[MDLZ] Mondelez: Q3 2026 earnings preview on Europe chocolate volumes and cocoa costs

Mondelez, one of the world's largest snack companies, sells biscuits, chocolate, gum and candy in more than 150 countries under brands such as Oreo, Ritz, Cadbury Dairy Milk and Milka[1], and this Mondelez Q3 2026 earnings preview covers results for the third quarter of 2026, ending September 30, 2026, which the company is scheduled to discuss on its 2026-10-27 earnings call[2]. In the latest disclosed period, the second quarter of 2026, net revenue rose 4.1% to $9.355 billion and organic net revenue grew 2.2%, with volume/mix contributing 0.7 percentage points[3]; adjusted gross margin was 34.0%, up 20 basis points[4], but adjusted operating income margin fell to 13.1%[5], and adjusted EPS was $0.73, down 2.7% at constant currency[6]. In July the company raised its full-year 2026 organic net revenue growth outlook to at least 2% and maintained adjusted EPS growth of flat to 5% at constant currency and free cash flow of about $3 billion[7]; management also said second-half EPS would be weighted toward the fourth quarter because cocoa cost phasing is unfavorable in the third quarter and reverses in the fourth[8]. The Drillr consensus from 12 analysts puts third-quarter adjusted EPS at $0.714, below the $0.73 reported for the second quarter, and the revenue consensus from 9 analysts is $9.985 billion[9].

Three things matter most in this report. The first is whether European volumes turn positive: Europe's organic revenue fell 3.5% in the second quarter with volume/mix subtracting 2.1 points, and management promised positive volume in the second half while also acknowledging that unprecedented heat waves hurt third-quarter chocolate consumption[10][11], which will determine when profit in the largest region stops falling. The second is whether gross profit can outrun reinvestment: second-quarter adjusted gross profit grew only 3.0% at constant currency[4], while selling, general and administrative expenses excluding special items rose $182 million[12] and adjusted operating income still fell 6.1% at constant currency[13]; management said third-quarter operating income would grow year over year[8], making that statement the first test of the full-year EPS outlook. The third is whether emerging markets can keep growing on volume as the pricing contribution fades: emerging-market organic growth slowed to 4.4% in the second quarter from 6.3% in the first[10][14], and those markets are the main support for the raised revenue outlook, so any slowdown would sharply narrow the cushion above the at-least-2% organic growth target.

Company Background and Business Structure

Mondelez is a global snack brand company whose core business is making and selling chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks[1]. It was spun off from Kraft Foods in 2012 to focus on snacking and is headquartered in Chicago; its brands span five categories, biscuits and baked snacks, chocolate, gum and candy, cheese and grocery, and powdered beverages[15], and it prioritizes resources toward the faster-growing core categories of chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks[16]. In 2025, 75.8% of net revenue came from outside the United States[17], and the company had about 79,000 employees outside the United States and about 12,000 in the United States[18].

The company is managed by region, and Europe and North America together account for about two-thirds of revenue across its four reporting segments. Net revenue in 2025 was $38.537 billion: Europe $15.027 billion (39.0%), North America $10.679 billion (27.7%), AMEA (Asia, Middle East and Africa) $7.932 billion (20.6%) and Latin America $4.899 billion (12.7%)[19]. By category, the $9.355 billion of second-quarter 2026 net revenue included $4.735 billion of biscuits and baked snacks (51%), $2.721 billion of chocolate (29%), $1.067 billion of gum and candy, $606 million of cheese and grocery and $226 million of beverages[20]. North America is almost entirely biscuits while Europe is mainly chocolate, so the two largest regions face different cost pressures and demand questions; emerging markets (Latin America, most of AMEA and Eastern Europe) represent about 40% of revenue[21].

