United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Q4 FY2025 earnings call

• Scott Kirby emphasized the resilience of United's strategy built over a decade, noting the company is expected to be the only U.S. airline to grow EPS year-over-year in 2025 despite headwinds.
• Brett Hart highlighted the focus on customer experience, with a nearly 3-point increase in Net Promoter Score in 2025, including the best NPS month in November during a government shutdown. Investments in the United app were mentioned to enhance the customer experience.
• Toby Enqvist discussed operational achievements, including the highest seat completion factor in history, handling FAA directives and irregular operations well, and canceling less than 1% of flights during the holidays.
• Andrew Nocella talked about revenue performance, including international flying improvements, commercial focus points for 2026 such as seasonal capacity shaping, enhanced merchandising, connectivity, MileagePlus growth, and premiumization.
• Mike Leskinen reported financial results, with Q4 2025 earnings per share at $3.10 within guidance, full year 2025 EPS at $10.62, and discussed 2026 guidance including EPS range, CapEx, deleveraging, and free cash flow.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, United Airlines Holdings' top line revenues increased 4.8% to $15.4 billion, with a 6.5% increase in capacity year-over-year. Consolidated TRASM for the quarter was down 1.6%. Premium cabin revenues were up 12% year-over-year on a 7% increase in capacity, outperforming the main cabin by almost 10 points in Q4. For the full year, premium revenues increased approximately 11%, while standard and Basic Economy revenues were down approximately 5%. Cargo revenues for 2025 were $1.8 billion, up 2.1% year-over-year. Loyalty revenues for 2025 were up 9%, and remuneration from global co-brands was up 12% for the year and 14% for the quarter. All United hubs were profitable in Q4 2025 and for the full year 2025.

• For Q1 2026, expected earnings per share to be between $1 and $1.50, a ~37% improvement vs Q1 2025 midpoint.
• Full year 2026 earnings per share guidance is between $12 and $14, representing over 20% growth.
• Capital expenditures for 2026 expected to be less than $8 billion.
• Target to delever further in 2026 to net leverage below 2x and achieve investment-grade metrics.
• Free cash flow expected to be similar to 2025's $2.7 billion in 2026.

• Macro volatility and idiosyncratic challenges at Newark pressured earnings in 2025.
• Government shutdown had a $250 million pretax impact on earnings.
• Geopolitical events in the Caribbean are having a measurable negative impact on bookings.
• Labor negotiations with 4 unions ongoing.
• Uncertainties in the credit card ecosystem, including potential impacts on United's co-brand program.

Q: Just on the corporate travel comments, you've noted a lot of strength there in January so far and I actually think that's your much -- most difficult comp of the quarter. So if you could just talk about how things change throughout 1Q.

A: Andrew Nocella said 2026 has gotten off to a strong start, especially in business volumes, with current business revenue up high single digits vs early 2025, and potential for stronger growth in February and March.

Q: So Scott, maybe I'd like to get your thoughts on how you're thinking about some of the changes that are being discussed around the credit card ecosystem and what that might mean for United as we look forward the next couple of years.

A: Andrew Nocella stated United's portfolio would be impacted less than most, as MileagePlus co-brand holders skew to higher FICA bands, lower revolve rates, and low loss rates; United is in contact with Chase and focused on providing great benefits.

Q: The unit cost has been stellar across 2025 quarters even in light of the investments you guys are making around the product, the experience. And you're debunking that sort of view that there's a variable cost relationship here. So maybe can you dissect what you guys are doing right, what the opportunities are for efficiencies going forward and how that plays into 2026 growth?

A: Michael Leskinen mentioned strong operation as a foundation, investment in an industry-leading app driving automation, overhauled global procurement identifying $150 million in run rate savings, and using technology for more productive tech ops; Scott Kirby added United's culture and technology investments drive core efficiency and more opportunities to come.

Q: So it's pretty clear that your full year guide is quite conservative. I think you guys may have hinted at that in your comments as well. Just trying to get a sense of kind of is this as conservative as it usually is? Or do you see reasons to make it kind of even more conservative for '26?

A: Andrew Nocella said the forecast was done more than a few weeks ago, focusing on refining in Q1, and the year has gotten off to a great start with international entities looking good; Michael Leskinen added 2025 proved United can execute through volatility and they guide to deliver on financial commitments.