Serve Robotics Inc. Q4 FY2025 earnings call

Bullet points:

• In 2025, deployed 2,000 autonomous robots across 20 distinct cities in six major metropolitan areas, launched new cities, added DoorDash and Uber Eats, completed four strategic acquisitions, met or exceeded revenue guidance every quarter, maintained 99.8% delivery completion rate and safety record.
• Physical AI is the next frontier, CERV has built a flywheel with steps: amassing data from multiple domains (sidewalks, hospitals, etc.), developing models with acquisitions like Vayu Robotics and Phantom Auto, deploying models with fleet scale and partnerships, and monetization through delivery fees, branding/advertising, data and platform revenues, healthcare revenue from Diligent Robotics.
• 2025 was the year of proving the technology, 2026 is the year to compound the business model, with scale changing economics, partners, learning, and accelerating the flywheel.

In Q4, total revenue was $0.9 million, nearly 400% year-over-year growth. Full year 2025 revenue was $2.7 million, exceeding the $2.5 million guidance. Fleet revenue in Q4 was $0.7 million, branding saw 50% year-over-year increase in Q4, software revenues over $200,000 in Q4 with recurring software base ~70% of software revenues. Underlying recurring revenues excluding one-time agreements grew over 3x during 2025. Q4 margins affected by large deployment of nearly 1,000 new robots but trends show continued margin improvement ahead. Delivery volume grew 53% QoQ in Q4 and ~270% full year vs 2024. Merchant base expanded to over 4,500 restaurants and retail partners, reaching over 1.7 million households in metro areas covering over 3.75 million people.

Bullet points:

• Raised 2026 revenue guidance to approximately $26 million, driven by acquisition of Diligent Robotics and new market opportunity contributing ~$7 million via recurring healthcare contracts.
• Expect 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $25 million for robot production and deployment.
• Non-GAAP operating expenses in 2026 expected to be ~$160 to $170 million.
• Continue disciplined geographic expansion, pursue selective international expansion into cities like Toronto, Sydney, etc., and expect sustained accelerating growth beyond 2026 towards $60 to $80 million annualized revenue run rate.

Q: CERV deployed 2,000 robots last year. What's the goal from a unit deployment perspective in 2026 and beyond?

A: Over next few years expect to deploy thousands more. In short term, let recent growth settle, gather data/learnings from 20X fleet growth. Already working on supply chain for next batch of robots to expand to new major markets. CapEx guidance for 2026 ~$25 million, significant majority for CERV fleet expansion and also investing in MOXIE robots. Q1 2026 looking to optimize performance of full fleet, retain control over CapEx timing and OpEx deployment costs as fleet grows.

Q: What percentage of the 2,000 deployed robots should be daily active by the end of first quarter?

A: From manufacturing/deploying robots to full utilization, involves creating depots, addressing local municipality requirements, activating neighborhoods, onboarding merchants. Expect by middle of year to have existing robots on fully active daily basis, focus on operational optimization, timing everything considering manufacturing lead times.

Q: How are the integration efforts going, and what are your plans for growing the healthcare business?

A: Acquisition of Diligent Robotics strengthens flywheel, enriches data, creates balanced revenue base, opens new markets. Already starting to integrate platform capabilities with Moxie robots, creating repeatable playbook for expanding into new verticals. Healthcare business has $7 million revenue in 2026 from recurring contracts, will continue to invest in engineering headcount and infrastructure for growth.

Q: Is optimization of the fleet a linear process, or are there step functions? And if so, what would cause that?

A: Steps involved in going from deployment to full utilization, many factors affect utilization. More mature markets further along optimization curve. 2026 is about fleet optimization and efficiency on sidewalk and hospitals.

Q: Can you speak more about your plans to expand internationally? What's the timeframe for those city launches?

A: Built foundation for expansion, in active discussions with city officials/partners in multiple international markets. Disciplined and intentional, weighing U.S. vs abroad growth. Ultimate growth opportunity internationally seen as 2027, 2026 to lay groundwork, robots continue to collect data in more cities, making flywheel more durable for future rapid growth and expansion.