The operating chain runs from raw-material buying to the retail shelf, with prices and promotions set in annual negotiations with retailers. Mondelez buys cocoa, dairy, wheat, edible oils, sugar and packaging, and locks in key input costs with forward purchases and derivatives[22], then processes them in about 145 plants in 49 countries, 123 of them owned[23]. Products move through direct store delivery (DSD), company-owned and satellite warehouses, third-party distributors and e-commerce to supermarkets, wholesalers, club stores, discounters, convenience stores and gas stations, and the company drives sell-through with advertising, consumer promotion and retailer trade promotion[24]; no single customer accounted for 10% or more of net revenue[25].

Financial History and Current Position

Mondelez's 2025 revenue growth came almost entirely from higher prices, while cocoa costs sharply compressed profit. Net revenue was $36.016 billion, $36.441 billion and $38.537 billion in 2023, 2024 and 2025, and in 2025 net revenue rose 5.8% with organic growth of 4.3%[26], driven by pricing while volume/mix was negative[27]. Surging cocoa and other input costs cut adjusted operating income margin from 16.2% to 13.2%[28], and adjusted EPS fell 12.8% to $2.92, down 14.6% at constant currency[29].

GAAP profit fell further in 2025, and only Latin America grew segment operating income among the four segments. GAAP operating income was $3.548 billion versus $6.345 billion in 2024, including a $1.341 billion mark-to-market loss on derivatives[28], and net earnings attributable to Mondelez were $2.451 billion, down 46.8%[30]. Segment operating income fell from $2.492 billion to $1.904 billion in North America, from $2.068 billion to $1.820 billion in Europe and from $1.192 billion to $985 million in AMEA, while Latin America rose from $532 million to $569 million[31].

Capital returns in 2025 exceeded that year's free cash flow, and new borrowing filled the gap. Operating cash flow was $4.514 billion[32], capital expenditures were $1.279 billion, dividends were $2.487 billion and share repurchases were $2.385 billion[33], and total debt reached $21.2 billion at year-end, up from $17.7 billion a year earlier[34].

In the first half of 2026, revenue growth shifted toward volume and the profit decline narrowed markedly in the second quarter. First-quarter net revenue was $10.080 billion (+8.2%), with organic growth of 3.0% and volume/mix of −0.5 points[14]; adjusted gross margin was 30.7%, down 270 basis points, and adjusted EPS was $0.67, down 14.9% at constant currency[35]. Second-quarter net revenue was $9.355 billion (+4.1%), with organic growth of 2.2% and volume/mix of +0.7 points[3]; adjusted gross margin was 34.0% (+20 basis points)[4], adjusted operating income was $1.222 billion at a 13.1% margin (−120 basis points)[13][5] and adjusted EPS was $0.73 (−2.7% at constant currency)[6], while GAAP EPS of $1.20 was above the adjusted figure mainly because of $827 million of derivative gains[5][36].

First-half cash flow was weaker than a year earlier, but the company still raised its dividend and kept its full-year cash flow target. Operating cash flow was $1.322 billion and free cash flow was $668 million in the first half, versus $818 million a year earlier[37]; repurchases slowed to $212 million[38], dividends were $1.287 billion[39], and cash stood at $1.759 billion at the end of June[40]. In July the company raised its full-year organic growth outlook to at least 2% and kept adjusted EPS growth of flat to 5% at constant currency and free cash flow of about $3 billion[7], and it raised the quarterly dividend 4% to $0.52[39].

Operating Model

Mondelez's revenue is the sum of regional volume/mix and net pricing, and each of the four regions has a different dominant driver. Net revenue can be written as each region's prior-year revenue multiplied by (1 + volume/mix + net pricing), plus currency and acquisitions or divestitures: Europe is mostly chocolate and grew through pricing (+13.9 points) in 2025 while volume fell[41], and in 2026 prices are being rolled back while the region waits for volume to recover; North America is mostly biscuits and relies on value channels, price-pack tiers and advertising and consumer promotion (A&C) to drive volume; AMEA and Latin America rely on expanding store coverage, with Latin American pricing tracking high local inflation[42]. In the second quarter of 2026, organic growth of 2.2% consisted of 0.7 points of volume/mix and 1.5 points of pricing, and currency added roughly 2.0 points more[3].

