AGNC Investment Corp.
- Open
- 10.70
- Day high
- 10.76
- Day low
- 10.57
- Prev close
- 10.62
- Volume
- 15.6M
- Mkt cap
- $11.6B
- P/E (TTM)
- 5.4
- EPS (TTM)
- $1.97
- P/B
- 0.9
- P/S
- 3.7
- Yield
- 13.56%
- Per share
- $1.44
- ▼Insiders net selling -$221K over the last 3 months (0 open-market buys, 3 sales)
- 🏛Institutions accumulating (13F)
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) is a Real Estate company listed on NASDAQ. The stock is up 6% over the past year. Over the trailing 3 months, insiders filed 0 open-market buys and 3 sales (SEC Form 4). Drillr has 1 published research article covering AGNC.
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) financials & analyst ratings
Fundamentals (TTM)
Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
Source: exchange market data + company filings. Figures are trailing-twelve-month or as most recently reported. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
AGNC earnings date, history & EPS estimates
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | $0.38 | $0.40 | +5.1% | $1.0B | -3.9% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | $0.36 | $0.42 | +16.7% | $1.1B | +6.2% |
| Jan 26, 2026 | $0.37 | $0.35 | -5.4% | $1.3B | +220.1% |
| Oct 20, 2025 | $0.38 | $0.35 | -7.9% | $903M | +154.5% |
| Jul 21, 2025 | $0.42 | $0.38 | -9.5% | $-112M | -127.9% |
| Jan 27, 2025 | $0.42 | $0.37 | -11.9% | $154M | -35.4% |
| Jul 22, 2024 | $0.53 | $0.53 | +0.0% | $967M | +3620.7% |
| Jan 22, 2024 | $0.59 | $0.60 | +1.7% | $440M | -7.5% |
| Jul 24, 2023 | $0.58 | $0.67 | +15.5% | $309M | -12.7% |
| Jan 30, 2023 | $0.66 | $0.74 | +12.1% | $575M | +45.3% |
| Jul 25, 2022 | $0.60 | $0.83 | +38.3% | $475M | +40.6% |
| May 2, 2022 | $0.61 | $0.72 | +18.0% | $718M | +119.0% |
AGNC insider trading activity (SEC Form 4)
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bell Berniceofficer: EVP, CFO | Sell | 5,000 | $11.10 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bell Berniceofficer: EVP, CFO | Sell | 10,000 | $11.05 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Bell Berniceofficer: EVP, CFO | Sell | 5,000 | $11.00 |
| May 14, 2026 | Bell Berniceofficer: EVP, CFO | Sell | 10,000 | $10.79 |
| May 7, 2026 | BLANK DONNAdirector | Sell | 22,000 | $10.78 |
| May 5, 2026 | Mullings Paul Edirector | Sell | 6,800 | $10.74 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Federico Peter Jdirector, officer: Director, President, CEO, CIO | Sell | 64,412 | $11.08 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Federico Peter Jdirector, officer: Director, President, CEO, CIO | Sell | 64,411 | $10.91 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Larocca Pruedirector | Grant | 17,045 | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | FISK JOHN Ddirector | Grant | 17,045 | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Mullings Paul Edirector | Grant | 17,045 | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | BLANK DONNAdirector | Grant | 17,045 | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | JOHNSON ANDREW A JRdirector | Grant | 17,045 | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Davis Morris A.director | Grant | 17,045 | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Hurtsellers Christinedirector | Grant | 17,045 | — |
Source: AGNC SEC Form 4 filings, latest Aug 21, 2026. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
See the full AGNC insider & 13F page →AGNC Investment Corp. company profile
Overview
AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland. Originally known as American Capital Agency Corp., the company changed its name to AGNC Investment Corp. in September 2016. AGNC specializes in investing in agency mortgage-backed securities, which are residential mortgage loans that have been packaged into securities and carry guarantees from U.S. government-sponsored enterprises or government agencies. The company went public in May 2008 and has since become one of the prominent players in the agency mortgage REIT sector, focusing on generating income through the spread between the yield on its mortgage investments and its cost of funding.
Business
AGNC operates in the mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) sector, which is a specialized segment of the broader REIT industry. The company's core business involves investing in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are financial instruments created when banks and other lenders sell bundles of residential mortgages to government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, or government agencies like Ginnie Mae. These entities then package the mortgages into securities that can be traded in capital markets. The company's investment portfolio consists primarily of two types of securities. First, residential mortgage pass-through securities, which are the most basic form of mortgage-backed securities where investors receive a proportional share of the principal and interest payments from the underlying pool of mortgages. Second, collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), which are more complex securities that divide the cash flows from mortgage pools into different tranches with varying risk and return characteristics. What makes these investments particularly attractive to AGNC is that they carry guarantees from U.S. government-sponsored enterprises or government agencies, meaning that even if individual homeowners default on their mortgages, investors are still guaranteed to receive their principal and interest payments. This government backing significantly reduces credit risk, though investors still face interest rate risk and prepayment risk. AGNC's portfolio is heavily concentrated in agency MBS, which represented approximately $73-79 billion of its total investment portfolio as of recent quarters. The company also maintains a smaller non-agency securities portfolio of around $884-940 million, which consists of mortgage securities without government guarantees but potentially higher yields. The vast majority of revenue and focus remains on the agency MBS business, representing over 98% of the investment portfolio.
