[HOOD] Robinhood: Q3 2026 earnings preview on trading revenue after a record quarter

Robinhood is a US online broker built for young, self-directed retail investors, who use its mobile app and its Robinhood Legend desktop platform to trade equities, options, event contracts, futures and cryptocurrencies[1][2]. According to the Drillr earnings calendar, the company is scheduled to report results for the third quarter of 2026, ending September 30, 2026, on 2026-10-27, although the company had not formally announced that date in its public filings[3]. In the second quarter of 2026, the latest period disclosed, total net revenue rose 32% from a year earlier to $1.31 billion: transaction-based revenue grew 44% to $776 million and net interest revenue grew 9% to $389 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $741 million and diluted EPS was $0.62, of which $0.14 came from gains on the deconsolidation of Robinhood Ventures Fund I[4]. The company does not give quarterly guidance for revenue or profit; on July 29 it only lowered and tightened its full-year 2026 outlook for Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC to $2.675 billion to $2.775 billion[5], and on the call it reaffirmed a long-term target of 20%-plus annualized net deposit growth[6]. As of October 12, the consensus of 13 analysts put third-quarter revenue at $1.418 billion (range $1.328 billion to $1.448 billion), and the consensus of 14 analysts put EPS at $0.55[7]. For comparison, the calendar shows third-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.274 billion and EPS of $0.61[3].

Three things matter most in this Robinhood Q3 2026 earnings report. The first is whether options and equity trading can hold their record second-quarter scale. Options contracts traded rose 50% to 774 million[8], but options revenue of $342 million works out to about $0.44 per contract, down from about $0.51 a year earlier[9], so the report will test whether volume can keep outrunning a lower rebate rate. The second is whether event contracts can hold $156 million of quarterly revenue after the World Cup peak. The business rose from 1% to 12% of total revenue in a year[9], and its volume is shifting to Rothera, the joint-venture exchange launched in June[10], which could change both the revenue scale and the economics per contract. The third is whether client asset growth can return to the company's target range. Net deposits were $21.7 billion in the second quarter, a 28% annualized rate[11], but management said July net deposits were only in the $4 billion range, excluding Trump Accounts, which launched in July[6], and the margin book, net interest revenue and trading activity all rest on that base of client assets.

Company Background and Business Structure

Robinhood began with commission-free trading and has grown into a broad retail financial platform that spans trading, investing, banking and credit cards. Founded in 2013 with the mission to "democratize finance for all," it was the first US retail broker to offer commission-free stock trading with no account minimums[12]. In 2025 it acquired TradePMR, a custodial platform for registered investment advisers, and the cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp[1]. On January 20, 2026, Rothera, its joint venture with Susquehanna, acquired 90% of Rothera E&C, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse[13]. The company then closed its acquisition of WonderFi in Canada[14], and on July 4 it launched as the broker for Trump Accounts, the government-led children's savings program[10]. At the end of June 2026 it had 28.4 million Funded Customers and $368.7 billion of Total Platform Assets[15].

Robinhood does not report segments; it splits revenue into transaction-based, net interest and other revenue, and transaction-based revenue is the largest. Transaction-based revenue comes from routing customers' equity and options orders to market makers, which pay a rebate per options contract or a share of the equity bid-ask spread (payment for order flow, or PFOF); crypto orders earn a rebate based on notional value, while event contracts and futures earn per-contract commissions with Robinhood acting as agent[16]. In the second quarter, transaction-based revenue was $776 million, or 59% of total revenue, including $342 million from options, $156 million from event contracts, $129 million from equities and $100 million from cryptocurrencies[9]. Net interest revenue comes from the margin book, customer cash and the off-balance-sheet cash sweep; at quarter-end the margin book stood at $21.6 billion and the cash sweep at $29.7 billion[8]. Other revenue was $143 million, including $54 million of Gold subscription revenue[17].

The company depends heavily on a few market makers, and the Rothera joint venture adds a new consolidation relationship. In 2025, rebates from market makers and exchanges accounted for 55% of total revenue, and Citadel Securities alone accounted for 13%[18]. Robinhood holds a board majority and governance control at Rothera but does not have decision-making authority over all of its operational, strategic and commercial decisions[13]; as a result, the second-quarter income statement shows $12 million of net income attributable to non-controlling interests[19]. Costs are dominated by technology and development ($256 million in the second quarter), general and administrative ($199 million) and marketing ($104 million), while brokerage and transaction costs were only $62 million[19].