Operating income depends on the gap between gross profit and reinvestment, and input costs only reach the income statement after passing through hedges. Adjusted operating income equals adjusted gross profit minus adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses including A&C; adjusted gross profit equals net revenue minus cocoa, dairy, wheat, edible oils, sugar, packaging and manufacturing and logistics costs, and changes in market prices are not immediately reflected in cost of goods sold because of hedging and the timing of inventory consumption[43]. The research sets the transmission lag at 2 to 4 quarters: after cocoa market prices fall, older contracts and inventory must be worked through before gross margin improves. The company excludes unrealized derivative gains and losses, ERP implementation costs, restructuring, acquisition-related items and incremental costs from geopolitical conflicts from its adjusted measures[44][45].

Differences in regional margins determine which way changes in the revenue mix move profit. Second-quarter 2026 adjusted segment margins were 17.5% in North America, 14.3% in AMEA, 14.0% in Latin America and 11.8% in Europe[13], so Europe has the lowest margin and the most profit leverage if volume recovery and lower costs arrive together. In the same quarter adjusted gross margin rose 20 basis points, but SG&A excluding special items increased $182 million[12] and adjusted operating income margin still fell 120 basis points, showing that the pace of reinvestment directly offsets gross margin gains.

Cash flow depends on earnings, non-cash items and working capital, and it is seasonally weighted to the second half. Operating cash flow equals net earnings plus depreciation and amortization ($1.358 billion in 2025), adjusted for non-cash items such as unrealized derivative gains and losses and for working-capital changes[32]. Free cash flow in 2025 was about $3.2 billion, less than dividends plus buybacks combined, and the company's 2026 target is free cash flow of about $3 billion[7] with capital expenditures of up to $1.4 billion[46].

Industry and Competitive Position

Mondelez owns a global brand portfolio in biscuits and chocolate, but it operates in a highly competitive snack industry. Its 10-K says its principal competitors are food, snack and beverage companies operating globally, regionally and locally, and in many markets include retailers with their own branded and private-label products[47]; the company concentrates resources on its faster-growing core categories of chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks[16]. Public disclosures do not provide share comparisons against specific competitors, so its relative position can only be judged from how its own prices and volumes respond.

Europe's experience in 2025 shows that Mondelez's brand premium is limited under a cocoa cost shock. Cocoa prices hit record highs in 2024 and 2025, and the company raised European prices sharply, with pricing contributing +13.9 points in Europe in 2025 while volume/mix subtracted 5.3 points[41]. The 10-Q also acknowledges that elasticity from those price increases has adversely affected consumer demand, particularly in Europe[48], as consumers switch to cheaper alternatives.

In 2026 the company shifted its competitive focus back to volume, mainly through co-branded products, store expansion and new channels. Its Biscoff partnership with Lotus Bakery has launched co-branded chocolate and biscuits, Biscoff chocolate has captured 7% market share in Scandinavia, and management expects collaboration revenue to reach $500 million to $1 billion in the coming years[49]. In India, China and Brazil, about half of revenue growth comes from new store distribution[50]; in North America the company has tailored packs and margin structures for value channels, moved convenience stores to direct coverage and made away-from-home a new global priority, while gradually shifting toward a less cocoa-intensive portfolio to reduce its dependence on cocoa[51].

Core Debates

After raising European chocolate prices by nearly 14% in 2025 and cutting them in 2026, can Mondelez return Europe to volume growth in the third quarter as management promised, or will heat waves and price elasticity keep weighing on the region?

Europe is Mondelez's largest region, and whether its volume recovers determines the company's profit leverage in the second half and in 2027. Europe contributed 39.0% of 2025 revenue[19] and $1.820 billion of segment operating income[31]. In 2026, Europe's adjusted segment operating income fell 32.7% at constant currency in the first quarter and 22.9% in the second[45][13], making it the main source of the decline in company adjusted operating income.

