Hexcel Corporation Q3 FY2025 earnings call

• Hexcel's confidence in the growth outlook in aerospace and defense markets remains strong, with a focus on advanced material science for aerospace and defense. - Financial results: Generated $456 million in sales and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.37 in Q3 2025. Gross margin was 21.9% compared to 23.3% in Q3 2024. - Market performance: Commercial Aerospace was impacted by destocking, while Defense, Space and Other saw growth. - Cost reduction actions: Completed divestiture of Neumarkt, Austria plant and closure of Belgium facility; continuing to manage headcount and drive productivity. - Free cash flow: Forecasting over $1 billion of free cash flow over 2025 - 2028. - Stock repurchase: Board authorized $600 million share repurchase program and $350 million accelerated share repurchase program. - Patrick Winterlich's departure: Announced his move to Howmet, with a transition period until end of November.

Hexcel's Composite Materials segment represented 80% of total third quarter sales and generated an adjusted operating margin of 11.2% (compared to 14.5% in the prior year period). The Engineered Products segment, making up 20% of total sales, had an adjusted operating margin of 15.5% (compared to 11.5% in the prior year period). For the third quarter, Commercial Aerospace sales were $274.2 million, approximately 60% of total third quarter sales, and decreased 7.3% year-over-year. Defense, Space and Other segment represented approximately 40% of third quarter sales, totaling $182 million, an increase of 11.7% on a constant currency basis from the same period in 2024.

• Revised 2025 guidance due to lingering OEM destocking in Q4 and tariffs, narrowing sales expectation to the bottom of prior range and reducing EPS guidance. - Anticipate exit 2025 strongly positioned for growth in 2026 and beyond with sales growth driving operating leverage and margin expansion. - Board authorized $600 million share repurchase program and $350 million accelerated share repurchase program, to be funded from revolver and repaid from future cash generation.

• Tariffs remain a headwind. - Lingering OEM destocking in Q4 2025 could continue longer than expected, impacting production and margins.

Q: Congratulations, Patrick, on the move and good luck in the search, Tom. In the context of the $500 million growth that you're looking for at manufacturer production rates, can you talk about how much of that should it be or how much higher should that be if you actually had contracts that allowed for inflationary pricing to have escalated during the last decade?

A: Well, the good thing about the Airbus contract that we signed in 2008 for the A350 is that it was a long-term contract, and it gave us the confidence and foundation to make massive capital investments to industrialize for the A350. And we extended that contract in 2016 to go all the way out to 2030. Now as you know, the production rates ramp very quickly up through 2018, 2019, they peaked. We delivered 112 A350s in 2019. And our overall revenue that year was $2.355 billion and the margins were 18%. Now since that time, the pandemic hit, volume dropped quite a bit, and we also experienced a lot of inflation. Now where we are today, we're not getting volume leverage across the board. And we've absorbed a lot of that inflation on some of our long-term contracts, particularly with Airbus. When we get back to the $2.35 billion of revenue, probably sometime in the next couple of years, our margins are going to be a little bit curtailed. They'll be at about 16%. So about 200 basis points of headwind from the inflation is really what the impact is. Now when we get the full impact of the $500 million from all of the targets across the major programs, we think that will get us back to 18%. But obviously, we would like to do more than that, and that's why we're driving our productivity projects. So to summarize, the impact of the inflation that we've absorbed over the past couple of years is about 200 basis points, and we're working to offset that.

Q: Maybe just to stay on both of those topics. Tom, I think you said getting back to that 18%. I mean, so is it reasonable to think that incremental margins can be in that, I guess, implied 40% plus range to get back to that 18%? I mean, is there going to be any disruption with labor add-backs? Or do you think you have more confidence in pricing along the way with -- I think you said 10% to 15% of these contracts renew and then you probably have that bigger renewal out in 2030 with Airbus. But is that the right way to think about incrementals?

A: Yes, yes. I mean the way I would say it summarize is that as the volumes increase and as our revenue goes up, we're going to get a lot of operating leverage. And we're not going to have to make a lot of capital investment to get there. you always have to offset various things, inflation and productivity and potentially other costs like utilities or logistics. But that's what your productivity programs have to offset. But the biggest driver for Hexcel is that as production rates increase and our revenues go up, that drives an incredible amount of operating leverage, which will create the enhanced margins and the recovery back to the 16% first and then 18% as we get the full impact of all the target rate reductions across the major programs.