Financial History and Current Position

Robinhood more than doubled its revenue over three years, and 2025 set records for both revenue and profit. On an annual basis, total net revenue was $1.865 billion in 2023, $2.951 billion in 2024 and $4.473 billion in 2025. In 2025, transaction-based revenue was $2.628 billion, including $1.123 billion from options, $901 million from cryptocurrencies, $302 million from equities and $302 million of other revenue that includes event contracts; net interest revenue was $1.514 billion, and other revenue was $331 million, of which Gold subscriptions contributed $179 million[20]. Total net revenue rose 52% in 2025, net income was $1.88 billion and diluted EPS was $2.05, and Adjusted EBITDA rose 76% to $2.52 billion. At year-end the company had 27.0 million Funded Customers and $322.1 billion of Total Platform Assets; full-year Net Deposits were $68.1 billion, a 35% growth rate, Gold Subscribers reached 4.18 million and ARPU was $171[21]. Operating cash flow was $1.638 billion that year[22], and the company repurchased about 12 million shares for $653 million[23].

Growth slowed in the first quarter of 2026 and reaccelerated in the second, but the sources of growth in both quarters differ from 2025. First-quarter revenue rose 15% to $1.07 billion, diluted EPS was $0.38, and Net Deposits were $18 billion, a 22% annualized rate[24]. First-half crypto revenue fell 43% to $234 million and was the main drag on growth[9]. Second-quarter revenue reached $1.308 billion, up 32% from a year earlier and 23% from the first quarter; total operating expenses rose 33% to $734 million, and net income attributable to Robinhood was $561 million[19]. The expense increase included one-time restructuring charges from the June reduction in force; Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC rose 23% to $641 million, and Adjusted EBITDA rose 35% to $741 million, a margin of about 57% of revenue[4].

The company's cash and capital structure expanded sharply in the second quarter even as it lowered its full-year expense outlook. Operating cash flow was $2.758 billion in the first half of 2026, and financing activities provided a net $2.086 billion[25], mainly from $2.2 billion of 0% convertible senior notes due 2029 issued on June 25[26]. Robinhood repurchased $414 million of stock in the second quarter, including $290 million tied to the convertible offering and outside its existing authorization, and ended the quarter with $5.4 billion of cash and cash equivalents[11]. On July 29 it cut and narrowed its full-year outlook for Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC from $2.7 billion to $2.825 billion to $2.675 billion to $2.775 billion, and the new range already includes costs for its two new businesses, Rothera and WonderFi[5].

Operating Model

Robinhood's revenue breaks into two lines, volume times unit rebate and client assets times interest rates, and both flow into revenue in the same quarter. Transaction-based revenue roughly equals options contracts traded times the per-contract rebate (about $0.44 in the second quarter), plus equity notional volume times the spread rebate (about 1.35 basis points, based on $129 million of revenue on $956 billion of volume), plus event contracts traded times the per-contract commission (about 1.15 cents) and crypto notional volume times the rebate rate[9][8]. Net interest revenue equals the margin book, customer cash, the off-balance-sheet sweep and credit card balances each multiplied by its yield; second-quarter annualized yields were 4.52%, 2.02%, 0.59% and 11.88%, on $66.4 billion of average interest-earning assets[27]. Volume depends on how intensely active traders trade and on market volatility, while interest revenue depends on client assets, driven by net deposits and market moves, and on short-term rates.

Costs are mostly fixed or semi-fixed, so most changes in revenue fall straight to profit. In the second quarter only brokerage and transaction costs ($62 million) and the provision for credit losses ($56 million, mainly from credit cards) moved with activity[19], so when total revenue rose $319 million from a year earlier, Adjusted EBITDA rose about $192 million[4]. The company manages costs on the basis of Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC, which were $641 million in the second quarter, including $91 million of SBC excluding the restructuring and CFO-transition awards[28]; in June it also cut about 10% of its full-time employees[29]. The rate channel is even more direct: in its 10-Q the company says the impact of interest-rate changes on net interest revenue is positively correlated, linear and proportional, and rates have no direct effect on operating expenses[30].