Both volume and price were negative in Europe in the second quarter, showing that price cuts have not yet won back demand. Europe's organic growth was −3.5%, with volume/mix subtracting 2.1 points and pricing subtracting 1.4 points, compared with −0.6%, −3.2 and +2.6 in the first quarter[10][14]. The 10-Q says elasticity still reflects last year's price increases, mainly through lower chocolate volume, while lower pricing occurred mainly in chocolate and biscuits[52]; European chocolate net revenue was $1.517 billion in the second quarter, down 4.5%[20], and European adjusted segment operating income was $399 million at an 11.8% margin, down 3.1 points[13].

The debate runs from price to volume, then to plant absorption and segment profit. After Europe raised prices by 13.9 points in 2025, elasticity pulled volume/mix down 5.3 points[41]; in 2026, with retailer negotiations largely complete, prices have been rolled back and A&C increased[53], so whether volume turns positive determines European organic growth, while plant absorption and pricing together set European segment profit and consolidated adjusted operating income. Management said it deliberately controlled chocolate inventory in the second quarter ahead of an early heat wave, that share is moving positive and that volume should turn positive in the second half[54][55], but it also acknowledged that unprecedented heat waves have hurt third-quarter chocolate consumption[11]. An alternative reading is that weak European volume mainly reflects weather and inventory timing rather than damaged brand demand, in which case the fourth-quarter holiday season should show a clear rebound; if biscuits and other categories also fail to improve in the third quarter apart from the heat, price elasticity remains the main cause.

The third-quarter report needs to be read through four European figures, with volume/mix the most direct test. Readers should watch whether European volume/mix is at or above zero, whether net pricing stays below −1.4 points, whether European chocolate net revenue stops declining year over year and whether European adjusted segment operating income stops falling. Volume/mix below −2.1 points would show elasticity deepening, and further price declines alongside negative volume would show that price cuts have not won back demand.

Cocoa prices have fallen from their peak, but hedges still lock Mondelez into older, higher costs while the company reinvests all of its sales upside. Can third-quarter gross profit growth accelerate enough to return operating income to growth?

Cocoa costs were the main cause of Mondelez's 2025 profit decline, and when they leave the income statement determines whether the full-year EPS outlook can be met. Adjusted operating income margin fell from 16.2% to 13.2% in 2025[28], and adjusted EPS fell 12.8% to $2.92[29]. The 2026 outlook calls for adjusted EPS growth of flat to 5% at constant currency[7], yet first-half adjusted EPS fell 8.8%[6], so the second half depends on when gross profit outruns expenses.

Gross profit returned to growth in the second quarter, but the expense increase was about twice the gross profit increase. Second-quarter adjusted gross profit rose 3.0% at constant currency (an increase of $92 million) and adjusted gross margin was 34.0%, up 20 basis points, a clear improvement from −5.4% and −270 basis points in the first quarter, because net pricing and productivity savings exceeded higher input costs[4][35]. The 10-Q says that although cocoa prices moderated from prior-year levels, the benefit was limited because existing hedge positions continue to reflect previously contracted prices, and other inputs such as packaging, nuts, energy and edible oils kept rising[56]; over the same period SG&A excluding special items increased $182 million[12] and adjusted operating income fell 6.1% at constant currency[13].

The transmission chain in this debate carries an explicit time lag. After cocoa market prices fall, they take 2 to 4 quarters to reach cost of sales through hedge positions and inventory consumption[43], and they must also offset declining net pricing (+1.5 points in the second quarter) to arrive at adjusted gross profit and gross margin; only after subtracting A&C and SG&A reinvestment does the result become adjusted operating income and EPS. Management said cocoa phasing is unfavorable in the third quarter and reverses in the fourth, but that gross profit growth will accelerate in both second-half quarters and operating income will grow in both[8], while all top-line upside is being reinvested in Biscoff rollout, distribution expansion and innovation[57]. An alternative reading is that the profit decline mainly reflects deliberate reinvestment rather than runaway costs, in which case gross profit should keep improving while expense increases stay elevated.

