Six Flags Entertainment Corporation Q3 FY2025 earnings call

• Performance in 2025 fell short of expectations with flat third quarter EBITDA year-over-year due to softer demand in September despite July and August growth. - Ongoing constructive engagement with JANA Partners group, including Travis Kelce, with consumer interest reinforcing Six Flags' relevance. - Portfolio analysis: 70% of property level EBITDA from outperforming parks, 30% from underperforming. Underperforming parks may be deemed non-core and considered for monetization. - Initiatives in underperforming parks included increasing operating expenses and promotions, but results varied. - October attendance was down 11% vs 2024 but up 7% vs 2023; outperforming parks up 11% vs 2023, underperforming up 4%. - Integration efforts: unified website launched, unified ticketing platform by year-end, migration to single ERP system by early 2026 for administrative efficiencies.

For the third quarter, Six Flags delivered modified EBITDA of approximately $580 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $550 million on attendance of 21.1 million guests and revenues of $1.32 billion. Year-to-date, certain parks representing approximately 70% of property level EBITDA have continued to outperform, while parks representing roughly 30% of property level EBITDA have underperformed. The third quarter began strong with July and August attendance up ~2%, but September attendance declined ~5% from the prior year, impacting net revenues and EBITDA.

• Full year adjusted EBITDA outlook revised to $780 million to $805 million. - CapEx projection for 2026 remains approximately $400 million, with mix of spend unchanged as big projects have longer lead times. - Focus on refining strategies for 2026 based on learnings from 2025, including reevaluating marketing approach and park investments.

• Softer-than-expected demand in September offset July and August momentum. - Advertising reallocation from third quarter to first half may have impacted demand and top line. - Macro-economic factors and missteps in pricing, promotions, and advertising as potential headwinds. - Challenges in turning around underperforming parks within a reasonable time frame to see returns.

Q: Can you quantify how many parks are outperforming vs underperforming?

A: We're not going to break out the number of properties that sit in each side, but outperforming parks represent ~70% of property level EBITDA year-to-date.

Q: How much of the delta in guidance is due to weather vs other factors?

A: The majority of the miss is an attendance-driven miss in 2025, and we're reevaluating each park's current status and potential.

Q: At what point do underperforming parks become non-core?

A: It's an ongoing process, depending on how fast we think we can ramp up demand and market-specific factors, and we're refining criteria with the Board.

Q: Expectations for attendance in remaining of Q4?

A: Assumed flat to down mid-single digits due to comparable operating days and loss of attendance from winter events.

Q: Time line for deciding on non-core assets?

A: We have a good idea of low-hanging fruit, moving with urgency as we build out 2026 plans, and may pivot on core parks if not seeing returns.

Q: How much data do you collect from customers?

A: We rely on NPS, OSAT scores, brand tracker research, and specific initiative research, constantly getting feedback from consumers.

Q: Plans for marketing in 2026?

A: Reassessing marketing approach, reevaluating allocation, pacing, and messaging to align with seasonal demand curves.

Q: CapEx for 2026?

A: CapEx spend in 2026 remains ~$400 million, with mix unchanged as big projects have longer lead times.

Q: Correlation between park performance and monetization?

A: Parks with better performance and brand perception are more valuable for monetization, while underperforming parks with excess land may be considered.