Cash flow responds far more to movements in customer funds than to profit, so operating cash flow swings widely. In 2025, receivables from users, mainly margin loans, rose $9.106 billion, while payables to users and securities loaned rose $3.423 billion and $4.163 billion, leaving operating cash flow at $1.638 billion, compared with negative $157 million in 2024[22]. Cash goes mainly to buybacks, acquisitions and funding the margin and credit card businesses: management said on the second-quarter call that first-half repurchases totaled $664 million[6], the company bought capped calls alongside the June convertible notes[26], and in March it signed a 364-day senior secured revolving credit facility[31].

Industry and Competitive Position

Robinhood holds an edge with young, self-directed retail investors, but its competitors span legacy brokers, technology companies and newer fintech firms. In its 10-K the company says it competes with large legacy financial institutions, large technology companies and smaller fintech entrants, lists product innovation, operating efficiency, brand, trust and regulatory licenses among the key competitive factors, and differentiates itself through vertically integrated mobile and desktop platforms[32]. Management positions the company as the number one platform for active traders and number one in wallet share for the next generation; in the second quarter Robinhood Legend for active traders passed $100 million in annualized revenue, and the Robinhood Gold Card crossed 1 million customers with more than $17 billion of annualized purchase volume[10].

Revenue concentration and the regulatory landscape both constrain the company's position, and the available material does not support a quantitative peer comparison. Because 55% of 2025 total revenue came from market-maker and exchange rebates, with Citadel Securities alone at 13%[18], PFOF rules and market-maker relationships are a structural industry risk. In prediction markets, Rothera gives the company its own designated contract market and clearinghouse[13], but the state-level legality of event contracts is still being fought in several lawsuits[33]. The available material contains no directly comparable peer financials, so share shifts against Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers, Coinbase or Kalshi cannot be quantified here.

Core Debates

Options and equity volumes set records in the second quarter, yet revenue per options contract fell about 13% from a year earlier. Can volume keep outrunning the lower rebate rate in the third quarter?

Options and equities are the company's largest revenue source, so the tug-of-war between volume and rebate rates directly shapes third-quarter revenue. Options and equities together brought in $471 million in the second quarter, or 36% of total revenue[9]. Rebates go straight into revenue with little matching cost, and every $0.04 change in revenue per options contract moves quarterly revenue by about $31 million at the second quarter's 774 million contracts[8]. The 10-Q says options revenue grew because options contracts traded per trader rose 43%, but different ticker symbols pay different rebate rates and the mix of symbols traded pulled the rate down[34].

The current baselines show strong volume and declining unit economics. Second-quarter options revenue was $342 million, up 29% (versus $260 million in the first quarter), and equities revenue was $129 million, up 95%[9]. Options contracts traded rose 50% to 774 million (from 586 million in the first quarter), and equity notional volume rose 85% to $956 billion[8][35]. That implies about $0.44 of revenue per options contract, flat with the first quarter but below roughly $0.51 in the second quarter of 2025. The transmission runs from trading intensity times the number of traders to volume, then times the rebate rate to transaction revenue; after brokerage and transaction costs that move with volume, most of it reaches Adjusted EBITDA.

What remains unclear is whether the record second-quarter volume can last. Management said on the second-quarter call that July average daily volumes in equities, options and prediction markets were similar to the record second-quarter levels[6]. The alternative reading is that a handful of high-volatility names and seasonal activity drove the record, and if trading intensity cools in the third quarter while rebate rates keep falling, revenue would drop faster than volume.

In the report, watch whether options revenue stays at or above $342 million, whether revenue per options contract holds at $0.44, whether equities revenue stays at or above $129 million, and how the company explains rebate rates and symbol mix. Options revenue below $310 million or revenue per contract below $0.40 would show the lower rebate rate overwhelming volume; revenue per contract back above $0.46 would show the concern about falling rebates was overstated.

Event contracts brought in $156 million in the second quarter, helped by June's World Cup. With that peak behind it and volume moving onto the Rothera joint-venture exchange, can the business hold that scale in the third quarter?

Event contracts are the company's fastest-growing and least certain business. Their share of total revenue rose from 1% to 12% in a year[9], and they supplied $146 million of the $237 million increase in second-quarter transaction-based revenue, more than 60%[34]. Revenue depends almost entirely on contracts traded and the commission per contract, and the business faces lawsuits in several states, so the third-quarter result will reflect both demand risk and regulatory risk.

