EPS · actual vs est
Revenue · actual vs est
Summary
Generated 2026-05-11
Management highlights
Company Transformation Completed
- Completed the multi-year transition from a Bitcoin mining firm to a North American digital (HPC/AI) infrastructure company
- Redomiciled to the United States, officially rebranded as Keele Infrastructure, and closed the sale of the Paso Pei site, exiting Latin American operations
- 100% of the company's portfolio is now positioned in high-demand, capacity-constrained North American markets
Core Competitive Strategy
The company's customer-centric strategy addresses the industry's top constraint (deliverable power on accelerated timelines) via five key pillars:
- Short timelines to power: All near-term sites have secured power available starting 2027, cutting the typical 4-10 year interconnection timeline for new large loads in target markets
- Prime locations: All sites are located in primary, high-demand markets near major metro areas and existing customer infrastructure clusters
- Proven permitting with stakeholder engagement: Local, experienced permitting teams with proactive community relations have delivered full zoning approval for all three near-term sites
- Best-in-class delivery partners: Ecosystem of hyperscaler-proven partners (Turner Construction, Corrigan, Vertiv, T5) eliminates execution risk for tenants
- Future-proof designs: Architecture and engineering work advances in parallel with customer conversations to allow quick adaptation to evolving specifications, including next-generation AI hardware
Near-Term Site Progress
- Panther Creek (Pennsylvania, flagship): 350 MW of secured gross capacity; full zoning approved in February 2026; land development and environmental permits in process and on track for mid-late summer 2026; targeted for hyperscaler/neocloud tenants, with active ongoing negotiations; long-term expansion potential to 500+ MW total capacity
- Sharon (Western Pennsylvania): 110 MW of secured capacity; full zoning approved April 2026; preliminary land development approval received, environmental permits in process and on track; ready for service as early as 2027; targeted for hyperscalers, neoclouds, and large enterprise; active commercialization underway
- Moses Lake (Washington): 18 MW of secured capacity adjacent to the established Quincy corridor; zoning complete; permits in process and on track; critical modular equipment pre-purchased to enable accelerated deployment; Bitcoin mining operations are actively being decommissioned; targeted for neoclouds, enterprise, and government customers; secured option for an additional 10 MW of adjacent expansion capacity, with all due diligence complete
Strategic Priorities for 2026
The top 2026 priority is signing three leases (one at each near-term site) by the end of the year. Signed leases are the key value creation inflection point, as they convert development assets to long-term contracted cash flow, unlock low-cost non-dilutive project financing, and reduce execution risk for all stakeholders.
Segment performance
For Q1 2026, the former Paso Pei Bitcoin facility in Paraguay is classified as discontinued operations, so all results below reflect only continuing operations (the North American HPC/AI digital infrastructure development platform). Q1 2026 total revenue was $37 million, a 23% year-over-year decrease. Operating loss was $98 million, including $28 million in non-cash depreciation, compared to a $35 million operating loss (with $18 million non-cash depreciation) in Q1 2025. The year-over-year operating loss increase is primarily driven by a $41 million loss from the change in fair value of digital assets in Q1 2026, versus a $23 million loss in the prior year period. Net loss from continuing operations was $128 million, or $0.21 loss per basic and diluted share, compared to a $38 million net loss ($0.08 loss per share) in Q1 2025. This additional loss includes a $22 million charge from the extinguishment of the Macquarie Credit Facility. Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 was negative $17 million, down from positive $7 million in Q1 2025, driven by a $15 million increase in energy and infrastructure expenses and a $7 million unfavorable shift in digital asset sale gains/losses. As of May 8, 2026, total liquidity (cash + remaining Bitcoin) is approximately $533 million.
