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VG

Venture Global, Inc.

Venture Global, Inc. Q4 FY2025 earnings call

March 2, 2026 · fiscal period ended 2025-12

EPS · actual vs est

/ $0.35

Revenue · actual vs est

/ $4.45B
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Summary

Generated 2026-03-02

Management highlights

• Key accomplishments in 2025: Went public in January, reached commercial operations at Coxview Pass in April, ramped up commissioning at Plaquemines, launched construction and raised financing for CP2 phase one in July. Total assets grew by ~$10 billion to $53 billion, EBITDA and income from operations nearly tripled. • Operational advantages: Modular approach, massive data capture and analysis, unrelenting focus on continuous learning and improvement lead to superior LNG production and operating and maintenance costs ~30% below industry averages. Brought most EPC functions in - house, enabling faster construction and production ramp. Prioritize safety with best - in - class safety record. Working to monetize LNG value chain and augment portfolio with midstream assets. • Project progress: Plaquemines on track for COD in Q4 2026 and phase two COD in mid - 2027. CP2 phase one construction proceeding well, roof raised on first LNG tank, six liquefaction trains delivered to site. Signed 9.25 MTPA of new 20 - year SPAs since April 2025, including a 0.5 MTPA 5 - year contract with Trafiguro and a 1.5 MTPA 20 - year SPA with Hanwha Aerospace.

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Segment performance

In 2025, Venture Global had significant growth. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 was $4.4 billion, up from $1.5 billion in the same period of 2024. Income from operations in Q4 2025 was $1.7 billion, up from $594 million in Q4 2024. Full - year 2025 revenue was $13.8 billion, up from $5 billion in 2024. Income from operations for full - year 2025 was $5.2 billion, up from $1.8 billion in 2024. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $2.0 billion in Q4 2025, up from $688 million in Q4 2024. Full - year 2025 consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $6.3 billion, up from $2.1 billion in 2024. Calcasieu Pass exported 38 cargoes in Q4 2025, and Plaquemines exported 90 cargoes in Q4 2025. For 2026, Venture Global expects to produce between 486 - 527 cargoes from both facilities, with 69% of potential 2026 cargoes contracted. At Calcasieu Pass, expected implied weighted average liquefaction fee is $1.98 per MMBTU including arbitration reserves. At Plaquemines, expected production is 341 - 371 cargoes in 2026, with 59% of potential cargoes contracted and weighted average liquefaction fee of $4.05 on contracted commissioning and SPA cargoes.

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Guidance

• 2026 consolidated EBITDA guidance range is $5.2 - $5.8 billion, assuming liquefaction fee of $5 - $6 per MMBTU for cargoes remaining to be sold. • Q1 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA expected to range from $1.15 billion to $1.25 billion, with an estimated ~$500 million impact from winter storm fern and residual margin compression in late Q4 2025. • 2026 production: Expect to export 145 - 156 cargoes, with Plaquemines expected to produce 341 - 371 cargoes and Calcasieu Pass 486 - 527 cargoes.

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Risks

• Geopolitical events can impact global energy markets, as seen with the situation in the Middle East affecting LNG supply and demand dynamics. • Seasonality and tight LNG supply and demand can cause price volatility. • Delays in LNG projects under construction can affect supply projections. • Arbitration outcomes are uncertain, such as the BP arbitration process with no hearing expected to be set in 2026, which can impact revenue and financial results.

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Q&A highlights

Q: Can you provide perspective on the current market, including Qatar disruptions and ability to transact against current prices?

A: The situation in the Middle East is concerning. The US has large available LNG volumes. Higher prices are helpful for spreads. The market is waiting to see when Qatar can resume supply. Europe has low storage levels. Asia is reliant on Qatar supply. Venture Global has its own fleet of ships to move cargoes.

Q: Walk through funding plans for construction, including CapEx for expansion and assumption of higher prices?

A: Funding plans don't rely on higher prices. Can execute with attractive returns from long - term contracts. Expect to use project - level construction loans and retained earnings for CP2 phase two and bolt - ons. No plan to use parent equity.

Q: How are incremental volumes available in PLAC and CP2 systems?

A: Design allows operation at higher capacities. Driven by massive data collection (over 500,000 data points every 10 seconds) and data science team and AI programmers incorporating data into operations and process design.

Q: Vision for Venture Global in LNG build - out?

A: Have price and speed advantage, bringing low - cost LNG. Expected to have a deterrent impact on competitors. Lower prices increase demand, and venture global can benefit from scale.

Q: Talk about coal to gas switching and demand with lower prices?

A: When energy prices go down, demand goes up. The market has more regas capacity than utilized. Replacement cost of liquefaction capacity sets floor price. At attractive LNG prices, electricity from gas is competitive, leading to increased demand.

Q: Directionality of liquefaction fee over time?

A: Held steady deliberately to provide attractive returns and execute desired contracts. Maintain levels to grab market share and generate free cash.

Q: Thinking on CP2 and Plaquemines bullpens, long - term contracted coverage and capex per MT?

A: Focus on bolt - ons at CP2 and Plaquemines, which are less expensive and faster. Expect significant discount to existing costs. Target to get to ~81 - 85 MTPA in early 2029.

Q: Thoughts on arbitrations and funding plan?

A: No hearing expected for BP arbitration in 2026. Hoping for resolution in coming quarters on remaining arbitrations after successful Repsol win.

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Key numbers

Reported versus consensus

Earnings calendar feed

MetricReportedConsensusDeltaPrior year
EPS$0.35
Revenue$4.45B

Transcript

March 2, 2026

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