Whether the third quarter delivers operating income growth is the clearest test of this debate. Readers should watch whether adjusted gross profit growth at constant currency exceeds 3.0%, whether adjusted gross margin keeps improving year over year, whether the gross profit increase exceeds the SG&A increase and whether adjusted operating income grows year over year; the third-quarter adjusted EPS consensus is $0.714, with a range of $0.684 to $0.805[9]. Gross profit growth of 3.0% or less would show the cost turn has not yet passed through, and a further year-over-year decline in adjusted operating income would mean the statement about third-quarter operating income growth did not hold.

Mondelez is betting on store expansion in emerging markets, where AMEA volume/mix added more than 5 points in the second quarter. Can emerging-market growth stay volume-led in the third quarter as pricing contributions fade?

Emerging markets are the main basis for Mondelez's raised full-year revenue outlook, and their growth rate determines how much cushion the target has. Emerging markets account for about 40% of revenue and grew 5.3% organically in the first half of 2026, versus only 0.8% in developed markets[10]; in July the company raised its full-year organic growth outlook to at least 2%, and management attributed the change to stronger-than-expected emerging markets and better execution in North America[58].

Emerging-market growth slowed in the second quarter mainly because the pricing contribution halved, while AMEA volume stayed strong. Emerging-market organic growth was 4.4% in the second quarter with volume/mix of +1.6 points, down from 6.3% in the first quarter, as pricing fell from 5.8 points to 2.8 points[10][14]. AMEA grew 7.1% organically with volume/mix of +5.2, and every category except beverages grew volume[59]; Latin America grew 8.4% organically, mainly from 7.9 points of pricing, with volume/mix of only +0.5[60]. AMEA adjusted segment operating income fell 0.4% at constant currency, with a 14.3% margin, down 1.2 points[13].

Store expansion lifts volume first and then affects segment profit through distribution and A&C spending, but public data can verify this chain only indirectly. Management said about half of revenue growth in India, China and Brazil comes from new store distribution[50], that India added 100,000 stores in the second quarter, that Brazil reaches 1 million stores and that China is weak but should improve gradually[61]; the volume/mix from these stores, combined with inflation-driven pricing in Latin America, makes up emerging-market organic growth, while up-front distribution and A&C spending then determine AMEA and Latin American segment profit. An alternative reading is that AMEA and Latin American volumes fell 2.1 and 3.2 points in 2025[62][63], so part of the 2026 volume growth is only a rebound from a low base, and the contribution of store expansion cannot be isolated in public data.

The third-quarter report should show whether emerging markets hold their second-quarter growth and AMEA its volume. Readers should watch whether emerging-market organic growth stays at or above 4.4%, whether AMEA volume/mix stays above 5 points, whether Latin American volume/mix stays positive despite high pricing and whether AMEA adjusted segment operating income returns to growth. Emerging-market organic growth below 4.4% would mean growth slowed for a second straight quarter, and negative AMEA volume/mix would show store expansion is not enough to offset price elasticity.

U.S. shoppers are still trading down to value channels and smaller packs, and Mondelez used new price-pack tiers and heavier advertising to deliver 3.4% North American growth in the second quarter. Can that growth accelerate in the third quarter and still lift profit?

Whether North American volume escapes decline determines whether developed markets can support the full-year revenue target alongside emerging markets. North America contributes about 28% of revenue and earned $1.904 billion of segment operating income in 2025, close to Europe[31], but falling volume that year cut segment operating income by 23.6%[64].

