TC Energy Corporation Q1 FY2025 earnings call

• Safety and Performance: Safety incident rates continue to trend at five-year lows, and the resilient business model has delivered strong results despite market volatility. - Project Updates: The Southeast Gateway project is complete and awaiting CNE approval; the $900M Northwoods project to expand the ANR pipeline system was sanctioned, entering service in 2029; the Bruce Power unit five MCR was sanctioned, extending unit five's life by over 35 years. - Financial and Capital: Reaffirming 2025-2027 EBITDA outlook; updated funding plan requires ~$31B over the next three years, largely funded by internal cash flow; targeting ~$1.3B in capital reductions in 2026 and 2027.

Pipeline Business Units: In the first quarter, TC Energy saw strong demand with a 6% increase in throughput and set 13 all-time delivery records since early 2024. Power and Energy Solutions: Bruce achieved 87% availability in Q1, with an expected full-year 2025 availability in the low 90% range; the MCR execution on Bruce has been outstanding. Mexico Business: Remained largely in line with Q1 2024, benefiting from a stronger US dollar exchange rate. Alberta: Delivered exceptional performance with 98% availability, though lower Alberta power prices partially offset EBITDA. Natural Gas Storage: Contributions were lower compared to the exceptional quarter in early 2024.

• Reaffirming 2025 comparable EBITDA outlook of 10.7B-10.9B (7%-9% increase over 2024) and 2027 target of 11.7B-11.9B (5%-7% three-year growth). - Sensitivity on USD/CAD exchange rate: Potential ~$200M incremental EBITDA if average rate is 1.40.

• Regulatory uncertainties in Canada and Mexico affecting infrastructure development approvals. - Volatility in commodity prices and foreign exchange rates impacting financial results. - Permitting challenges in the US and Canada delaying project timelines and increasing costs.

Q: Given strong origination pipeline, how thinking about capex and potentially going to high end of 6-7B annual range?

A: Focus on human capital and project execution; not expecting to go above $6B in 2025, but will consider later projects if they deliver attractive returns.

Q: On Southeast Gateway, clarifying payment mechanics and CNE approval?

A: Waiting on CNE approval by end of May; once approved, will roll into normal invoicing cycle, with total adjustment mechanism preserving NPV of payments.

Q: Thoughts on Alberta outlook and data centers?

A: In Canada, working with producers/developers; in US, focusing on front-of-the-meter; Alberta has ~12GW data center queue, leveraging gas/transmission expertise.

Q: Increased line of sight to project announcements?

A: Focus on power generation, data center demand, coal-to-gas conversions; ~25GW new opportunities, ~6 Bcf per day in various stages.

Q: Commitment to 6-7B net cap ex and Mexico divestiture?

A: Patient on Mexico divestiture, focused on project execution and funding growth; net cap ex guidance remains, with funding largely from internal cash flow and capital markets.

Q: Permitting reform impact on Canadian business?

A: Broader impact on basin productivity; need for policy stability and certainty to attract LNG capital.

Q: Upside to 2027 EBITDA guidance from new projects?

A: Execution success continuing, but early in year; confident in trend, but need to show proof before reflecting changes in guidance.

Q: Mexico insulation from Pemex?

A: Contracts 100% with CFE, an investment-grade national utility; not impacted by Pemex actions.

Q: Data center strategy and partnering?

A: Bias towards partnerships; prefer long-term contracts with 5-7x build multiples; focus on front-of-the-meter in US.

Q: Volatility impact and risk-adjusted returns?

A: Discretionary capital flows to US for highest risk-adjusted returns; regulatory uncertainties in Canada and Mexico affect infrastructure development.