The current baselines show volume and revenue at a high level, with unit revenue roughly stable. Second-quarter event contract revenue was $156 million, versus $104 million in the first quarter and only $10 million a year earlier[17]. Contracts traded reached 13.6 billion (8.8 billion in the first quarter), which implies about 1.15 cents per contract (about 1.18 cents in the first quarter), and prediction markets reached 2 million unique users[14]. Rothera launched in June and had traded more than 3.5 billion contracts by July 29[10]. The transmission runs from the sports and news calendar and new products to users and trading frequency, then to contracts traded, then times a per-contract commission shaped by Rothera's fees and revenue split to event contract revenue, which reaches profit after clearing and exchange fees and non-controlling interests.

The open question is whether the monthly volume decline is a seasonal return or a change in trend. FX News Group, citing the company's monthly data, reported that event contract volume fell 5% month over month in July and another 23% in August[36]. One reading is that the drop mainly reflects the end of the World Cup and that the September football season and newly launched earnings contracts can win it back; but if Rothera's revenue split or pricing concessions lower revenue per contract, a volume recovery may not bring a revenue recovery. On the regulatory side, the CFTC sued certain states in April, arguing that federal law preempts state law[37], while the tribal, state Statute of Anne and consumer class actions listed in the 10-Q remain unresolved[33].

In the report, watch whether event contract revenue stays at or above $156 million, whether revenue per contract holds above 1.1 cents, what the company discloses about volume moving to Rothera and non-controlling interests, and whether any state demands a halt or the company books a litigation reserve. Revenue below $130 million or revenue per contract below 1.0 cent would show that the second quarter was an event-driven peak or that the joint venture diluted the economics; revenue at or above $156 million despite lower volume would show that better per-contract economics can offset the decline.

The margin book more than doubled in a year and now carries net interest revenue, while securities lending income has nearly vanished and rates have come down. Can margin lending keep offsetting those drags in the third quarter?

Net interest revenue has almost no matching cost and is one of the most direct sources of profit. It was $389 million in the second quarter, or 30% of total revenue[19]. At a 4.5% yield, every $1 billion change in the margin book moves quarterly revenue by about $11 million[27]. Whether the margin book keeps growing therefore decides whether this line can offset lower rates and shrinking securities lending.

The current baselines show margin lending expanding while yields and other interest sources shrink. The margin book ended the second quarter at $21.6 billion, up 127% (from $17.0 billion at the end of the first quarter)[8][35], with an annualized yield of 4.52%, versus 4.45% in the first quarter and 5.12% a year earlier, producing $215 million of margin interest[27][17]. Net securities lending revenue was only $10 million, versus $54 million a year earlier[31], which management attributed on the first-quarter call to lower volatility and fewer IPOs[38]. Starting in February, more than $6 billion of sweep balances moved into customer free credit balances to fund margin lending[35], which lowered the funding cost of margin loans but also reduced cash sweep revenue. The transmission runs from net deposits and risk appetite to the margin book, customer cash and sweep balances, then times yields set by short-term rates, plus securities lending demand driven by volatility and IPOs, to net interest revenue, which passes almost dollar for dollar into pre-tax profit.

The open question is whether the high margin book can hold through lower rates and swings in market sentiment. The alternative reading is that the margin book depends heavily on sentiment, and in a market pullback customers would deleverage, cutting balances and trading revenue at the same time, so the second-quarter peak may not last. The company states in its 10-Q that the effect of rate changes on net interest revenue is linear and proportional[30], which means every step down in yield needs a larger balance to make up for it.

In the report, watch whether net interest revenue stays at or above $389 million, whether the quarter-end margin book stays at or above $21.6 billion, whether the margin yield holds above 4.45%, and whether net securities lending revenue turns negative. Net interest revenue below $370 million or a margin yield below 4.2% would show lower rates overwhelming balance growth; margin interest that keeps growing sequentially and record net interest revenue would show the rate concern was overstated.

Net deposits reached $21.7 billion in the second quarter, a 28% annualized pace, but inflows slowed sharply in July and August. Can asset growth still meet the company's target of 20%-plus annualized in the third quarter?

