Ranpak Holdings Corp. Q4 FY2025 earnings call

• Finished 2025 on a positive note with all geographies experiencing volume growth and automation having momentum, positioning well for 2026.
• Strengthened economic relationships with two of the world's largest e-commerce and retail leaders and elevated position through a major collaboration with Medline Industries in the healthcare sector.
• The world is evolving rapidly with advances in AI and robotics, and RAMPAC is well positioned to lead in the new landscape defined by larger warehouses, logistics networks, and environmental responsibility.
• 2025 was a more difficult year than anticipated, but the company achieved the lower end of the adjusted EBITDA guide, with sequencing focused on driving scale, unlocking operational efficiencies, and enhancing margin as revenue grows.

North America business was the engine driving top line performance, with Q4 sales up 5.8% and full-year net revenue growth of 14%. This was driven by over 20% growth in void fill and 91.7% growth in automation (excluding warrants). In Europe and Asia Pacific, revenue decreased 1.5% year over year on a constant currency basis due to less favorable mix and increased rebate activity, though automation grew 30% in the quarter. Automation had nearly 40% growth on a constant currency basis in the quarter, entered 2026 with a strong order book, and achieved over $40 million in revenue for 2025, representing almost 35% growth.

• For 2026, on a constant currency basis, net revenue growth is expected to be 5% to 12.7% and adjusted EBITDA growth is 5.4% to 19.9%. Assuming a spot rate of 1.16 euros to the US dollar, net revenue range is 415 to 445 million and adjusted EBITDA range is 83.5 to 95 million.
• Automation revenue is anticipated to grow 30 to 50%, potentially reaching more than 60 million and turning positive from an adjusted EBITDA perspective.
• PPS volume is expected to have low to high single-digit growth, with North America mid to high single-digit, EMEA low to mid single-digit, and APAC driven by localization and local sourcing of paper.

• Uncertainty from the Middle East events which could impact sentiment in Europe and energy pricing.
• Volatility in Europe energy market, which is an unknown factor currently.
• Tariff environment and economic uncertainties in Europe affecting customer confidence and operating environment.

Q: Can you give us a sense as to the PPS volume outlook that's embedded in your guidance for 2026? And if you could also do that by region?

A: Omar mentioned North America has potential for mid to high single digit to double digit growth, Europe is a bit harder with unknowns due to Middle East events, and APAC is driven by localization and local sourcing. Bill added North America mid to high single digit, EMEA low to mid single digit, and automation 3 - 5 points growth.

Q: The 30 to 50% growth that you're targeting for automation in 2026, just curious as to your backlog specific to that?

A: Entered 2026 with best backlog ever, continue to see tremendous activity, strategic relationships driving it, confident in surpassing lower end of 30% growth.

Q: On Q4 results specifically on revenue, was the revenue missed mostly due to some automation stuff shifting to the right?

A: Yes, some automation projects slipped from Q4, also industrial activity not at desired level, but e-commerce strong in December.

Q: Your comments on Q1 specifically, how to interpret those?

A: Normally second half stronger, Q2 stronger than Q1, Q4 stronger than Q3, but have tough comp due to paper disruptions, recent Middle East events caused conservatism in guidance.

Q: Specific on what's going on in the Middle East, in terms of the guide, how were you taking into account natural gas prices and potential headwind from input costs?

A: Have exposure on recycled paper, some partners and mills not dependent on Dutch NatGas, some hedged, but demand impact from Middle East events is more of concern.

Q: How do you think about unlocking shareholder value?

A: Through large relationships with two customers driving growth, switch from plastic to paper, localization in APAC, new initiatives, and automation growth.