Cheniere Energy, Inc. Q3 FY2025 earnings call

Key Successes - Third quarter had many key successes across the business, including significant progress on Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion, development plans for Sabine Pass expansion, and achieving operational milestones. - Substantial completion of the third Train of Corpus Christi Stage 3 was achieved ahead of forecasted timeline, and Train 4 is expected to have first LNG soon and substantial completion by end of year. - Produced and exported 163 cargoes of LNG in third quarter, including 3,000th cargo at Sabine Pass. - Capital allocation plan deployed approximately $1.8 billion in third quarter, including $600 million in growth CapEx, $110 million in dividends, $50 million in long-term debt repayment, and over $1 billion in share repurchase. ### LNG Market - Global LNG demand in third quarter 2025 underpinned by European imports with Asia soft; JKM and TTF benchmarks range-bound. - Europe's LNG imports increased year-on-year, pipe gas volumes from Russia decreased. Asia's LNG imports subdued. - Expect global LNG market to add significant liquefaction capacity from 2025-2030, with U.S. LNG important for global balances, leading to more stable pricing and catalyzing price-sensitive demand. ### Financial Results - Third quarter net income ~$1.05 billion, consolidated adjusted EBITDA ~$1.6 billion, distributable cash flow ~$1.6 billion. - Year-to-date, generated ~$4.9 billion consolidated adjusted EBITDA and ~$3.8 billion distributable cash flow. - Repurchased 4.4 million shares for ~$1 billion in third quarter, with share repurchase plan active and opportunistic. - Declared dividend of $0.555 per common share, up over 10% from prior quarter.

In the third quarter of 2025, Cheniere generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion, distributable cash flow of approximately $1.6 billion, and net income of approximately $1 billion. For the full year 2025, the consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance range is reconfirmed at $6.6 billion to $7 billion, and the distributable cash flow guidance range is raised from $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion to $4.8 billion to $5.2 billion. During the third quarter, 163 cargoes of LNG were produced and exported, including the 3,000th LNG cargo produced at Sabine Pass. The revenue contribution is mainly from LNG production and export operations, with high visibility and certainty from the highly contracted platform.

2025 Guidance - Reconfirm full year 2025 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance range at $6.6 billion to $7 billion. - Raise distributable cash flow guidance range from $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion to $4.8 billion to $5.2 billion, driven by IRS rule change on corporate alternative minimum tax. ### 2026 Outlook - Expect to produce approximately 51 million to 53 million tonnes of LNG in 2026, up ~5 million tonnes year-over-year, inclusive of Stage 3 volumes from Trains 4-7 and planned maintenance. - Forecast 50 million to 52 million tonnes of volume after commissioning and in-transit timing, with ~3 million to 5 million tonnes of spot volume available, and 1.5 million to 3.5 million tonnes of unsold open capacity expected.

• Geopolitical unrest, rising costs, insufficient supply chains, tariffs, and government shutdown pose challenges to operations. - Market price volatility, including episodic price disruptions and volatility in the LNG market due to delicate balance with minimal spare LNG capacity. - Uncertainties in project construction, commissioning, and ramp-up timings, as well as production variability due to factors like feed gas composition and weather.

Q: Jeremy Tonet asked about the buyback pace.

A: Zach Davis said it's due to liquidity, valuation, and performance, with more of the same expected, on track to need an upsize next year.

Q: Jeremy Tonet asked about LNG market inflection point and Asian demand.

A: Anatol Feygin said it's a transition year, with gas demand drivers in Asia including power generation, industrial, and residential commercial demand, but pace may not match supply timing.

Q: Theresa Chen asked about Asian demand and Cheniere's incremental capacity expansion.

A: Jack Fusco said Cheniere will stick to its standards of fully contracted, meeting hurdle rates, and providing energy to investment-grade counterparties. Zach Davis added staying disciplined in brownfield development.

Q: John Mackay asked about feed gas and Sabine Train 7.

A: Jack Fusco said feed gas variability is addressed by process adjustments, and Zach Davis said Sabine Train 7 FID timing depends on FERC permit expected later next year.

Q: Spiro Dounis asked about trade outlook and 2026 volumes.

A: Jack Fusco said expects more opportunities in Asia, and Zach Davis said 2026 volume range is 51-53 million tonnes with variability from commissioning and operational factors.

Q: Brandon Bingham asked about non-LNG operators entering the market.

A: Anatol Feygin said it will be a challenging dynamic with lack of discipline from some participants, and Cheniere will stick to its 95% plus contracted portfolio.

Q: Jean Ann Salisbury asked about debottlenecking and project FID.

A: Jack Fusco said debottlenecking has been ongoing and will continue, and Zach Davis said FERC permit needed for Sabine Train 7 FID.

Q: Manav Gupta asked about engineering teams quickly increasing capacity.

A: Zach Davis said credit to engineers and operating folks, with FERC filing for Sabine expansion and exploring ways to get more out of facilities.