TransUnion Q4 FY2025 earnings call

Management Statement and Operational Highlights

• 2025 Performance: Strong revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted diluted EPS growth. Exceeded revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted diluted EPS in Q4 2025. Repurchased ~$150M of shares in Q4, totaling $300M for 2025, and raised quarterly dividend by 9%.
• Solutions Growth: Launched over 30 major enhancements/new products in 2025. Credit, Marketing, Fraud, and Consumer solutions showed growth. The OneTru platform migration continued, with over 100 U.S. credit customers migrated by year-end 2025.
• AI Emphasis: TransUnion's data assets are protected by being broadly sourced, proprietary, highly regulated, and enhanced by network services. AI is expected to drive growth in product predictiveness and value capture within customer workflows.

Segment Performance

• U.S. Markets: Revenue grew 16% organically. Financial Services grew 19% (11% excluding mortgage). Emerging Verticals accelerated to 16% growth (up from 7% in Q3 2025). Marketing and fraud solutions grew 15% and 14% respectively. Credit Solutions grew 13%, Marketing solutions saw 7% organic growth, Fraud solutions grew 8%, and Consumer solutions grew 6% (excluding 2024 breach win).
• International: Grew 2% organically. Canada and U.K. grew double digits. India declined 4% in Q4 2025, with expectations of mid-single-digit growth in 2026. Latin America and Asia Pacific faced declines, while Africa grew 3%.

Guidance

• 2026 Outlook: Expect 8%-9% organic constant currency revenue growth, 7%-8% adjusted EBITDA growth, and 8%-10% adjusted diluted EPS growth. Initial guidance is prudently conservative. Q1 2026 revenue is guided to be between $1.195 billion and $1.205 billion, with a 1% FX benefit to adjusted EBITDA.
• Acquisition: Anticipate acquisition of Trans Union de Mexico to close in H1 2026, funded by cash on hand and debt, with an expected purchase price of ~USD 660 million.

Risks

• International Market Risks: Moderating economic conditions and credit volume fluctuations in emerging markets. India faced a reset year for unsecured lending, with volumes expected to slowly improve in 2026.
• AI Risks: Commoditization concerns, but TransUnion's data assets and regulated nature create barriers to entry for competitors.

Question and Answer

• Q: Jeff Meuler (Baird) on U.S. emerging verticals guidance A: Chris Cartwright and Todd Cello discussed the prudently conservative guide, historical outperformance, and growth potential of U.S. emerging verticals, noting they expect to outperform the guide over the year.
• Q: Toni Kaplan (Morgan Stanley) on AI differentiation A: Christopher Cartwright explained TransUnion's proprietary, regulated data assets, extensive identity integrations, and network effects as key differentiators in AI-driven solutions.
• Q: Andrew Steinerman (JPMorgan) on U.S. mortgage revenue guidance A: Todd Cello stated guidance assumes no shift to FICO direct program or VantageScore adoption, with upside potential if these occur.
• Q: Faiza Alwy (Deutsche Bank) on consumer lending trends A: Christopher Cartwright and Todd Cello highlighted stable macro conditions, loan growth, and past strong performance in consumer lending.
• Q: Andrew Nicholas (William Blair) on margin trajectory A: Todd Cello explained Q1 seasonality, growth stability, and margin expansion expected in H2 2026 due to lap of onetime investments and reset incentive accruals.
• Q: Manav Patnaik (Barclays) on AI impact on selling model A: Christopher Cartwright noted TransUnion's recurring transactional business model, with AI driving productivity gains and evolving go-to-market to focus on consultative selling.
• Q: Ashish Sabadra (RBC Capital Markets) on international markets A: Christopher Cartwright discussed strong performance in Canada and U.K., challenges in India, and long-term growth potential in emerging markets.
• Q: Jason Haas (Wells Fargo) on annual guidance framework A: Christopher Cartwright and Todd Cello emphasized organic growth, cash flow conversion, and operational efficiencies driving long-term profitability and EPS growth.
• Q: Kelsey Zhu (Autonomous) on mortgage guidance and competition A: Christopher Cartwright addressed trigger impact, competitive pricing, and benefits of the OneTru platform in mortgage revenue growth.