Q: I guess just following up on the margin question. In 2026, if Commercial Aero revenue is higher than it was in 2024, can margins also be higher?

A: They can, yes. We have work to do to offset some of the natural inflation that we see normally but that's certainly the goal.

Q: Tom, I guess, as you plan for 2026, obviously, the supply chain has been pretty lumpy. A350 increases have been set back. How do you think about possible contingencies if destocking does continue longer than you expect? So maybe it's not as operationally disruptive to Hexcel as it was this year?

A: Well, what we've been doing is lagging a little bit more in terms of the demand, waiting to see it materialize before we go ahead and hire the heads. And we'll continue to do that. We have a lot of inventory, so we can cushion any potential unexpected increase in the short term. But that's really the primary way we've been managing it and cushing it is one is set realistic expectations, lag the growth in terms of when we actually hire and use our inventory to make sure we have a proper cushion for any unexpected demand.

Q: Patrick, congrats. Tom, you referenced the LTA negotiations and historically, your LTAs have included language where some of the productivity benefits are shared between Hexcel and its customer. So as those agreements come up for renegotiation, are you making sure that you get to keep a larger share of the productivity benefits going forward?

A: Well, we always want to keep as much as we can. That's for sure. But at the same time, you've got to make sure any negotiation ends up being a win-win. And a lot of the productivity projects that we drive do require engineering resources from our customers. And so you want to make sure you can obtain those resources. So yes, the goal is always to make sure we get a fair return on the investments that we make and the value that we deliver but also recognizing that we want to make it -- we want to facilitate the fact that we need some help and engineering from our customers.

Q: And Patrick, let me extend my congratulations as well, and thanks for the help over the years. Maybe -- yes, first question, Tom, last quarter, you were pretty explicit in terms of expected delivery schedules on some major programs. It looks like the guidance maybe implies about 5-ish A350 units were pushed out of the fourth quarter. Can you just talk about if we're thinking about that appropriately? And specifically, maybe you sound very confident in the exit rate on that program this year, sort of where you expect to be exiting this year as you think about that program?

A: Yes. I think that's about right, Ken. What we're seeing is that Q4 is a little bit lighter than we thought. We only had about 5 aircraft per month full in Q3. And Airbus has gone to 7 aircraft per month now. That change has been made, but it's not necessarily flowing all the way down yet. And so as a result, the orders for Q4 were a little bit lighter than we expected. Now that said, the orders going into 2026 are stronger than we expected. And so that, again, gives us confidence in this rate ramp really taking traction. Airbus is at 7 now. They're supposed to go to 8 sometime in the middle of the year and maybe even get to 9 aircraft per month by the end of the year is the current schedule. But yes, it was a little softer in Q4, but the orders going into 2026 are actually higher than we expected. So that's very promising.

Q: John McNulty: Patrick, again, congratulations on the move. So I guess I was hoping you might be able to quantify or give us a little bit of an idea of how big do you feel like that inventory cushion that you have actually is? Is it a couple of months? Is it a couple of quarters? Yes, I guess as you're thinking about the ramp going into 2026, I'm just trying to get a better understanding of that cushion.

A: Yes. Well, we've been running pretty high on inventory the last couple of quarters, over 100 days, north of $400 million total amount. And that's down to about 90. Back in the 2018, 2019 time period, it was more like 70 days. So we've got a 90-day cushion on inventory but it should more in kind of static terms and steady state, be more like 70%. So that's the goal. So that's where we are. We do have that inventory. We've been burning it down, and you saw some evidence of that in this quarter. By burning down some inventory, we had some absorption impact, and that impacted our margins a little bit.

Q: Pete Skibitski: Congrats, Patrick. I guess maybe, Tom, you could talk more about Space and Defense, just the growth you've seen over the last 2 or 3 quarters. Does it feel like this is the start of kind of this European secular defense spending trend? Or are we not there yet? And I was wondering, should we expect a pretty big ramp on the CH-53K as well now that Lockheed got the full rate production contract?

