Grab Holdings Limited Q4 FY2025 earnings call

Management Statement and Operational Highlights

• Product Initiatives: GrabMart is growing faster, with deep integration with supermarkets, curated merchant selection, and the launch of GrabMore. On-Demand GMV saw a 21% year-over-year increase in Q4 2025, with transactions up 24%.
• Merchant Support: Grab offers merchants enterprise-level digital tools, integrated point-of-sale/payment systems, lending, and insights to drive merchant earnings growth. Active Deliveries merchants increased 9%, and their earnings rose 11% in 2025.
• Financial Services Strategy: The strategy is centered on embedded distribution via GrabPay, converting platform users to Financial Services customers. There are 7.4 million deposit customers across 3 banks in 3 years.
• AI and Technology: Leveraging AI for conversion, search, and personalization. Over 97% of merchant listings are available in English and Chinese. Over 90% of Mobility rides are dispatched by AI.
• Autonomous Vehicles: Partnered with WeRide for an AV shuttle service in Singapore. Working with regulators and retraining drivers for a hybrid fleet.

Segment Performance

• Deliveries: In 2025, total active Deliveries merchants increased 9% year-on-year, and their earnings rose 11%. GrabMart grew 1.7x faster than GrabFood, with a 30% year-on-year increase in users in 2025, accounting for 10% of Deliveries GMV. On-Demand GMV increased 21% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with transactions outpacing GMV growth at 24% year-over-year.
• Financial Services: GrabPay serves as the entry point to Financial Services. Over 3 years, it grew to 7.4 million deposit customers across 3 banks. The gross loan portfolio surpassed $1 billion in 2025, ending at $1.3 billion, with a goal to exit 2026 with over $2 billion in gross loan book.
• Mobility: Airport rides drive over 10% of Mobility GMV. Over 90% of Mobility rides are dispatched using AI.

Guidance

• 2026 Revenue: Expected to grow 20%-22% year-on-year to $4.04 billion to $4.1 billion.
• Adjusted EBITDA: Anticipated to grow 40%-44% year-on-year to $700 million to $720 million in 2026.
• 3-Year Outlook: Revenue is projected to have a 20% CAGR from 2025 to 2028. Adjusted EBITDA is targeted to triple from 2025 to reach $1.5 billion in 2028, with adjusted free cash flow conversion aiming for 80% by 2028.

Risks

• Indonesia Commission Speculation: The government has not proposed changes in commission caps, but is in close consultation. Focus is on driver welfare initiatives and productivity tools like Ride Guide to enhance driver earnings.
• Macro Economic Headwinds: Impact on GMV growth, but the product-led strategy aims to mitigate these effects.

Question and Answer

Q: Update on Indonesia's proposal to lower ride-hailing commissions and impact on margins?

A: The government has not proposed changes in commission caps; Grab is in close consultation with them. Focus is on driver welfare and productivity tools like Ride Guide to enhance driver earnings.

Q: AV initiatives progress and commercial rollout in other ASEAN countries?

A: Singapore is the blueprint; the Ai.R shuttle in Punggol has covered over 25,000 kilometers with 0 safety critical incidents. Retraining drivers for a hybrid fleet is ongoing.

Q: 3-year revenue guidance breakdown by segment, Deliveries EBITDA margin, Fintech breakeven?

A: Financial Services is growing faster; Deliveries margin is expected to expand; Fintech is on track to be breakeven in the second half of 2026.

Q: AI impact on Superapp strategy and user behavior?

A: AI is seen as an engine to scale the Superapp model; LLMs enhance discovery, and Grab's physical infrastructure and data act as a moat.

Q: Stash acquisition financials and rollout?

A: Stash is accretive, generating $60 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2028; focuses on an investing platform, not immediate Asia rollout but has long-term potential.

Q: Capital allocation strategy and new geographies?

A: There is disciplined inorganic growth with a focus on organic growth in existing markets; a $1 billion share repurchase program is in place.