National Fuel Gas Company Q3 FY2025 earnings call

• Dave Bauer highlighted Seneca's Eastern development area exceeding expectations, production growth, capital efficiency, and regulated business growth including pipeline expansion projects like Shippingport Lateral and Tioga Pathway.
• Tim Silverstein discussed fiscal 2025 earnings guidance range ($6.80-$6.95 per share), fiscal 2026 earnings projections at different NYMEX prices, hedge book details, and nonregulated/regulated business assumptions.
• Justin Loweth provided details on Seneca's production, capital, and expense guidance for fiscal 2025 and 2026, natural gas market outlook, and updates on NFG Midstream's gathering operations and project advancements.

Seneca Resources: Q3 production up 16% y-o-y; full-year 2025 production expected up ~8% vs 2024. Fiscal 2026 production guidance 440-455 Bcf (6% increase at midpoint) with 4% less capital spend. Cash operating costs improving. Regulated side: Utility expects 5-6% customer margin increase next year due to rate settlement and modernization; Pipeline and Storage segment revenues flat in 2026, evaluating rate case for Supply Corporation, with certain cost factors driving O&M changes.

• Fiscal 2025 earnings guidance narrowed to $6.80 to $6.95 per share.
• Fiscal 2026 earnings per share ranges at various NYMEX gas prices; using $4 price, earnings expected $8 to $8.50 per share (20% increase from 2025); at $5 NYMEX, $10 per share.
• Nonregulated: 6% production increase at midpoint, slight decrease in gathering revenues next year, maintaining low cash unit costs.
• Regulated: Utility customer margin expected 5-6% increase, Pipeline and Storage segment revenues flat, evaluating rate cases.

• Actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements.
• Potential impacts of service cost fluctuations, including steel tariffs and overall service cost trends.
• Permitting challenges for large-scale energy projects which could delay significant infrastructure developments.

Q: Can you talk about the drivers of pausing the buyback program?

A: Driven by capital allocation priorities, wanting to keep balance sheet flexibility for growth opportunities.

Q: Quantify the impact of cash taxes in 2026 and beyond?

A: Near term cash tax rate in low to mid-single digits, moving to higher rates in future years absent tax law changes.

Q: Talk about the cadence of spending for the Tioga Pathway project in fiscal '26?

A: Kick off construction in spring with prep work, bulk spending in summer on contractors and line installation.

Q: Thoughts on service cost deflation and input costs?

A: Steel price inflation not a major issue, overall service costs seen as having more tailwinds than headwinds.

Q: Elaborate on NESE and Constitution pipelines and their impact?

A: NESE could benefit firm transportation and create incremental demand; Constitution has positive momentum and could impact in-basin pricing and firm sales.