Revenue model
AGNC generates revenue through a classic net interest margin business model, earning the spread between the yield on its mortgage-backed securities investments and its cost of funding. The company purchases agency MBS using a combination of equity capital and borrowed funds, primarily through repurchase agreements (repos), which are short-term collateralized borrowing arrangements where AGNC pledges its securities as collateral for cash loans. The fundamental profit mechanism works as follows: AGNC buys agency MBS yielding approximately 5-6%, then finances these purchases with repo borrowings at lower rates, typically 2-4%, capturing the spread as net interest income. For example, if AGNC earns 5.03% on its mortgage securities and pays 2.91% on its funding, it captures a net spread of approximately 2.12%, which translates to income when applied across its $70+ billion portfolio. The company's revenue is also supplemented by dollar roll transactions, which are agreements to sell securities for settlement in the current month and simultaneously purchase similar securities for settlement in a future month. These transactions allow AGNC to enhance returns while maintaining exposure to mortgage securities. Several factors significantly impact AGNC's profitability margins. Interest rate volatility is perhaps the most critical factor - when rates rise rapidly, the value of AGNC's mortgage securities declines faster than its hedging instruments can offset, creating losses. Mortgage spread movements directly affect profitability, as wider spreads between mortgage yields and Treasury rates improve returns while tighter spreads compress margins. Prepayment speeds also matter significantly - when homeowners refinance their mortgages rapidly due to falling rates, AGNC must reinvest the returned principal at potentially lower yields. Federal Reserve monetary policy affects both funding costs and the shape of the yield curve, while regulatory changes for banks can impact demand for agency MBS, affecting pricing and spreads.
Competitive moat
AGNC operates in a highly competitive sector with limited sustainable competitive advantages. The agency mortgage REIT business is characterized by relatively commoditized investments since all players have access to the same government-guaranteed mortgage securities through established markets. The company's primary competitive advantages are operational rather than structural. AGNC's main strengths include its scale and operational efficiency, with a $70+ billion portfolio that provides economies of scale in funding and operations. The company has developed sophisticated risk management capabilities, particularly in hedging interest rate exposure through a combination of Treasury futures, interest rate swaps, and swaptions. Management's expertise in asset selection within the agency MBS universe, focusing on securities with favorable prepayment characteristics, provides some differentiation. However, these advantages are not particularly durable. The company faces intense competition from other mortgage REITs, banks, insurance companies, and asset managers, all competing for the same pool of agency MBS. Funding markets are highly competitive, and AGNC's repo financing costs are largely determined by market rates rather than company-specific factors. The business model is also vulnerable to regulatory changes that could affect bank capital requirements or GSE operations, potentially altering the competitive landscape. The most significant competitive threat comes from banks potentially increasing their agency MBS holdings if regulatory capital requirements become less onerous, as they have lower funding costs than mortgage REITs. Additionally, direct government policy changes regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could fundamentally alter the agency MBS market structure. The company's moat is therefore relatively narrow, relying primarily on management execution and operational efficiency rather than sustainable structural advantages.
Risks & safety
AGNC presents a moderate margin of safety profile with several key considerations: **Solvency and Liquidity:** • Strong liquidity position with $1.7 billion in cash and short-term investments and $5-6 billion in unencumbered agency MBS • High leverage at 7.3x tangible equity, though typical for the mortgage REIT sector • Debt-to-equity ratio of 8.3x reflects the repo-financed business model • No traditional debt maturity risk due to short-term repo funding structure **Valuation Metrics:** • Price-to-book ratio of 0.88 suggests trading below tangible book value • Forward P/E of approximately 17-44x depending on quarter, reflecting earnings volatility • Expected ROE of 17-22% appears reasonable relative to cost of capital **Other Considerations:** • REIT structure requires 90% dividend payout, limiting retained earnings for growth • Interest rate sensitivity creates significant book value volatility • Government guarantee on underlying assets provides credit protection • Regulatory and policy risks around GSE conservatorship remain elevated
Recent development
Over the past few years, AGNC has implemented several strategic initiatives to navigate the challenging interest rate environment. The company has significantly shifted its portfolio composition toward higher-coupon securities, reducing holdings in 4.5% and lower coupon mortgages by $6 billion while adding approximately $8 billion in 5% and higher coupon securities. This repositioning helps reduce prepayment risk and improves yield in a higher rate environment. AGNC has also evolved its hedging strategy, moving from a primarily swap-based approach to a more balanced mix that now includes 40-53% Treasury-based hedges and 47-60% swap-based hedges. This shift provides better protection against interest rate volatility while maintaining flexibility to adjust as market conditions change. The company increased its hedge ratio to 91% to provide more comprehensive interest rate protection. The company has been opportunistically raising capital through its at-the-market (ATM) equity offering program, raising approximately $2 billion in 2024 and $781 million in Q3 2024 alone. This capital raising has been focused on maintaining appropriate leverage levels and taking advantage of accretive opportunities when the stock trades near or above book value. AGNC has also enhanced its focus on asset quality and prepayment protection, with 77% of its current portfolio consisting of securities with favorable prepayment characteristics. The company has concentrated on specified pools and other structured products that offer better prepayment protection compared to generic agency MBS, helping to reduce reinvestment risk in volatile rate environments.
AGNC company profile · for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
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