Franco-Nevada Corporation
Franco-Nevada Corporation Q4 FY2025 earnings call
March 11, 2026 · fiscal period ended 2025-12
EPS · actual vs est
Revenue · actual vs est
Summary
Generated 2026-03-11
Management highlights
• 2025 was a record year driven by high precious metal prices and growing production, with annual earnings up ~75% and a ~60% earnings margin. • Increased dividend for the 19th consecutive time with a 16% increase. • Identified $250 million in exploration spend on Canadian assets alone and expects more globally. • Added six quality long-dated assets in 2024 and 2025, with GMIN and Discovery share prices increasing tenfold. • Backed new teams in North America and Australia, adding 820,000 royalty ounces post year end with an undiscounted value over $4 billion at today's gold prices. • Named one of the 100 most sustainable corporations globally. • 2026 GEO guidance shows growth over 2025, with focus on leveraging mineral tenure and potential Cobre Panama restart.
Segment performance
In 2025, Franco-Nevada had record-breaking results driven by high precious metal prices and growing production. Revenue was higher by 64%, adjusted EBITDA 74%, and adjusted net income 74% for the year. For the fourth quarter, total GEO sold increased 18% to $141,856, with precious metal geos sold 127,959 (34% higher than prior year). Precious metals accounted for 90% of revenue in the quarter. 85% of full-year 2025 revenue was from precious metals, with 88% sourced from the Americas. Diversified assets had 78,966 geos sold for the year. The 2026 GEO guidance ranges from 510,000 to 570,000 geos sold, with 90% from precious metals and 10% from diversified assets. The 2030 outlook is 555,000 to 615,000 geos sold, with contributors including new mines and expansions.
Guidance
• 2026 GEO sold expected to range from 510,000 to 570,000 geos, with 90% from precious metals and 10% from diversified assets. • 2030 GEO sold outlook is 555,000 to 615,000 geos, with contributors like new mines and expansions. • Cobre Panama restart could add significant growth, potentially contributing 150,000 to 175,000 geos per year if restarted. • Guidance based on $70 per barrel oil; if oil prices sustain higher, 2026 guidance may be conservative.
Risks
• Cyclical nature of commodities; if commodity prices decline, it could impact financial performance. • Uncertainty around the timing and approval of Cobre Panama's processing stockpiles and restart. • Jurisdictional risks in certain mining areas could affect acquisitions and operations. • Dependence on key assets; step downs in deliveries at some assets like Candelaria and Antipokai in future years.
Q&A highlights
Q: On South Arturo, expectations for 2026 and 2030.
A: South Arturo was strong in Q4, 2026 should be strong but falls back off in 2027 with minimal for 2030.
Q: On Cascabel stream buyback and 2030 production.
A: Stream buyback ounces not in guidance yet, working on accounting; 2030 Cascabel mine start is in outlook, range 15,000 to 20,000 geos.
Q: On Muscle White NPI.
A: MPI not estimated yet, likely a true out but quantum unknown.
Q: On energy prices impact.
A: $5 increase in WTI price is ~7% increase in energy revenue.
Q: On Cobre Panama next steps.
A: Gov't target is summit for resolution, ramp up could be 6 months to 50% and 12 months to 90% if processing stockpiles allowed.
Q: On public traded equity investments.
A: Large part are shares in GMIN and Discovery, long-term holders but may take money off table if good opportunities.
Q: On year-to-date cash receipts and discount rates.
A: No quarter-to-date estimate; consider good jurisdictions and payback when considering discount rates in acquisitions.
Q: On guidance showing and 2030 breakdown.
A: Revenue realized at actual prices, GEO against guidance based on disclosed prices; 2030 guidance broken between precious metals and diversified, Bulla Bulling minimal in 2030.
Q: On strategic focus on OECD-type host countries.
A: Strategy is to have most assets in great mining jurisdictions, which includes Canada, US, Australia, etc., not just a coincidence.
Key numbers
Reported versus consensus
Earnings calendar feed
| Metric | Reported | Consensus | Delta | Prior year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.85 | $1.67 | +10.8% | $0.95 |
| Revenue | $604.9M | $600.0M | +0.8% | $317.9M |
Transcript
March 11, 2026Full transcript unavailable for redistribution
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