Net deposits drive platform assets and customer cash and underpin both net interest revenue and trading revenue. They feed Total Platform Assets and the margin book, which supports net interest revenue at 30% of total revenue, while Gold Subscribers pay subscription fees and are the core users of margin, credit cards and retirement accounts[11]. The company targets 20%-plus annualized net deposit growth over the long term, and management said it remained on track year to date in 2026[6].

The current baselines show strong second-quarter inflows and fast Gold growth. Net deposits were $21.7 billion in the second quarter, a 28% annualized rate, and $75.7 billion over the past twelve months, a 27% growth rate; Gold Subscribers rose 39% to 4.84 million, and ARPU rose 24% to $187[11][15]. At the end of the first quarter there were 4.3 million Gold Subscribers and ARPU was $157[39]; about 40% of new Funded Customers signed up for Gold in the second quarter[10], and Gold subscription revenue was $54 million[17]. The transmission runs from new customer acquisition and Gold conversion to asset transfers, direct deposits and retirement matches, which form net deposits; adding market moves gives Total Platform Assets, which turn into customer cash, margin balances and trading activity, while Gold Subscribers times the fee produce subscription revenue.

The open question is whether the July and August slowdown is seasonal or a trend. Management said on the second-quarter call that July net deposits were in the $4 billion range, excluding Trump Accounts, which launched in July[6]. The Motley Fool, citing monthly data, wrote that the annualized deposit pace fell from about 24% over the trailing year to 18% in July and 14% in August[40]. The alternative reading is that second-quarter inflows included one-time large transfers and post-tax-season flows, so the July and August slowdown is a seasonal return; Trump Accounts contributions and September deposits may fill part of the gap, but the change in scope could also make the total look better than the core business.

In the report, watch whether net deposits reach at least $18.4 billion (equal to a 20% annualized rate), what share of net deposits comes from Trump Accounts, whether Gold Subscribers reach 5.3 million, and whether Gold subscription revenue and ARPU keep rising. Net deposits below $13.8 billion would show a marked slowdown in client asset growth; net deposits back above $18.4 billion that do not rely mainly on Trump Accounts would show the slowdown concern was overstated.

Risks and Falsifiers

Once new businesses enter the cost base, second-half adjusted expenses could accelerate and squeeze margins. The full-year outlook for Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC is $2.675 billion to $2.775 billion[5]; subtracting the first half's $1.248 billion implies $1.427 billion to $1.527 billion for the second half, or about $710 million to $760 million a quarter, above the second quarter's $641 million[28]. The company also said that starting in the third quarter it will exclude interest expense classified as operating expenses from this measure[41], a definitional change that makes expenses look lower. This risk would be falsified if third-quarter Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC come in at no more than about $710 million and the company holds or lowers its full-year expense outlook.

Crypto trading keeps shrinking and has fallen from the second-largest revenue source in 2025 to 8% of revenue in the second quarter. Crypto revenue was $901 million in 2025[20] and fell 38% to $100 million in the second quarter of 2026[9]. The 10-Q says the number of users placing crypto trades fell 16%, notional volume per trader fell 20% and market-maker rebate rates also declined[34]; app crypto notional volume fell 35% to $18 billion in the second quarter[8]. This risk would be falsified if third-quarter crypto revenue holds at or above $100 million and the company reports that the number of crypto traders has stopped falling.

A further deterioration in market-maker rebate rates or symbol mix, or regulatory limits on PFOF, would keep volume growth from turning into revenue. The exposure is the $471 million of second-quarter options and equities revenue, 36% of the total; every $0.04 drop in revenue per options contract removes about $31 million of quarterly revenue, and in 2025 Citadel Securities alone contributed 13% of total revenue[18]. This risk would be falsified if third-quarter revenue per options contract holds at or above $0.44 and the company discloses no adverse change in market-maker relationships or PFOF rules.

If courts find that state gambling laws are not preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act, or regulators tighten rules on sports-related event contracts, the company could be forced to stop offering them in some states or everywhere. The 10-Q says such decisions would likely require the company to cease offering certain event contracts in one or more states, or across all jurisdictions in which it operates[33], directly hitting event contract revenue of $156 million in the second quarter, or 12% of total revenue, and any related litigation reserves. This risk would be falsified if the report shows no new state halts or major litigation reserves and the CFTC keeps winning favorable outcomes in its suits against states[37].