North American growth accelerated clearly in the second quarter, with both volume and price positive. North America grew 3.4% organically, with volume/mix of +1.2 and pricing of +2.2, after organic growth of only 0.5% in the first quarter[10][14]; North American biscuits and baked snacks revenue was $2.346 billion, up 2.3%[20]. Management said North America gained share in every category, value channels grew at a high single-digit rate and away-from-home at a mid single-digit rate, new products such as Ritz Drizzled and Sour Patch Kids Chews performed well, and A&C grew at a double-digit rate[65]; North American adjusted segment operating income was $462 million, up 4.3% at constant currency, with a 17.5% margin[13].

North America's profit transmission contains a built-in conflict: channel migration brings volume but also lowers unit profit. U.S. consumer confidence is weak and shoppers are moving to value channels and smaller packs, so the company has adjusted price-pack architecture, moved convenience stores to direct coverage and raised A&C, turning biscuit volume/mix positive; but lower unit profit in value channels and higher A&C offset part of the operating leverage. The company is also modernizing its North American biscuit supply chain by bringing co-manufactured proven volume platforms in-house and automating its DSD network[66]. An alternative reading is that part of the second-quarter improvement came from promotions and limited-time products while U.S. consumer confidence remains weak, and if acceleration depends on ever-higher A&C, revenue growth may not translate into profit growth.

The third-quarter report needs to show both North American revenue growth and profit growth, because either one alone is not enough to confirm improvement. Readers should watch whether North American organic growth stays at or above 3.4%, whether volume/mix stays positive, whether biscuits and baked snacks revenue keeps growing and whether adjusted segment operating income keeps growing while investment rises. North American organic growth below 0.5% would mean the second-quarter improvement did not last, and a decline in adjusted segment operating income would show growth was bought with spending.

Risks and Falsifiers

A renewed rise in cocoa prices could delay the 2027 cost improvement, and the exposure sits in consolidated adjusted gross profit and operating income. Management acknowledged that cocoa prices rose again in the second half of 2026 on below-average crop counts, speculative short covering and El Niño concerns, while noting that industry inventory coverage has risen to 10 months from 7 months in 2024[51]; the EU deforestation regulation could also raise compliance costs[67]. In 2025, inflation in cocoa and other inputs cut adjusted operating income margin by 300 basis points and adjusted EPS by 12.8%[28][29]; if the third-quarter report maintains full-year EPS guidance, reaffirms 2027 profit growth and shows adjusted gross margin still improving year over year, this risk has not materialized.

Pressure on cash flow and capital returns is the second risk, exposing free cash flow and the capacity to return capital. First-half free cash flow was $668 million versus $818 million a year earlier[37], far from the full-year target of about $3 billion[7], while the company maintained its higher dividend and holds $6.5 billion of repurchase capacity[38], with total debt of $21.2 billion at the end of 2025[34]. In 2025 the company paid $2.487 billion of dividends and repurchased $2.385 billion of stock[33], and it then raised the quarterly dividend 4% to $0.52[39]; if cumulative free cash flow catches up clearly through the third quarter and the roughly $3 billion full-year target is reaffirmed, this risk is falsified.

Persistent price elasticity in Europe is the third risk, and it weighs directly on European adjusted segment operating income. After the large 2025 price increases consumers shifted to cheaper alternatives[48], price cuts have struggled to win back volume quickly, and heat waves suppressed third-quarter chocolate consumption[11]; European adjusted segment operating income was $399 million in the second quarter, down 22.9% at constant currency[13], and Europe accounted for 39.0% of 2025 revenue. If third-quarter European volume/mix is at or above zero and adjusted segment operating income no longer declines year over year, the current concern about Europe does not hold.

The benefit of lower cocoa costs could be delayed by hedges and offset by price rollbacks, and with all revenue upside being reinvested, third-quarter profit could keep falling. This risk is exposed in adjusted operating income, which was $1.222 billion in the second quarter, down 6.1% at constant currency[13], while the full-year adjusted EPS outlook is flat to 5% at constant currency[7] and the first half fell 8.8%. Hedges still settle at older contract prices[56], and SG&A excluding special items rose $182 million[12]; if third-quarter adjusted gross profit growth at constant currency exceeds 3.0% and adjusted operating income grows year over year, this risk is falsified.

