IHS Holding Limited Q3 FY2025 earnings call

Management Statement and Operational Highlights

• Quarterly Performance: Delivered strong results with revenue at $455 million, adjusted EBITDA at $261 million (margin 57.5%), ALFCF at $158 million. Constant currency revenue growth was almost 9%.
• Leverage and Liquidity: Consolidated net leverage ratio reduced to 3.3 times, down 0.6x year on year. Liquidity remains strong over $950 million, excluding Rwanda proceeds which will take it over $1 billion.
• Priorities: Maintain focus on reducing debt and driving organic growth; be disciplined in capital allocation; accelerate efficiency gains via technology/AI; pursue attractive organic growth opportunities; consider further disposal activity.
• Market Opportunities: Strong growth potential in Brazil (expanded partnership with TIM for up to 3,000 new sites) and Nigeria (carrier tariff hikes and naira strengthening).

Segment Performance

• Nigeria Segment: Revenue was $268 million in the quarter. Organic growth was 5% year on year. Segment adjusted EBITDA was $170 million, a 7% increase from a year ago, with a margin of 63.3% (down 230 basis points).
• Sub-Saharan African Segment: Revenue increased 13%, while segment adjusted EBITDA decreased just over 1% year on year. Revenue growth was driven by new tenants and colocations, offset by lower revenues from FX resets. Adjusted EBITDA decline was due to increased regulatory fees.
• LATAM Segment: Towers and tenants grew by 68.9% respectively versus Q3 2024. Organic growth was 11% year on year. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased by almost 22% with a margin increase of 560 basis points versus 2024, reflecting cost-saving initiatives.

Guidance

• Full-Year 2025: Revenue expected in the range of $1.72 to $1.75 billion (a $20 million uplift from previous guidance). Adjusted EBITDA expected in the range of $995 million to $1.015 billion (a $10 million uplift). ALFCF expected in the range of $400 million to $420 million (a $10 million uplift). Total CapEx remains in the range of $240 million to $270 million.
• FX Assumptions: Stronger FX assumptions support reported numbers, including a revised naira to dollar rate assumption for the full year.
• Leverage Target: Consolidated net leverage ratio target of three to four times remains unchanged, expected to be at the low end of the range by year-end 2025.

Risks

• Market and FX Risks: Uncertainties related to foreign exchange movements, market volatility, and macroeconomic conditions in key markets (e.g., Nigeria, Brazil) that could impact financial performance.
• Operational Risks: Tenant churn issues (e.g., MTN Nigeria site churn, Nine Mobile tenancy churn) and potential impacts on tower base and associated costs.

Question and Answer

Q: Richard Choe of JPMorgan asked about carrier customers in Nigeria and their CapEx plans.

A: Steve Howden responded that MTN and Airtel Nigeria have strong financials, CapEx moderated in Q4 but there's still business from lease amendments and air rollout. Longer-term plans not specified yet but will be covered at year-end.

Q: Michael Rollins of Citi asked about capital allocation and leverage.

A: Steve Howden said leverage is on track to be 3.1 times by year-end, and they'll update capital allocation at year-end, considering growth CapEx, debt reduction, and potential shareholder returns like dividends or buybacks. Also noted no outbound acquisition plans.

Q: Gustavo Campos of Jefferies asked about Rwanda sale, leverage, and site churn in Nigeria.

A: Steve Howden discussed the Rwanda sale proceeds timing and impact on leverage. Regarding site churn, MTN churn impacted revenue by ~$8 million, and they rationalize towers if no good tenant opportunities. Sam Darwish added MTN churn was part of MLA renewal.

Q: Stella Cridge of Barclays asked about cash cushion and capital structure.

A: Steve Howden said group cash balance is monitored to be $150 million to $200 million, currently higher. Capital structure aims for balance of bonds and term loans, with a mix of dollar-denominated debt and fixed/floating rates.