The AES Corporation (AES) Earnings
The AES Corporation is expected to report next earnings on July 30, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.52. AES has beaten EPS estimates in 9 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +11.3% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | $0.50 | $0.68 | +36.0% | $3.2B | +2.4% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $0.71 | $0.75 | +5.3% | $3.4B | -0.5% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $0.39 | $0.51 | +30.8% | $2.9B | -15.2% |
| May 1, 2025 | $0.37 | $0.27 | -27.0% | $2.9B | -4.0% |
| Feb 28, 2025 | $0.35 | $0.54 | +54.3% | $3.0B | -3.5% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | $0.64 | $0.71 | +10.9% | $3.3B | -5.0% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | $0.36 | $0.38 | +5.6% | $2.9B | -7.7% |
| May 2, 2024 | $0.34 | $0.50 | +47.1% | $3.1B | -3.5% |
| Nov 2, 2023 | $0.55 | $0.60 | +9.1% | $3.4B | +5.6% |
| Aug 3, 2023 | $0.25 | $0.21 | -16.0% | $3.0B | -14.3% |
| May 4, 2023 | $0.23 | $0.22 | -4.3% | $3.2B | +14.1% |
| Feb 27, 2023 | $0.46 | $0.49 | +6.5% | $3.1B | +30.5% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q3 FY2025 · November 5, 2025
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Management Statement and Operational Highlights - Reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance for adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, and parent free cash flow. - Confident in signing 4 gigawatts of new PPAs in 2025, with 2.2 gigawatts signed year-to-date and advanced negotiations on large projects. - On track to complete 3.2 gigawatts of construction projects in 2025, with 2.9 gigawatts completed year-to-date. - Renewables EBITDA increased 46% year-to-date, driven by new projects and economies of scale. - In Indiana, a partial settlement agreement was filed in October with the IURC, and an IRP was filed with a 20-year outlook for the generation portfolio. In Ohio, a distribution rate review settlement was filed with an annual revenue increase of ~$168 million. - Completed the sale of AES Brazil and sell-downs of AES Ohio and the Global Insurance business, with a cost savings program achieving $150 million in 2025 and on track for $300 million in 2026.
Guidance
### Guidance - Reaffirmed full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA range of $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion, with year-to-date progress already over three-quarters of the midpoint. - Adjusted EPS guidance of $2.10 to $2.26. - Target to sign 4 gigawatts of new PPAs in 2025, with 2.2 gigawatts signed year-to-date and 1.8 gigawatts expected before year-end. - Plan to complete 3.2 gigawatts of construction projects in 2025, with 4.8 gigawatts of backlog under construction. - Long-term growth rate of 5% to 7% for adjusted EBITDA through 2027, with an incremental $400 million of EBITDA expected beyond 2027 from projects online in 2027 or under construction at the end of 2027.
Segment performance
### Segment Performance - **Renewables SBU**: Year-to-date, renewables EBITDA increased by 46%. Driven by 3 gigawatts of new capacity online since Q3 2024, cost reductions, and pipeline maturity. Organic growth of new projects and economies of scale contributed significantly to revenue. - **Utilities SBU**: Focused on serving customers with affordable and reliable power. In Indiana, a rate review was filed with the IURC, and in Ohio, a distribution rate review settlement was filed. Rate base investments were made to improve reliability and customer experience. - **Energy Infrastructure SBU**: Higher EBITDA due to the acquisition of the Cochrane coal plant and the commencement of operations at the Gatun gas plant. Partially offset by Chile renewable assets moving to the renewables segment. - **New Energy Technologies SBU**: EBITDA was relatively flat compared to the prior year with no material drivers.
Risks & headwinds
### Risks - Factors that may cause future results to differ materially from forward-looking statements, including regulatory changes, supply chain issues, and timing of tax credit recognition.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Nick Campanella from Barclays asked about long-term growth and $400 million EBITDA beyond 2027.
A: Steve Coughlin responded that the $400 million is from projects online in 2027 or under construction at the end of 2027, and the 5% to 7% guidance is derisked with strong contracted generation and utility rate base growth. -
Q: David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley asked about demand acceleration post-treasury guidance and data center interest in renewables.
A: Andres Gluski noted strong interest, projects are fewer but larger, focusing on quality and safe harbor projects with strong demand for renewables. -
Q: Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies asked about utility opportunities and powered land.
A: Ricardo Falu discussed advanced negotiations in Indiana and Ohio, with IRP scenarios and powered land being a co-located opportunity with ongoing PPAs. -
Q: Dimple Gosai from Bank of America asked about data center PPA returns and hyperscaler strategies.
A: Steve Coughlin and Andres Gluski responded that data center PPAs have high returns in the upper end of the 12%-15% range, with a secure supply chain and favorable arrangements. -
Q: Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research asked about EBITDA framework and focus.
A: Stephen Coughlin stated EBITDA is the best measure, with a significant inflection in EBITDA driven by a scaled operating portfolio and cost savings. -
Q: Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho asked about outlook beyond 3 years and powered land.
A: Stephen Coughlin mentioned expecting to go out to 2028, and Andres Gluski explained powered land is a mix of build-own-transfer with ongoing PPAs.