Slower emerging-market growth is the fifth risk: volume may not carry growth once pricing contributions fade, compounded by weakness in China, currency depreciation and incremental costs from the Middle East conflict[11]. Emerging markets generated $8.058 billion of first-half net revenue, or 41.5% of the total[10], and AMEA adjusted segment operating income was $282 million in the second quarter[13]. If third-quarter emerging-market organic growth is at least 4.4% and AMEA volume/mix is at least 5.2 points, this risk is falsified.

Weak U.S. consumption and channel downgrading are the sixth risk, which could keep North American margins from returning to 2024 levels. Value channels and smaller packs expanded volume but lowered unit prices and channel margins, while A&C kept rising[65]; North American segment operating income was $1.904 billion in 2025, down 23.6% from 2024[64], and second-quarter adjusted segment operating income was $462 million[13]. If third-quarter North American organic growth is at least 3.4% and adjusted segment operating income growth at constant currency is at least 4.3%, this risk is falsified.

What to Watch Next

• Europe chocolate volume recovery: volume/mix was −2.1 points, pricing −1.4 points and organic growth −3.5% in the second quarter. Volume/mix at or above zero with segment profit no longer falling would confirm recovery; volume/mix below −2.1 points would show deepening elasticity.
• Europe profit: adjusted segment operating income was $399 million, down 22.9% at constant currency, at an 11.8% margin. An end to the year-over-year decline would confirm the turn.
• Cocoa costs and reinvestment: adjusted gross profit grew 3.0% at a 34.0% margin (+20 basis points) while SG&A rose $182 million. Gross profit growth of 3.0% or less would show the cost turn has not passed through.
• Operating income and EPS: adjusted operating income was $1.222 billion (−6.1% at constant currency) and adjusted EPS $0.73, against a third-quarter consensus of $0.714. A further year-over-year decline in operating income would mean the third-quarter growth statement did not hold.
• Volume-led emerging-market growth: emerging markets grew 4.4%, AMEA volume/mix was +5.2 and Latin America +0.5. Growth below 4.4% would mean a second straight slowdown; negative AMEA volume/mix would show store expansion falling short.
• North America channel shift: organic growth was 3.4%, volume/mix +1.2 and segment profit $462 million (+4.3%). Growth below 0.5% would mean the improvement did not last; falling profit would show growth was bought with spending.
• Cash flow: first-half free cash flow was $668 million against a full-year target of about $3 billion. A clear catch-up through the third quarter with the target reaffirmed would confirm it.

Conclusion

Mondelez's results are driven by two forces: revenue is shifting from price-led to volume-led growth, while profit is held down by hedged cocoa costs and the company's own heavier reinvestment. In 2025 net revenue was $38.537 billion with organic growth of 4.3%, almost all from pricing, yet adjusted operating income margin fell from 16.2% to 13.2%[26][28]; in the second quarter of 2026 volume/mix turned to +0.7 points and adjusted gross margin recovered to 34.0%, but adjusted operating income still fell 6.1% at constant currency[3][4][13]. The key unresolved relationship is whether gross margin improves faster than expenses rise, and whether volume truly returns in Europe after the price cuts.

Between the second-quarter report and mid-October, no qualifying independent outside assessment was found. Coverage of Mondelez in that period consisted mainly of new products, the Biscoff partnership, lobbying over the EU deforestation regulation and institutional holdings news, and broker actions simply maintained existing views without citable reasoning; one European heat-wave report was paywalled and another research note was AI-generated, so neither was used. Readers therefore cannot test the four debates above against outside views, and the third-quarter report itself will be the first new evidence.

If the third-quarter report shows European volume/mix at or above zero, adjusted gross profit growth above 3.0% at constant currency with operating income growing year over year, emerging-market organic growth of at least 4.4%, and cumulative free cash flow clearly catching up with the roughly $3 billion full-year target, the current reading of a cost turn combined with volume recovery would be significantly strengthened. Conversely, if European volume/mix falls below −2.1 points, adjusted operating income keeps declining year over year, or AMEA volume/mix turns negative, price elasticity and reinvestment are weighing on profit for longer than management has described.

