Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Common Stock Q4 FY2025 earnings call

• 2025 was a remarkable year with crossing into public markets, starting as a Bitcoin company, becoming a crypto company, and now a markets company via a super app. - Gemini credit card had strong growth in 2025 with card signups growing nearly 15 times and credit card revenue reaching $33.1 million, up 185% year-over-year. - Launched Gemini predictions in December, investing in building own prediction marketplace infrastructure. - AI is changing the workforce and workflows, with AI used in more than 40% of production code changes and expecting to climb to close to 100% soon. - Focused on doubling down on America, exiting UK, EU, and Australian markets to reduce expenses and accelerate path to profitability. - Love being a public company, viewing feedback loop as a benefit.

Net revenue for Q4 was $56.4 million, up 13% from Q3. Transaction revenue was $26.7 million, up slightly from Q3's $26.3 million, with spot volumes at $11.5 billion. Services revenue was $26.5 million, up 33% sequentially. Credit card revenue was $16 million, up 87% from Q3. Staking revenue was $5.1 million, down 13% from Q3. Full-year net revenue was $174 million, up 24% year-over-year. Transaction revenue was $98 million, services and interest revenue was $76 million. Total operating expenses for Q4 were $171.7 million, essentially flat from Q3. Full-year total operating expenses were $525 million, up from $308 million in 2024.

• Not providing total operating expense guidance for 2026 due to restructured cost base taking shape and uncertain macro environment. - Expect compensation excluding stock-based comp and restructuring charges to decline 15 to 20% relative to 2025. - Stock-based compensation expected to total $100 million to $115 million in 2026. - Technology and G&A expected to range from $155 million to $190 million. - Marketing expenses excluding rewards and promotions expected at 10 to 15% of revenue. - Expect improvement in adjusted EBITDA in 2026 with disciplined cost structure and diversified revenue base.

• Cyclical nature of crypto is a challenge. - Regulatory and competitive landscape in crypto and prediction markets poses risks. - Uncertainty in macro environment affecting forecasting and operating expenses.

Q: Could you update us on the drivers of the recent executive departures and how this fits into your new strategy?

A: Summer was different, with IPO and market drop, and with AI inflection point, determined to have smaller, flatter, AI-enabled organization still founder-led.

Q: You continue to see traction growing your user base despite the rough crypto market backdrop. What do you believe is driving this user growth and how do you plan to cross-sell prediction markets into this large and growing user base?

A: Key driver is user acquisition through credit card program and new products like predictions; Gemini started as Bitcoin company, became crypto company, added stake and credit card, and will continue adding products.

Q: Can you help us frame the path to sustain positive standalone card economics, specifically the relative contributions from rewards optimization, lower acquisition costs, provision and credit normalization, and cheaper, broader funding capacity?

A: Near break-even on card in Q4, revenue growth from interchange and interest income, cost levers include rewards optimization, organic sign-ups, bank fee improvements, credit performance trending, and funding cost efficiency.

Q: 15,000 users have used prediction markets through the end of February. How has that translated to revenue? Where do you see the growth potential from there? How do you compete versus peers that have a higher number of active users?

A: Revenue update coming soon, early traction with 15,000 users, growing daily, and Gemini has over a decade of experience in building marketplaces, which is an advantage.

Q: How are you thinking about capital raising and liquidity if we assume crypto volumes remain lower than 2025 levels through 2026 and 2027?

A: Planning with conservative assumptions, focusing on scaling durable recurring revenue streams less dependent on trading volumes, evaluating opportunities to strengthen balance sheet, and building products beyond crypto cycles.

Q: What is Gemini's OpEx discipline going forward and has management put in place guardrails that helps ensure eventual profitability at the EBITDA level?

A: OpEx discipline is core, reset to lower fixed cost base, clear guardrails on incremental spend, selective headcount growth, marketing as variable lever, and focused on high impact initiatives to drive operating leverage.

Q: Given the regulatory and competitive landscape in crypto and prediction markets, what are the biggest external risks you're managing against in 2026? And what would you point to as your most underappreciated competitive advantage?

A: Efforts in passing crypto market structure bill and work at SEC and CFTC to create path for super apps; being one of few building full end-to-end prediction market marketplace within same organization as crypto marketplace is an advantage.