Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) Earnings
Affirm Holdings, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on August 27, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.34. AFRM has beaten EPS estimates in 10 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +68.9% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | $0.17 | $0.30 | +76.5% | $1.0B | +4.4% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $0.28 | $0.37 | +32.1% | $1.1B | +12.7% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $0.11 | $0.23 | +105.2% | $933M | +5.7% |
| Aug 28, 2025 | $0.12 | $0.20 | +61.9% | $876M | +4.7% |
| May 8, 2025 | $-0.01 | $0.01 | +258.2% | $783M | +0.0% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $-0.21 | $0.23 | +209.5% | $866M | +7.3% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $-0.34 | $-0.31 | +8.8% | $698M | +5.2% |
| Aug 28, 2024 | $-0.48 | $-0.14 | +70.9% | $659M | +9.2% |
| Feb 8, 2024 | $0.08 | $0.04 | -50.0% | $591M | +13.5% |
| Nov 8, 2023 | $-0.70 | $-0.57 | +18.6% | $497M | +11.8% |
| Aug 24, 2023 | $-0.86 | $-0.69 | +19.8% | $446M | +9.7% |
| Feb 8, 2023 | $-1.01 | $-1.10 | -8.9% | $400M | -4.1% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q3 FY2026 · May 7, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Core Competitive Advantage (Underwriting): * Management emphasizes that Affirm's multi-year investment in sophisticated AI-powered underwriting capabilities is a durable, underappreciated competitive advantage. Many competitors have underestimated the difficulty of building consistent, strong underwriting performance, and have failed to match Affirm's results. Consistent quarterly unit economic performance is the direct output of sustained work by Affirm's AI and research teams. - Network Effects and Flywheel Growth: * Growth in transactions per active user is driven by two key network effect vectors: expanding merchant reach (which increases consumer awareness of Affirm's no-late-fee value proposition) and growing consumer card adoption, which drives more frequent usage. Growing consumer trust and repeated use further accelerates the network flywheel. - 0% APR Product Strategy: * While 0% APR loans have lower margin than interest-bearing products, they also carry lower typical credit costs, creating a favorable tradeoff for Affirm. Management views 0% products as a complementary offering to the interest-bearing loan book, and a critical ingredient to drive merchant conversion, with all of Affirm's largest merchant programs already utilizing 0% options. - Affirm Card Progress: * Current active card users have slightly higher average credit quality than core Affirm consumers, as underwriting for the card remains intentionally conservative. Card users have ~40% higher transaction frequency than casual non-card users, with broader, more even category usage compared to casual users. Growth in card adoption is driven by organic re-engagement of existing Affirm consumers, not paid user acquisition; continuous product optimization (multivariate testing, friction reduction, underwriting refinement) drives ongoing gains in adoption and usage. - Adaptive Checkout: * Adaptive checkout is progressing well, and management remains fully committed to the strategy. It is now packaged as a unified offering with Boost, and will be rebranded simply as Affirm Checkout. Affirm's AI dynamically optimizes checkout settings for each consumer, and management expects it to become the default offering for merchants. Full details will be shared at the upcoming investor forum. - Forward Flow Funding: * Affirm's forward flow funding base is heavily weighted toward stable, permanent capital sources. The largest counterparty is Affirm's joint venture with Sixth Street, followed by large pension funds and insurance companies, with minimal exposure to volatile liquid retail vehicles. Demand for Affirm loans from whole loan buyers remains strong, with high repeat renewal rates, due to consistent credit outcomes.
Guidance
- Management is incrementally more positive on Q4 fiscal year 2024 growth rate in updated guidance, despite a tougher year-over-year comparable that creates a several percentage point growth headwind from the sunset of a top 3 merchant in Q1. - Management expects that Q4's growth rate will not act as a ceiling for future growth, as comparable periods will become much easier starting in fiscal 2027, when growth will compare against similar business levels rather than the pre-sunset high base.
Segment performance
No detailed segment-level financial performance data (absolute revenue or revenue contribution percentage) was provided in the provided transcript excerpt.
Risks & headwinds
No explicit discussion of new material business risks or operational failures was included in the provided transcript excerpt.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Connor Allen (JPMorgan) asked management to decompose the sustained 20%+ growth in transactions per active user, including cohort behavior and engagement drivers. /
A: Levchin explained that growth comes from two core network effect vectors: growing merchant reach increases consumer awareness of Affirm's value proposition, driving more sign-ups, and increasing card adoption among existing users leads to much higher transaction frequency. He noted full detailed breakdowns will be provided at the upcoming investor forum. (191 characters)
Q: James Fawcett (Morgan Stanley) asked about the ceiling for 0% APR product mix and whether the margin gap between 0% and other products can close over time. /
A: Management confirmed 0% products have lower revenue today, but also carry lower credit costs, creating an attractive tradeoff that complements the higher-margin interest-bearing loan book. As more merchants adopt 0% programs to drive sales, network effects will improve the product's value, and management is actively leaning into 0% offerings across the business, including Affirm Card. (267 characters)
Q: Zach (Citizens Capital Markets) asked for an update on the profile of Affirm Card users and progress toward the medium-term target of $10B GMV and 7.5M active users. /
A: Levchin noted current card users have slightly higher average credit quality than core Affirm consumers due to conservative initial underwriting, with 40% higher transaction frequency and broader category usage than casual users. Full updates will be shared at the investor forum. (216 characters)
Q: Kyle Peterson (Needham) asked for the composition and relative sizing of Affirm's forward flow funding counterparties, particularly regarding exposure to volatile vehicles. /
A: Affirm's Head of Capital Markets explained the base is heavily weighted away from volatile liquid vehicles. The largest counterparty is the Sixth Street joint venture, followed by large pension funds and insurance companies. Demand remains high with strong renewal rates, as buyers value Affirm's consistent credit outcomes. (221 characters)
Q: John Hetch (Jefferies) asked how Affirm's competitive positioning is changing as the BNPL industry matures. /
A: Management noted that consistent compounding of reliable performance over many years, keeping promises to consumers, merchants and capital markets, has built a large durable lead. Growing consumer trust has turned Affirm into a preferred general-purpose credit tool for many users, making growth easier over time, while many competitors have shifted strategies and failed to deliver consistent results. (243 characters)