Falling short-term rates or a market pullback that makes customers deleverage would lower both the margin book and its yield. The exposure is the second quarter's $389 million of net interest revenue; the company says the effect of rate changes on it is linear and proportional[30], and every $1 billion less in margin balances removes about $11 million of quarterly revenue. This risk would be falsified if the third-quarter margin yield holds at or above 4.45% and the quarter-end margin book stays at or above $21.6 billion[27].

A sustained slowdown in net deposits would make client asset growth depend more on market moves and weaken the base for margin and trading revenue. Net interest and transaction-based revenue together account for about 89% of total revenue, and Gold subscription revenue was $54 million in the second quarter; management also warned that net deposit growth and trading volumes are sensitive to macroeconomic and market conditions and can fluctuate from quarter to quarter[42]. This risk would be falsified if third-quarter net deposits reach at least $18.4 billion and Gold Subscribers reach at least 5.3 million.

What to Watch Next

• Options and equities: options revenue against the second quarter's $342 million, revenue per contract against about $0.44 and equities revenue against $129 million[9]. Options revenue below $310 million or per-contract revenue below $0.40 would weaken the case; per-contract revenue back above $0.46 would strengthen it.
• Event contracts: revenue against $156 million, 13.6 billion contracts and about 1.15 cents per contract[14], plus Rothera disclosures. Revenue below $130 million or below 1.0 cent per contract would weaken the case; revenue at or above $156 million would strengthen it.
• Margin lending and net interest revenue: net interest revenue against $389 million, the margin book against $21.6 billion, the margin yield against 4.52% and net securities lending against $10 million[27]. Net interest revenue below $370 million or a yield below 4.2% would weaken the case; a record would strengthen it.
• Net deposits and Gold: net deposits against $21.7 billion (28% annualized) and Gold Subscribers against 4.84 million[11], plus the Trump Accounts share. Below $13.8 billion would weaken the case; above $18.4 billion without relying on Trump Accounts would strengthen it.
• Expense discipline: Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC against $641 million and the full-year range of $2.675 billion to $2.775 billion[5]. No more than about $710 million with the outlook held or lowered would falsify the expense risk.

Conclusion

Robinhood's results run on two lines: active traders' volume times the unit rebate, and client assets times interest rates. Both lines were at a high in the second quarter of 2026: total revenue was $1.31 billion and Adjusted EBITDA $741 million, options, equities and event contracts all set volume records, and the margin book more than doubled in a year[4][8]. The company holds $5.4 billion of cash and has cut its full-year expense outlook to $2.675 billion to $2.775 billion[11][5]. The central unresolved relationship is whether volume and client assets can keep outrunning falling unit economics: the options rebate per contract is below last year's, event contract volume fell after the World Cup and is moving to a joint-venture exchange, the margin yield is following rates lower, and deposits slowed noticeably in July and August.

Few outside views have appeared since the second-quarter report, and the two available pieces address the prediction market and net deposit debates while pointing to the same kind of concern. Gerald Segal of FX News Group argues that the July and August decline in event contract volume is understandable after the World Cup lifted the base, but that, given how much prediction markets have grown within the business, there is likely some concern about the direction of that trading going forward[36]. The Motley Fool author notes that net deposits were strong over the trailing 12 months but slowed month by month to an 18% annualized pace in July and 14% in August, that at either pace platform assets would not pass $500 billion until 2028, so market gains would need to close the gap, and that the author still sees the mark being reached in 2027[40]. Both treat the slowdown as real, but the first stresses how hard it is to separate seasonality from trend, while the second leans on market gains to fill the gap; no broker research with independent reasoning was found in the window since the second-quarter report, so these remain outside interpretations rather than a market-wide view.

The current understanding, that volume and client assets are enough to offset weaker unit economics, would be materially strengthened if the report shows revenue per options contract holding at $0.44, event contract revenue at or above $156 million, net interest revenue at or above $389 million on the strength of the margin book, and net deposits back above $18.4 billion without relying mainly on Trump Accounts. Conversely, options revenue below $310 million, event contract revenue below $130 million, a margin yield below 4.2% or net deposits below $13.8 billion, together with adjusted expenses above roughly $710 million a quarter, would indicate that the second quarter was closer to a peak and that both the revenue scale and the margin face a fresh test.