Guidance
- 2026 Top Priority: Confirm guidance to sign three leases (Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake) by the end of 2026, with revenue from the leases commencing in 2027
- Permitting Timeline: Reaffirmed the prior guidance of completing remaining land development and environmental permits for all three near-term sites in mid-late summer 2026, with no changes to the timeline despite completed zoning at all sites
- SG&A Run Rate: Guidance for full-year 2026 run-rate cash SG&A is approximately $100 million ($25 million per quarter), reflecting offsetting factors from the Bitcoin wind-down and new hires for HPC/AI development
- Bitcoin Hash Rate: Bitcoin hash rate will decline gradually from the current ~14 EH/s to ~5 EH/s by the end of 2026, aligned with construction timelines for development sites
- Capital Expenditures: Management confirmed that capital requirement estimates have not changed from initial guidance, and standard industry rule-of-thumb figures remain appropriate for modeling
- Scrubgrass (Pennsylvania expansion site): Guidance indicates detailed load study for the 750 MW proposed expansion will be completed by Q4 2026, with updates after that time
- Quebec Sherbrooke Site: An update on consolidation plans for the 96 MW permitted campus will be provided on the Q2 2026 earnings call
- Liquidity: Management reaffirmed that existing $533 million in liquidity is sufficient to reach lease execution across all three near-term sites, cover G&A through 2028, and no capital market raises are required at this stage
Risks
- Permitting timelines for development sites may shift slightly (faster or slower) from the current mid-late summer 2026 target, even as management maintains high confidence in the current plan
- Geopolitical uncertainty globally has reinforced a preference for U.S.-based AI infrastructure investment, but broader macroeconomic or geopolitical shifts could impact tenant demand or deployment plans
- Internal team bandwidth is cited as the primary near-term gating factor for growth, given the complexity of the 2 gigawatt development pipeline, even as the company actively adds team members and leverages experienced third-party partners to mitigate this risk
- Counterparty credit risk varies across tenant types: neocloud tenants generally offer higher lease pricing but higher cost of capital, while hyperscalers offer stronger credit but slightly tighter pricing, requiring balanced tradeoffs in lease negotiations
- Evolving engineering requirements for next-generation AI hardware (such as NVIDIA Vera Rubin) create ongoing design adjustments, as the technology is just entering initial production
Q&A highlights
Q: How do you evaluate tradeoffs between different tenant categories (hyperscalers, neoclouds, enterprise) when selecting a lessee, and how has demand changed in the last 90 days? / A: Management balances three core factors: counterparty credit quality, lease economics, and cost of capital, without prioritizing one category over another. Site scale largely aligns with natural tenant demand profiles, as outlined in the presentation. Demand remains as strong as it was 90 days ago, with geopolitical uncertainty actually reinforcing preference for U.S.-based AI infrastructure investment rather than reducing demand.
Q: What is the timeline for remaining permitting at Panther Creek, and is full permitting required before lease execution? / A: Permitting remains on track for the previously guided mid-late summer 2026 timeline. Lease negotiations and permitting run in parallel: full permitting is not required to begin negotiations, but management must demonstrate a credible, high-confidence path to on-time permitting to move discussions forward. Final leases are expected to be executed after permitting completion.
Q: What is the status of Bitcoin mining today, and how will it trend over 2026? / A: Current hash rate remains ~14 EH/s, and will gradually decline to ~5 EH/s by the end of 2026. Decommissioning at Moses Lake is already underway, and decommissioning at Panther Creek and Sharon will align with construction timelines to optimize remaining cash flow from mining operations.
Q: What is the biggest gating factor for Keele's growth over the next few years? / A: The primary constraint is internal team bandwidth, given the complexity of the 2 gigawatt development pipeline. The company is mitigating this by adding specialized staff, leveraging experienced third-party development partners, and simplifying the business via completed transformation activities (redomestication, exiting non-core assets) to free up internal capacity.
Q: What is the latest update on the Scrubgrass expansion site, and what are key milestones over the next 12 months? / A: Scrubgrass is a long-term crown jewel opportunity that could add 750 MW of secured capacity, more than doubling Keele's current secured portfolio. The detailed 750 MW grid load study is ongoing, with results expected in Q4 2026. Management is also working to secure energy contracts and power supply agreements, with the near-term goal of moving the 750 MW from the expansion bucket to the secured capacity bucket.
Key numbers
Reported versus consensus
Earnings calendar feed
| Metric | Reported | Consensus | Delta | Prior year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.10 | $-0.11 | +9.1% | — |
| Revenue | $37.0M | $34.6M | +7.0% | — |
Transcript
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