Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. Q3 FY2025 earnings call

• Turkcell delivered 11% revenue growth to TRY 60 billion, driven by core telecom business. Group EBITDA increased 11% to TRY 26 billion with 43.9% margin. Net income from continuing operations up 31.8% to TRY 5.4 billion. - Added 569,000 net postpaid subscribers despite intense competition. Mobile ARPU rose 12%, residential fiber ARPU up 17.3% y-o-y. - Strategic areas performed strongly: Data center/cloud revenues up 51%, solar energy capacity at 37.5 MW. Secured 160 MHz 5G spectrum, 5G to launch in April 2026.

Mobile: Achieved 11% revenue growth, reaching TRY 60 billion. Added 569,000 net postpaid subscribers, mobile ARPU rose 12%. Fixed Broadband: Net add of 33,000 fiber customers, residential fiber ARPU grew 17.3% year-on-year. Digital Business Services: Delivered 97% revenue growth, reaching TRY 4.9 billion, with data center and cloud revenues up 51%. Techfin: Representing 6% of consolidated revenues, achieved 20% year-on-year growth in Q3, with Paycell revenues up 42% and Financell loan portfolio at TRY 7.5 billion.

• Revised revenue growth expectation to around 10%. - Raised EBITDA margin target to 42%-43% range. - Revised operational CapEx to sales target to around 23%. - Upgraded data center and cloud revenues growth guidance to around 43%.

• Geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds. - Intense competition. - FX risk management, with net FX position to be monitored closely post-5G license payments.

Q: My first question is on your CapEx and dividend outlook, especially given the recent 5G auction win. I wonder -- for this year, you have given the guidance for CapEx, so that's fine. But I was wondering whether next year, we should expect a significant jump in the CapEx to sales intensity and whether this spectrum payment is going to affect the dividend payments at all? And then the second question is on your pricing action during the quarter? Did you increase any prices? And how was the competitive response to that? Are you comfortable around the pricing environment? And then the final one, actually on your final comment about the net short FX position, you said the definition will not be applicable going forward. So can you please explain what do you mean by that? And how should we think about the FX losses going forward?

A: Thank you very much, Maddy, for the questions. First question and third question will be responded by me. First of all, -- for the next year, CapEx intensity, we are not expecting higher jumps. As you know, starting of this year, we declared 24% CapEx sales ratio for this year. Now we revised it to 23%. For the next year period, we do not -- we will not be in a position exceeding the 24% around the CapEx intensity levels will be around this 24%. We will see the budget figures that will come from the business lines. The other one, as you know, our dividend policy is distributing our 50% net income of the year. We are proposing to the general assembly and general assembly decided. As you know, we have -- as [indiscernible] said, we are a very dividend-friendly company. And if you chase our company, we will be -- we have been distributing dividends for many years period. Therefore, for the 2026, our AGM has not been decided about this issue, but our dividend policy is still distributing the 50% of the net income. For the third question, as you know, we are declaring our FX position as minus -- plus USD 200 million. And when we look at the 5G tender, the results and officially, the tender results will be ratified by the governmental bodies approximately in January 2026. Therefore, the FX position -- net FX position or this liability will be in our balance sheet starting from 2026. Therefore, we will look at the position at that time. But as Ali mentioned, the 5G tender price will be paid within 3 installments. In the first installment will be in January 2026. Therefore, it means that 1/3 of the tender price plus 20% VAT amount, which corresponds 44% or 45% of the total amount will be paid in January 2026. Therefore, we will look at the -- our FX position in January 2026, and we will decide how we will manage this FX position starting from 2026. As you know, the decision will be taken under the scope of the macroeconomical conditions, hedging costs and Turkish internal macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, we will see it in January 2026. I will hand over the mic for the second question to Mr. Ali. Regarding the price adjust, I will divide this question into two different parts, mobile side and the fixed side. For the -- as the leading mobile operator and the leader and the biggest operator, mobile operator in Turkiye, we have adjusted our prices in almost every quarter between 2021 and 2024 to reflect the inflationary environment. Considering the slowing pace of inflation and competition conditions in the market, we updated our prices in January and July into 2024. Following 14% price increases implemented in January 2025, we carried out further price adjustments on our micro segmented packages such as youth and regional offers in June and August. On top of price adjustments, thanks to our successful upsell performance, we registered above inflation mobile ARPU growth of 12%. With respect to fixed broadband market, following the competition, we increased prices in December 2023, August 2024, March and October 2025. We are driving ARPU growth by increasing the share of customers within a 12-month commitment, boosting transition to high-speed packages and also widening the price gap between our TV+ bundled offers and data-only packages. This successful efforts and initiatives enables us to outperform inflation and achieve at the fixed market -- fixed broadband market, 17% real growth performance in our residential fiber ARPU. As Turkcell, we continue to focus on value as the main differentiation point from the competition. Hence, rather than competing on price, we focus on creating additional value for our customers. And we will continue to closely monitor market conditions and the competition in the upcoming quarters as well.