Sources

[1] HOOD 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · description of business · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783879&type=10-K&dateb=20260218

[2] HOOD 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · products and Robinhood Legend · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783879&type=10-K&dateb=20260218

[3] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-10-12) · HOOD 2026-10-27 call · 2026-10-12 · Drillr earnings calendar

[4] HOOD 8-K filed 2026-07-29 · Q2 2026 results · 2026-07-29 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm

[5] HOOD 8-K filed 2026-07-29 · FY2026 expense outlook lowered and tightened · 2026-07-29 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm

[6] HOOD Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · Q3 early indicators and guidance · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[7] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-12) · HOOD quarter ending 2026-09-30 · 2026-10-12 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[8] HOOD 8-K filed 2026-07-29 · Q2 2026 operating data · 2026-07-29 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm

[9] HOOD 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · Q2 2026 transaction-based revenue by asset · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm

[10] HOOD 8-K filed 2026-07-29 · Q2 2026 business highlights · 2026-07-29 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm

[11] HOOD 8-K filed 2026-07-29 · Q2 2026 net deposits, Gold, ARPU and buybacks · 2026-07-29 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm

[12] HOOD 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · company overview · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783879&type=10-K&dateb=20260218

[13] HOOD 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · Rothera joint venture · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm

[14] HOOD Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · Q2 business-line results · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[15] HOOD 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · Q2 2026 key performance metrics · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm

[16] HOOD 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · how transaction-based revenue is earned · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783879&type=10-K&dateb=20260218

[17] HOOD 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · Q2 2026 revenue disaggregation · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm

[18] HOOD 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · market maker revenue concentration · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783879&type=10-K&dateb=20260218

[19] HOOD 8-K filed 2026-07-29 · Q2 2026 statement of operations with QoQ · 2026-07-29 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm

[20] HOOD 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · FY2023-FY2025 revenue disaggregation · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783879&type=10-K&dateb=20260218

[21] HOOD 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · FY2025 financial results and KPIs · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783879&type=10-K&dateb=20260218

[22] HOOD 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · FY2025 cash flows from operations · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783879&type=10-K&dateb=20260218

[23] HOOD 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · FY2025 share repurchases · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783879&type=10-K&dateb=20260218

[24] HOOD 8-K filed 2026-04-28 · Q1 2026 results headline · 2026-04-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000061/

[25] HOOD 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · H1 2026 cash flows · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm

[26] HOOD 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · June 2026 convertible notes · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm

[27] HOOD 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · Q2 2026 interest-earning assets and yields · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm

[28] HOOD 8-K filed 2026-07-29 · Q2 2026 Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC · 2026-07-29 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm

[29] HOOD 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · June 2026 reduction in force · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm

[30] HOOD 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · interest rate risk · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm

[31] HOOD 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · Q2 2026 net interest revenue components YoY · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm

[32] HOOD 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · competition · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783879&type=10-K&dateb=20260218

[33] HOOD 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · event contract litigation and regulatory risk · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm

[34] HOOD 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · Q2 2026 transaction revenue drivers · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm

[35] HOOD 8-K filed 2026-04-28 · Q1 2026 operating data · 2026-04-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000061/

[36] FX News Group 2026-09-11 · Robinhood Prediction Markets volumes drop 23% in August 2026 · 2026-09-11 · FX News Group · https://fxnewsgroup.com/forex-news/retail-forex/robinhood-prediction-markets-volumes-drop-23-in-august-2026/

[37] HOOD 10-Q filed 2026-04-29 · CFTC actions against states on event contracts · 2026-04-29 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783879&type=10-Q&dateb=20260429

[38] HOOD Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-28 · customer health and prediction markets Q&A · 2026-04-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[39] HOOD 8-K filed 2026-04-28 · Q1 2026 Gold, ARPU and buybacks · 2026-04-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000061/

[40] The Motley Fool 2026-09-19 · Prediction: Robinhood Will Pass $500 Billion in Customer Assets in 2027 · 2026-09-19 · The Motley Fool · https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-8-2099955-20260919

[41] HOOD 8-K filed 2026-07-29 · non-GAAP definition change from Q3 2026 · 2026-07-29 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm

[42] HOOD Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · stated risks · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private