Genius Sports Limited Q3 FY2025 earnings call

Management Statement and Operational Highlights

• Revenue Growth: Group revenue up 38% YOY, strongest since Q1 2022. Adjusted EBITDA up 32% YOY to $34 million, 20% margin.
• Betting Insights: Secured European Leagues and Serie A rights, expanded partnerships, positive in-play betting trends (30% of NFL handle in first 6 weeks), BetVision adoption growing with over 100 sportsbooks using it.
• Media Insights: Strong revenue growth driven by unique advertising platform (live sports data, audience data, unique inventory), acquired Sports Innovation Lab, successful broadcast augmentations for WNBA games.
• Prediction Markets: Monitoring developments, will comply with regulations, sees potential but needs to meet regulatory and commercial thresholds before engaging.

Segment Performance

• Betting: Revenue increased 28% year-on-year. Secured exclusive rights to European Leagues and Serie A, expanded partnerships with Hard Rock Bet (now providing additional content and live trading services across multiple sports) and ESPN BET (now includes BetVision for full suite of soccer and basketball content). In-play betting represented 30% of total NFL handle in the first 6 weeks. BetVision product is available on nearly every major U.S. sportsbook, with over 350 brands using it and over 23,000 events per year across soccer, basketball, etc.
• Media: Revenue increased nearly 90% year-on-year to $42 million, a new quarterly record. Leverages unique sports data, audience data (acquired Sports Innovation Lab for deeper fan understanding), and unique inventory. Successful broadcast augmentations for WNBA games, partnerships with agencies like P&G driving growth.

Guidance

• Raised group revenue guidance to $655 million (28% growth).
• Raised group adjusted EBITDA guidance to $136 million (59% growth, 21% margin).
• Media growth expected to be nearly 30% full year, up from initial mid-teens.
• Betting expected to grow ~30% full year.

Risks

• Regulatory Risks: Prediction markets require compliance with regulations, need to work with regulators and stakeholders to meet thresholds.
• Timing Mismatches: Revenue timing mismatch with Serie A and EPFL rights deals, leading to temporary expense impact in the quarter.

Question and Answer

Q: Quantify revenue timing mismatch for Serie A and EPFL contracts?

A: No specific quantification provided.

Q: Media segment outperformance and margin flow-through?

A: Rights timing impact, Media revenue growth flows through at lower margin than Betting, but trends positive with year-to-date margin growth.

Q: Prediction markets and integrity?

A: Monitoring regulation, integrity is vital, and official data is key for the ecosystem.

Q: ESPN blackout impact on BetVision?

A: No specific comment, but BetVision growth continues with increased sportsbook adoption.

Q: In-play betting mix and NFL?

A: In-play mix flat year-over-year, early in season, parlay mix matters in determining trends.

Q: Media go-to-market strategy and in-play mix in BetVision?

A: Focus on agencies, BetVision in-play mix closer to 70-75% in deeper fan engagement.

Q: Free cash flow in Q4?

A: Expect strong cash flow, back half typically positive, but timing of rights and one-off expenses factor in.

Q: Risks around bet type restrictions?

A: Focus on official data and regulator visibility, no particular risks if market evolves with leagues.

Q: NFL international expansion and BetVision soccer/basketball rollouts?

A: NFL gaining traction internationally, BetVision adoption strong with over 100 customers using the product.

Q: Margin target and growth vs profitability?

A: Target 30% margin, focusing on cash flow conversion, details to be discussed at Investor Day.