Q: Congrats on the results. I have just a couple of questions. So my first one is on your 2026 outlook. Do you think that the revenue growth that you've delivered in 2025 or planning to deliver is sustainable going forward given the 5G regime coming? And also -- and also on your profitability, do you think like current margin -- EBITDA margin levels are sustainable for next years? And second question is also on your -- do you have any long-term target for your net leverage? Or maybe where do you see the net leverage ratio next year and going forward after the 5G payments are done?

A: I can start with the first one. Let me talk a little bit about the current year, the great year and a great quarter. So we had another solid operational and financial results this quarter and which was actually beyond our initial plans. We continue to expand our subscriber base in both mobile and fixed segments, while delivering a real ARPU growth in each quarter of 2025 through our dynamic tariff and pricing management, higher postpaid share, also successful upselling actions and rising demand for high-speed connection also supported our ARPU performance. So consequently, in the first 9 months, our consolidated revenue grew by 12% year-over-year. And also techfin, if you talk about the techfin in the first 9 months, delivered a 25% year-over-year growth, making a very meaningful contribution to our top line. Also, our strategic investments, data center and cloud services also achieved robust revenue growth of 51% compared to the same period last year and significantly exceeding our previous full year 2025 guidance. EBITDA grew by 15%, leading to a 43.7% EBITDA margins. Building on our strong 9-month performance, we have revised our full year both revenue growth and as well as the EBITDA margin expectation and guidance. So to remain prudent while revising our guidance, we also considered the reduced magnitude of price adjustments compared to last year. And we are expecting a very competitive environment in the following years on 2026 expectation as we are in the planning process. It is too early to comment. However, our goal is to maintain our micro segment management strategy, along with our AI-driven technologies, along with our revenue growth initiatives and continue growing above the inflation rate. For the second question, as I mentioned in my presentation, at the end of this year, we will be paying the second installment of our dividend payment, and we have some additional repayment of debt for 2025. And in January, as I mentioned, we will be paying the 44% of the total tender price for the 5G side. Therefore, our expectation is this leverage ratio would be around 0.7 or 8x. And as I mentioned in my presentation, again, our aim is to keep this level lower than the 1x.

Q: Congratulations for the good results. My question is rather some technical issues in the income statement. We see monetary loss in third quarter versus like the monetary gain in the previous quarters. Could you just tell us more about the changes that lead to monetary losses in this quarter because it offsets a portion of the higher-than-expected operating profit when we go to the bottom line? And the other question is again about the TOGG participation side, we see lower losses unlike the previous 2 quarters. Do you think it's going to be the permanent? Should we expect lower the losses contribution from the TOGG, your subsidiary side? That's my second question. And again, could you just give any direction about 2026 from your side? And again, I would like to ask what kind of value-added -- the things that could come into surface in 2026 as now the 5G is done, please, in terms of licensing. What are the opportunities rather than the organic growth of the company? What could be changing in 2026 from your perspective?