Sources

[1] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · business overview · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[2] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-10-13) · MDLZ 2026-10-27 call · 2026-10-13 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] MDLZ 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 highlights · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050157/mdlzearningsreleasecontent.htm

[4] MDLZ 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 commentary · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050157/mdlzearningsreleasecontent.htm

[5] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Adjusted Operating Income margin · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[6] MDLZ 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050157/mdlzearningsreleasecontent.htm

[7] MDLZ 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · 2026 outlook · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050157/mdlzearningsreleasecontent.htm

[8] MDLZ Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · H2 2026 EPS phasing · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[9] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-13) · MDLZ quarter ending 2026-09-30 · 2026-10-13 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[10] MDLZ 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Organic Net Revenue by region · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050157/mdlzearningsreleasecontent.htm

[11] MDLZ Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · stated risks · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[12] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 selling, general and administrative expenses · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[13] MDLZ 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Adjusted Operating Income by segment · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050157/mdlzearningsreleasecontent.htm

[14] MDLZ 8-K filed 2026-04-28 · Q1 2026 Organic Net Revenue by region · 2026-04-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026027915/mdlzearningsreleasecontent.htm

[15] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · product categories · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[16] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · strategy · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[17] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · global operations · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[18] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · employees · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[19] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 and FY2024 segment results · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[20] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 net revenues by product category · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[21] MDLZ Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-28 · emerging markets · 2026-04-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[22] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · raw materials and packaging · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[23] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · properties · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[24] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · distribution and marketing · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[25] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · customers · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[26] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 consolidated net revenues · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[27] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 summary of results · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[28] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 operating margin · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[29] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 Adjusted EPS · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[30] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 net earnings · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[31] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 segment operating income · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[32] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 cash flow statement · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[33] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 capital expenditures and dividends · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[34] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 debt · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[35] MDLZ 8-K filed 2026-04-28 · Q1 2026 commentary · 2026-04-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026027915/mdlzearningsreleasecontent.htm

[36] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 segment results · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[37] MDLZ 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · H1 2026 free cash flow · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050157/mdlzearningsreleasecontent.htm

[38] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · H1 2026 share repurchases · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[39] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · dividend increase · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[40] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · H1 2026 cash flow · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[41] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 Europe · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[42] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 net revenue drivers · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[43] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · commodity trends 2026 · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[44] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · segment reporting · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[45] MDLZ 8-K filed 2026-04-28 · Q1 2026 Adjusted Operating Income by segment · 2026-04-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026027915/mdlzearningsreleasecontent.htm

[46] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · 2026 capital expenditures · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[47] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · competition · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[48] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · macroeconomic environment · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[49] MDLZ Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · Biscoff partnership · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[50] MDLZ Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · distribution expansion · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[51] MDLZ Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · Q&A on cocoa · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[52] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Europe · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[53] MDLZ Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-28 · Europe retailer negotiations · 2026-04-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[54] MDLZ Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · Europe performance · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[55] MDLZ Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · regional summary · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[56] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 input costs and cocoa hedges · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[57] MDLZ Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · Q&A on guidance · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[58] MDLZ Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · FY2026 guidance · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[59] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 AMEA · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[60] MDLZ 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Latin America · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001103982/000162828026050179/mdlz-20260630.htm

[61] MDLZ Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · emerging markets · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[62] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 AMEA · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[63] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 Latin America · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[64] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · FY2025 North America · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/

[65] MDLZ Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · North America performance · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[66] MDLZ Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-28 · North America supply chain · 2026-04-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[67] MDLZ 10-K filed 2026-02-04 · commodity trends · 2026-02-04 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/