Flutter Entertainment plc Q4 FY2025 earnings call

Peter Jackson mentioned Flutter is the world's leading online sports betting and iGaming company. 2025 was transformative with group revenue up 17% and adjusted EBITDA 21% higher. In US, maintained leadership in online sports betting and iGaming, launched Fangio Predicts in Q4. International business strengthened portfolio with acquisitions in Brazil and Italy. Made progress on transformation and efficiency programs. Addressed Q4 sportsbook trends in US, including adverse recycling, lower customer engagement due to less compelling NFL content, and took actions to strengthen capabilities like leveraging scale and data for product improvements. Also updated on international business progress like PokerStars migrations in Italy and SNAI business integration.

In the US, Q4 revenue growth was 33%, with adjusted EBITDA 90% higher. International revenue grew 19% in Q4, and adjusted EBITDA increased 6%. Group revenue increased by 25% and adjusted EBITDA grew 27% in Q4. US iGaming revenue grew 33% driven by 18% AMPS growth and increased player frequency. Fangio Sportsbook Q4 revenue growth was 35%. International business saw strong progress with strategic transformations and integrations, like Skybet Sportsbook Migration delivering cost savings in UKI, Flutter regaining Italian online market leadership in Q4, etc.

In the US, expect revenue of $7.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.05 billion in 2026, with year-over-year growth of 12% and 14% respectively, including new state investment of $70 million in adjusted EBITDA as expected to launch Alberta in Q2. International expects revenue of $10.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.23 billion at the midpoint, representing year-over-year growth of 13% and 1% respectively. Unallocated corporate costs expected to be $310 million, a $30 million increase compared with prior year. Prediction markets investment expected to be towards the upper end of the previously guided range, closer to $300 million.

Market trends in US sportsbook can be volatile with factors like sports results impacting handle growth. Regulatory changes in various markets pose uncertainties. Competition in the online sports betting and iGaming space can affect market share. Credit card deposit changes may have potential impacts if not managed properly.

Q: Jordan Bender asked about handle growth recovery from 4Q recycling and net new customers.

A: Peter Jackson said the US football season has high volatility, compared with other markets, and amps in pre-2025 states were growing in Q4.

Q: Paul Ruddy asked about strategy change on hold positive, handle passive and handle impact quantification.

A: Peter Jackson said it was about generosity deployment and complex relationship with margins.

Q: Barry Jonas asked about prediction product improvement and US state tax increases.

A: Peter Jackson said prediction product has good plans, and on tax, there's noise but well-placed to mitigate.

Q: Jeff Stanchel asked about reconciling market share loss and Missouri launch, and unallocated corporate costs.

A: Peter Jackson said Missouri launch was successful, and corporate costs had resegmentation and investment reasons with cost optimisation planned.

Q: Brent Montour asked about guiding philosophy on sport outcomes.

A: Rob Coldrake said sensible measured approach with focus on revenue as core KPI.

Q: Ed Young asked about generosity strategy and product side vs competition.

A: Peter Jackson said didn't execute generosity strategy well in Q4, and working on product improvements like loyalty program and outcome-based pricing.

Q: Sean Kelly asked about US revenue guidance and NBA share.

A: Rob Coldrake said current trading had NFL season impact but trends improving, and NBA has impact from football margins.

Q: Jed Kelly asked about prediction markets DCM license or JV with CME.

A: Peter Jackson said spent time on prediction markets, happy with CME and product changes planned.

Q: Dan Pulitzer asked about prediction markets incremental spend.

A: Peter Jackson said disciplined approach, investing in second half, and expect to spend towards top end.

Q: Bernie McTernan asked about Arkansas launch.

A: Peter Jackson said excited about Arkansas launch with traditional RSP and generosity playbook.

Q: Ben Shelley asked about US online sports betting market share stabilization.

A: Peter Jackson said confident in products, loyalty program, and generosity work to hold and gain share.

Q: Clark Lampin asked about sportsbook loyalty program rollout and iGaming impact.

A: Peter Jackson said will launch loyalty program, and casino rewards program helped with customer saliency.

Q: Ian Moore asked about capital allocation and FOX option.

A: Rob Coldrake said capital allocation balanced between investment and returning capital, and no update on FOX option.

Q: Robert Fishman asked about US iGaming growth sustainability.

A: Rob Coldrake said iGaming market grew 26% in 2025, expects mid to high teens growth ahead.

Q: Joe Stoff asked about generosity investments and returns.

A: Peter Jackson said didn't deploy generosity efficiently in Q4, addressing by better deploying generosity.

Q: Chad Baden asked about UK iGaming impact and competitor behavior.

A: Peter Jackson said not seeing different activity yet, but expect changes, and confident in mitigation.

Q: John Decree asked about prediction markets accelerating OSB and iGaming regulation.

A: Peter Jackson said prediction markets help hasten regulation, and having fruitful conversations.

Q: Monique Pollard asked about FanDuel Predicts spending and guidance.

A: Rob Coldrake said spent less than Q3 guide, and expect to spend towards top end of range.

Q: Ryan Sigdal asked about maintaining structurally higher hold and retaining players' wallets.

A: Peter Jackson said addressing by better deploying personalized generosity.

Q: Richard Stuber asked about credit card deposits.

A: Peter Jackson said anticipating de minimis impact from credit card deposit change, within plans.