A: Cemal, thank you very much for your technical questions. First question regarding the first question, yes, you're right. Our monetary gain declined by TRY 2.4 billion compared to Q3 of 2024. There are certain reasons. One of them is the slowdown in inflation rates. As you know, last year, inflation was in the same period around 8.9%. Now currently, it's declined to 7.5%. Therefore, this is the first reason for the lower monetary gain. The second one and the most important one, as you know, we sold our Ukraine business in 2024. It means that you are taking a significant portion from your balance sheet, especially generating inflationary income in your balance sheet. Therefore, due to this effect, Ukraine subsidiary sale led to a negative composition against nonmonetary assets. And furthermore, the capital reduction executed in our Netherlands company subsidiary in Q4 in 2024 indirectly led to a monetary loss due to indexation in Q3 2025. Therefore, this is the reasons of this one starting... Normally, from Q3 -- Q2 to Q3, you're asking in 2025. Am I right? Yes, yes, yes. As far as I remember, we do not have a significant change regarding the year-over-year side. Yes, the Ukraine business is very important for this one. But Q2, Q3, we do not have a significant change in the inflationary side. But as you know, this -- some of the -- how can I say, in the CapEx side, there are some CapEx amounts are eliminated, as you know, for the 5G side and the 4G side. Therefore, this might affect the inflationary accounting side. But in Q2 and Q3, I do not remember the significant result. But starting from Q2 or Q3, we have started to generate inflationary loss for this year. But for -- starting from 2026, our 5G license amounts and the additional CapEx amounts will be included in our balance sheet, and we will be starting to see significant amount of monetary gain in our balance sheet starting from 2026. But for this year, as I mentioned, the main loss item is coming from the Ukraine sale asset and the inflation rates. The second question is regarding the TOGG. As we mentioned in our previous calls, there are some problems, especially in the market -- electric vehicle market in 2025. And starting from the Q2, TOGG started to take the necessary actions for the cost optimization. And as you might remember, there are certain changes in the special consumption tax base in third quarter. And this change led to an increase in vehicle prices, which was also supported by the launch of the new model. Therefore, TOGG recorded a moderate improvement in its performance during this quarter. Most probably this improvement will continue in Q4. Therefore, starting from -- we hope that Q3 2025 would be a significant milestone for the TOGG side. In the coming periods, we are expecting more performance from the TOGG side. But as you know, this is a production investment and there are heavy EBITDA -- amortization expenses of the company. But we are -- we can observe the positive impacts of the precautions that are taken by the TOGG company for this quarter. We hope that this performance will continue in Q4 because you know the new model is also in the markets right now. And there are some extra models are presented to the market, especially 4x for electric vehicles. There are important demand for these cars. Therefore, we will see the positive impact of these actions in the Q4 also. Regarding the 5G, Cemal, thank you very much for the great question. Yes, 5G era is starting. So starting from April 1, 2026, we are going to launch 5G all over the Turkiye, and it's going to create new value-added services and opportunities. Especially with 5G, a new era of flexible and personalized tariff is the beginning. The age of one-size-fits-all plans is coming to an end. And today, for example, Turkcell serves more than 39 million mobile subscribers, which means 39 million unique tariff possibilities. In this environment, our goal is to maintain the highest level of customer satisfaction by offering plans tailored to each individual's need. We also aim to accelerate 5G adoption because 5G is going to bring high speeds, lower latency, but we need to -- our customers to have 5G phones. So we also aim to accelerate 5G adoption by supporting device financing and establishing new partnerships with smartphone manufacturers. Following our recent collaboration with Samsung, for example, we have already bought 100,000 5G-enabled devices. We plan to -- which are built in Turkiye, domestically produced A26 phones, Samsung phones. We plan to form similar partnership to further increase the number of 5G-ready phones in the market. Through these initiatives, we will make the next-generation devices more accessible as well as drive broader 5G usage across our customer base. So in order to give you a brief information about what is the difference between 4G and 5G, 4G technology was designed primarily for people, but 5G opens the door to a world where machines communicate with each other, enabling smart cities, connected factories, smart factories, industrial automation. And as a new value-added services over the next 5 years, we anticipated that the autonomous driving and connected car sectors will gain momentum in Turkiye. During this period, data consumptions and speed requirements are expected to rise significantly. And additionally, similar increases in data demand, speed requirements will emerge across government services as well as logistics, supply chain, smart manufacturing, the energy sector and smart city ecosystem, driven by the adoption of hybrid and private 5G networks. So stay true that 5G will unlock new revenue opportunities across not only the automotive industry, but also the government services and logistics and energy and smart cities. So as new technologies mature, Turkcell is positioned to be a leading operator, enabling Turkiye digital transformation through 5G and delivering the best and the greatest 5G technology to our customers. So how we are going to do it is the tender is a solid proof for it. So by securing large-scale 5G frequency resources, we gain a significant competitive advantage in both capacity and the quality because we got the highest frequency spectrum. The wider the spectrum will allow us to deliver superior customer experience in densely populated areas, ensuring high speed, low latency connectivity even under heavy network loads. It also enables us to serve a much larger number of people. So we are going to bring this fixed wireless access customers. We call it Superbox 5G, fiber-like performance. Even if you don't have a fiber, we are going to provide you 1,000 megabit per second speeds with our Superbox 5G-enabled boxes. So even if you don't have your fiber in your house in anywhere you go, we are going to provide the best speeds within a wireless domain, and it's going to give you a huge flexibility and then it's going to come up with a huge efficiency.