A: Yes. Well, on Europe, I mean, honestly, we saw growth in Europe at European Defense at about 18% for the quarter. So that was very strong. And I think it is an indication that we're really seeing defense spending in Europe increase. Obviously, they had 1% of their GDP historically, and they've committed now to 5% going forward. So there's going to be a massive ramp, and we've seen that with a lot of the companies in Europe. And an example of a program is the Rafale program. It's been around a long time, but France has said that they are going to be increasing production of the Rafale in the coming years to meet the demand for European defense. And we have a very big position on the Rafale. So that's going to bode well for Hexcel. So the answer to that is yes. European defense is growing, and we expect it to continue growing, and we're going to be doubling down on that. Now with regard to the CH-53K, this was probably a bit of a softer quarter, Q3 on the CH-53K but you read that Lockheed signed a $10 billion deal with the Navy and the Marines to deliver 99 units that will take it out to 2032. So that is a great sign of confidence in the CH-53K program. And so we have a very large position on it, $2.5 million to $3.5 million per ship set. And so we're very excited about that program, very excited about this multiyear deal that Lockheed and Sikorsky were able to sign with the Navy and the Marine.

Q: Sheila Kahyaoglu: Patrick, congratulations and Tom, good luck. And maybe, Tom, if I could ask you on the first question Myles asked going back to that. Just the $1 billion of free cash flow over the next 4 years on an additional $500 million of revenue, assuming that 35% incremental historically holds, it still assumes some working capital lift. Can you maybe talk about how we should think about inventory unwind from here?

A: Well, the goal is to continue to drive it down. We've been running heavy on inventory because sales have been lower, and we produced, and we're managing that now a lot more tightly. And so the goal is we're, call it, 90, 95 days of receivables on hand and the goal is to drive that down into 70. That's more of a steady state for us. And if we can do better, we will but that's the target right now on inventory. So we will be winding inventory down in the coming quarters.

Q: Gautam Khanna: Congrats, Patrick. Guys, I may have missed it, but can you update us on what the A350 equivalent shipments are expected to be this year? Previously, I think you were saying low 60s. And I just want to make sure我 understood what happened in Q3 and...

A: That's not -- 60 is the right number. We started off much higher. Our original plan was 84, and that dropped after the first quarter to 68. We're staying about 60 right now.

Q: Noah Poponak: Patrick, let me add my thanks for all your help over the years. If I look at consensus right now, it has total company revenue up 12% full year 2026 versus 2025. Is that kind of growth directionally achievable? Or does the aerospace new build destock last long enough into '26 to make that look steep?

A: It probably looks a little bit steep. I don't think -- we're confident that we've reached the inflection point and it's going up but I don't think we want to overcall it. I think we want to be conservative in terms of what that outlook is. So it's definitely going up, and it will be a healthy increase but 12% is a little aggressive, and we'll see where we end up. But I think we'll also be conservative in our outlook of what we plan for and build and wait and see the increases happen before we get too far out in front of it.

Q: Scott Deuschle: Tom, just to clarify your response to Ken's question, do you expect to enter 2026 at 7 a month on the A350?

A: Yes, we do. They're there. A little bit of destocking in the fourth quarter, but they'll have a couple of months under their belt at 7, and we expect to enter '26 at 7 going to 8 and possibly 9 by the end of the year.

Q: Richard Safran: Patrick, wish you all the best. It's been a pleasure. Listen, Tom, I know you're coming off of facilities in Austria, Hartford and Belgium. I was just wondering if you're contemplating any further changes in the portfolio?

A: Well, we're always looking at the portfolio to figure out how to streamline and optimize it. And so there could be a few more things that we do. These were the big ones, but that's an ongoing part of our normal operating cadence. And so we're going to continue to look at that and figure out how do we optimize so that we get the best cost and make sure we're focused on the strategic priorities. And the #1 priority for us in the next few years is making sure we can ramp up to meet the production rate increases for our customers, the safety, quality and delivery. That's our #1 priority, and we'll continue to optimize the portfolio to help achieve that.