) Earnings
AGNCN has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of its last 9 reported quarters (average surprise +29.0% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | $0.38 | $0.52 | +36.6% | — | — |
| Apr 20, 2026 | $0.36 | $0.42 | +16.6% | $1.1B | +6.2% |
| Jan 26, 2026 | $0.37 | $0.87 | +135.3% | $1.3B | +33.7% |
| Oct 20, 2025 | $0.39 | $0.76 | +97.6% | $836M | -5.4% |
| Jul 21, 2025 | $0.41 | $-0.14 | -133.6% | $-112M | -125.2% |
| Jan 27, 2025 | $0.42 | $0.16 | -63.4% | $154M | -60.6% |
| Oct 21, 2024 | $0.50 | $0.43 | -14.9% | $376M | -46.9% |
| Jul 22, 2024 | $0.54 | $-0.06 | -112.0% | $967M | +50.3% |
| Feb 27, 2024 | $0.59 | $0.61 | +3.2% | $440M | -16.9% |
| Aug 3, 2023 | $0.63 | $0.48 | -23.9% | $309M | -30.5% |
| Feb 24, 2023 | — | $1.05 | — | $575M | — |
| Aug 4, 2022 | — | $-1.26 | — | $475M | — |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q4 FY2025 · January 27, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Key Points - Peter Federico noted 2025 was exceptional for AGNC shareholders with an 11.6% economic return in Q4 and 22.7% full year return. Total stock return with dividends reinvested was 34.8%. Favorable factors for Agency MBS included Fed policy shift, lower interest rate volatility, dissipated GSE reform uncertainty, and GSE MBS purchases. - Bernie Bell discussed financial performance: comprehensive income $0.89 per share, economic return 11.6% Q4 and 22.7% full year, leverage down to 7.2x, net spread/dollar roll income $0.35, average projected life CPR increased to 9.6%, and $356 million common equity issued in the fourth quarter. - Peter Federico reviewed the portfolio: asset portfolio up $4 billion, 76% of assets with favorable prepayment attributes, weighted average coupon 5.12%, hedge portfolio composition shifted to a greater share of swap-based hedges.
Guidance
### Forward-Looking Statements - Expect lower funding costs from rate cuts, stability in funding markets due to recent Fed actions, and a hedge mix shift to benefit net spread and dollar roll income. - Favorable macro themes for 2026 include continued supportive environment for Agency MBS, potential further actions to improve housing affordability, improved funding market, and balanced supply/demand for agency MBS with GSE purchases potentially consuming about half of the supply.
Segment performance
For the fourth quarter, AGNC reported comprehensive income of $0.89 per common share. The economic return on tangible common equity was 11.6% for the quarter, consisting of $0.36 of dividends declared per common share and a $0.60 increase in tangible net book value per share. The full year economic return was 22.7%, reflecting a monthly dividend totaling $1.44 per common share and a $0.47 increase in tangible net book value per share. Leverage was 7.2x tangible equity at the end of the fourth quarter, down from 7.6x at the end of the third quarter. Net spread and dollar roll income was $0.35 per common share. The asset portfolio totaled $95 billion at quarter end, up about $4 billion from the prior quarter, and the notional balance of the hedge portfolio increased to $59 billion at quarter end.
Risks & headwinds
### Potential Risks - Negative consequences from actions like streamlined refinance, G-fees, which could widen mortgage spreads. Geopolitical risks and changes in Fed balance sheet activity could impact the agency market.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Can you just talk about where you see spreads currently versus where you saw it in the fourth quarter? And then just help us walk through the dividend coverage.
A: Sure. Peter Federico said spreads have entered a new range. Current coupon spreads to swaps are in the 120 to 160 range, currently around 135. Dividend coverage: net spread and dollar roll income was $0.35 per share (dragged down by $0.01), ROE on existing portfolio is about 16% which aligns with total cost of capital around 15.8%, and new portfolio returns are in mid-teens which is ample for dividend coverage.
Q: I appreciate the ranges for spreads you gave. Can you talk about how you're thinking about the risk or the potential benefit that could get you either to the high end or the low end of those ranges and how that informs your decision around leverage today?
A: Peter Federico said actions like changing GSE portfolio caps, Fed balance sheet changes, or standing repo program modifications could impact spreads. Leverage decision depends on spread stability; if spreads are stable, leverage may be adjusted, but actions could push spreads to tighter or wider ranges.
Q: Peter, as you mentioned, the administration is very focused on affordability, lower mortgage rates. But supply here may be the major issue to broader affordability easing. And you did mention in the prior question, some of the things that could be in the toolkit for the administration, FHFA that could be positive for spreads. But if you were in their shoes, what would you do to address the affordability questions?
A: Peter Federico said the administration has done a lot, including guidance on mortgage spreads. They could change portfolio caps to increase capacity, which would help keep spreads at attractive levels for affordability.
Q: You talked a bit about swap spreads and increasing the amount of swaps in the portfolio during the fourth quarter. I was wondering if you could give us an update on your view going forward if you think there's room for spreads to continue widening in the swap market and sort of where you think ultimately those settle out?
A: Peter Federico believes swap spreads will stay in range but may widen further. Fed's balance sheet shift to reserve management and growing balance sheet put widening pressure on mortgage spreads, making swap-based hedges favorable.
Q: Just 2 quick follow-ups. One on capital activity today. Could you give us an update on equity issuance?
A: Peter Federico said there was no equity issuance quarter-to-date, and future issuance is opportunistic based on economics, not urgency to grow size.
Q: I just want to get your perspective on prepayment speeds, maybe at what level for mortgage rates do you think really gets the refi market moving? And would you guys modify the hedging in any way or take off some of the longer-dated hedges, if it looked like refis were really going to accelerate?
A: Peter Federico said prepayment risk is important, coupon composition and pool characteristics matter. Asset selection is critical, and they may adjust hedging with a positive duration gap and receiver swaption position to handle accelerating refis.
Q: So as we look at the composition of the mortgage market, it's more barbelled today versus what it was over its history. And in the context of the PAR coupon being close to 5%, the coupons at 4% and 5%, there's less outstanding there versus in higher coupons and lower coupons. And then also, it sounds like from the messaging from the administration, GSE purchases are going to come in at those PAR coupons. How is that environment sort of affecting your ability to, first off, pick pools in this environment where there's less outstanding at the coupons you favored and then also deploy capital into those coupons?
A: Peter Federico said there's ample liquidity in the $9 trillion market for various coupons. The GSEs' focus on PAR coupons is impactful, but there's enough liquidity to position the portfolio as needed, with current coupons being a key focus area.