AGCO Corporation (AGCO) Earnings
AGCO Corporation is expected to report next earnings on July 30, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.49. AGCO has beaten EPS estimates in 10 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +41.4% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | $0.44 | $0.94 | +113.6% | $2.3B | +3.8% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $1.85 | $2.17 | +17.3% | $2.9B | +34.8% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | $1.26 | $1.35 | +7.1% | $2.5B | -7.3% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $1.06 | $1.35 | +27.4% | $2.6B | +6.3% |
| May 1, 2025 | $0.03 | $0.41 | +1266.7% | $2.1B | -15.5% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $2.01 | $1.97 | -2.0% | $2.9B | -8.8% |
| May 2, 2024 | $2.25 | $2.32 | +3.1% | $2.9B | -2.4% |
| Oct 31, 2023 | $3.30 | $3.97 | +20.3% | $3.5B | -0.2% |
| Jul 27, 2023 | $3.73 | $4.29 | +15.0% | $3.8B | +12.3% |
| May 2, 2023 | $2.70 | $3.51 | +30.0% | $3.3B | +5.4% |
| Feb 7, 2023 | $3.90 | $4.47 | +14.6% | $3.9B | +4.0% |
| Nov 1, 2022 | $3.16 | $3.18 | +0.6% | $3.1B | -5.1% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 5, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
1. Capital allocation approach: Prioritizing reinvestment, maintaining investment-grade balance sheet, pursuing targeted acquisitions, and returning capital to shareholders. Announced evolving Agco Finance U.S. and Canadian joint ventures, sold 49% equity interest for ~$190 million, and increased share repurchases and dividends. 2. 2026 market outlook: Global agricultural markets have conservative purchasing behavior. North America large ag equipment market expected down ~15% vs 2025, small ag modestly higher; Western Europe expected modestly up; Latin America tractor volumes projected modestly below 2025. 3. 2026 outlook elements: Global industry demand at ~86% of mid-cycle, sales plan with market share gains, 2%-3% pricing, ~3% foreign currency benefit; tariff costs ~$135 million in 2026; inventory management priority; engineering expense planned at ~5% of sales; operational efficiency initiatives expected to deliver ~$60 - $70 million benefit; adjusted operating margin targeted 7.5%-8%; effective tax rate expected 31%-33%. 4. 2026 guidance: Modestly tightened full-year net sales outlook to $10.5B - $10.7B; adjusted earnings per share targeted ~$6; capital expenditures planned at ~$350 million; second quarter net sales targeted 2.7 - 2.8 billion; second quarter earnings per share targeted $1.35 - $1.40. 5. 2026 Tech Day: Strategic business update on Oct 6, live field demonstration on Oct 7 near Chicago, Illinois.
Guidance
1. Modestly tightened full-year net sales outlook to $10.5 billion to $10.7 billion. 2. Adjusted earnings per share targeted at approximately $6. 3. Capital expenditures planned at around $350 million. 4. Second quarter net sales targeted between 2.7 and 2.8 billion. 5. Second quarter earnings per share targeted between $1.35 and $1.40. 6. Tariff costs expected to be approximately $135 million in 2026, around a $90 million increase from 2025. 7. Effective tax rate expected to be in the range of 31% to 33% for 2026. 8. Share repurchase announced with approximately 15 cents per share benefit assumed in earnings per share outlook.
Risks & headwinds
1. Geopolitical developments contributing to higher fertilizer and fuel costs, reinforcing cautious behaviors across the industry. 2. Tariff environment evolving with Supreme Court ruling related to IEPA tariffs and new guidance on Section 232 tariffs, with tariff costs increasing and ultimate timing and amount of potential IEPA tariff refunds uncertain. 3. Interest rates and tighter credit conditions influencing purchasing patterns in Latin America, contributing to equipment demand variability. 4. Uncertainty around the duration and impact of geopolitical events on fertilizer and fuel costs, which could affect farmer profitability and spending.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Jamie Cook with Truist asked about cadence of earnings in North America and Latin America and pricing by region.
A: North America to stay in mid-teens margin loss for balance of year, Latin America first half headwinds and second half opportunities likely breakeven; pricing 2%-3% overall, stronger from North America and Europe, weaker from Latin America at start.
Q: Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer asked about bridge on updated guidance.
A: Prior guidance $5.50 - $6, $0.50 beat in first quarter, tariffs ~$0.25 headwind, industry softer in Latin America and Eastern Europe ~20 cent headwind, incremental freight costs ~20 cent headwind, share repurchase 15 cent positive, restructuring savings 60-70 vs 40-60 ~20 cent positive, resulting in ~$6.
Q: Meg Dobro with Baird asked about confidence in Europe strength and Europe margin progression.
A: Europe crops planted differently, dependent on war duration and fertilizer cost; Europe margins likely mid-teens for remaining quarters, lower in second quarter due to engineering expense, back half picking up with new products.
Q: Meg Dobro with Baird follow-up asked about Latin America pricing and inventory.
A: Pricing subject to market conditions, production to come down ~20% in Q2, dealer inventories reduced, working towards three-month target.
Q: Steve Volkman with Jefferies asked about production cadence and precision ag sales.
A: Production cadence with first quarter increase in Europe, Q2 North America flat, South America slowing; precision ag sales flat year over year, expected flat to modestly up full year.
Q: Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets asked about cycle views.
A: Expect replacement demand due to peak fleet age, macro drivers like biofuel policy and protein demand; cycle expected to progress with migration back to mid-cycle volumes.
Q: Kyle Menges with Citigroup asked about tariff dynamics.
A: IEPA ruling factored in, new cost calculation for 232, around $24 million headwind; not assumed refund for IEPA in EPS outlook; not assumed 301 tariffs beyond current in outlook.
Q: Kevin from Wells Fargo asked about used inventory in North America and impact of stake sale.
A: Used inventory not huge issue for dealers vs new; sale of stake accelerates Q2 cash flows, full-year contribution from portfolio unchanged, equity in earnings to disappear for entities in 27 and beyond.
Q: Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley asked about North America market share.
A: Got all-time record highest market share, gains in North America from parts/service performance, product portfolio, and working with dealers on FarmerCore distribution model.
Q: John Peter with Bernstein asked about order book by region.
A: North America order book 2-4 months depending on product type; Europe 3-4 months; Latin America ~3 months