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GGAL

Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A.

Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. Q3 FY2025 earnings call

November 26, 2025 · fiscal period ended 2025-09

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Summary

Generated 2025-11-26

Management highlights

  • Argentine economy saw 5% year-over-year increase in September, with primary surplus at 0.5% of GDP and overall surplus at 0.1% of GDP in Q3 2025. Inflation had fluctuations, with headline inflation at 2.1% in September and 2.3% in October 2025. Exchange rate had pressure with average ARS 1,400 per dollar in September, 15.6% devaluation from June. Peso and dollar-denominated deposits and loans had significant changes. - Grupo Financiero Galicia had net loss for the quarter due to various segments, but partial offset by profits from Galicia Asset Management. Included extraordinary restructuring expenses from HSBC merger. Liquidity and solvency metrics were monitored, with bank aiming for improvement in profitability in Q4 and next year.
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Segment performance

Net loss for the quarter amounted to ARS 87.7 billion. Losses from Banco Galicia were ARS 104 billion, from Naranja X ARS 6 billion, and from Galicia Seguros ARS 12 billion. Profits from Galicia Asset Management were ARS 25 billion. The loss represented a minus 0.8% annualized return on average assets and a minus 4.7% return on average shareholders' equity. The quarter included extraordinary restructuring expenses of ARS 105.3 billion net of income tax related to the HSBC merger. Without extraordinary expenses, quarter ROE would have been 1% and 9 months ROE 6.9%.

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Guidance

  • ROE for full year 2025 reported around 4%, excluding nonrecurring integration costs around 6%. 2026 ROE expected in low teens (11%-12%). 2027 Q4 ROE run rate projected at 15% level. - Margins expected to improve in first months of 2026, with slight reduction later but still healthy. - NPLs expected to peak in March 2026, then improve. - Cost reductions expected due to restructuring, with headcount reduction of 2,000 for the year.
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Risks

  • Macroeconomic volatility in Argentina, including inflation, exchange rate pressure, and interest rate swings. - Credit risk related to nonperforming loans, particularly in personal loans and credit card financing. - Integration risks from the HSBC merger, including ongoing effects of restructuring expenses and potential impact on future results.
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Q&A highlights

Q: Looking at capital ratio and loan origination, how is capital positioned and what about loan origination duration?

A: Regarding capital, Tier 1 ratio in October was 24.5% and comfortable, with no immediate need for capital restriction. In loan origination, consumer lending has some slowdown due to portfolio quality, while commercial financing is being adjusted with expected longer durations next year as economy stabilizes Q: On loan growth expectations for next year, potential private investments in Argentina, and NPLs and cost of risk peak?

A: Loan growth expected around 25% real terms next year, with commercial lending focusing on sectors like oil, gas, mining, agri, and local M&A. NPLs and cost of risk expected to peak in March 2026, with cost of risk peaking around 9%-10% then decreasing Q: Clarification on ROE trend and funding cost advantage?

A: ROE expected to be lower in first half 2026 then recover, with Naranja's portfolio also needing improvement. Funding cost advantage is considered, with focus on deposit base and potential market debt, expecting deposit growth to improve next year Q: Naranja's asset quality and margin trends?

A: Naranja's NPLs expected to peak around same time as bank's, with faster cure due to shorter lending duration. Margins saw bottom in October 2025, with improvement in November and December, expecting good margins in 2026 Q: Remaining integration costs from HSBC acquisition?

A: Most restructuring costs booked in Q3 2025, with small potential costs in Q4 related to systems but nothing significant Q: Macroeconomic assumptions, liquidity coverage, and dollarization?

A: Macroeconomic assumptions include GDP growth, inflation, and exchange rate forecasts. Liquidity coverage ratio is over 180%. Dollar lending expected to continue with moderate growth, dollar purchase demand from customers has decreased Q: Confidence in first quarter 2026 as NPL peak and expected loss model?

A: Confidence in first quarter 2026 as NPL peak based on monitoring roles of new lending, better underwriting, and economy improvement. Expected loss model considers both controllable and uncontrollable factors, with new lending booking reserves based on past performance Q: Return on equity aim and loans to GDP assumption?

A: Aim for sustainable ROE between 15%-20% by 2027. Loans to GDP expected to grow at least 2% per year, aiming for improvement in loan-to-GDP penetration in Argentina

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Transcript

November 26, 2025

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