Ero Copper Corp.
Ero Copper Corp. Q4 FY2025 earnings call
March 6, 2026 · fiscal period ended 2025-12
EPS · actual vs est
Revenue · actual vs est
Summary
Generated 2026-03-06
Management highlights
· Highlighted Furnas project's maiden preliminary economic analysis, expected to produce over 1.2 million tons of copper, 2 million ounces of gold, and 9 million ounces of silver over 24-year mine life, with after-tax NPV ~$2 billion and IRR >27% on $1.3 billion initial capital. · Plan to complete 50,000 meters of exploration drilling in 2026, pursue initiatives to strengthen economics like adding magnetite recovery circuit and gravity pre-concentration stage. · 2025 results: sequential quarters of improving operational performance, Javanchina unlocking new value driver. · 2026 guidance: assumes Q4 operational performance gains sustained, at Tucumot adding tailings filtration equipment not reflected in guidance, at Javanchina investing in ventilation circuit, mine development, and equipment to increase capacity, at Cariba advancing new shaft project and operational improvement initiatives. · 2026 consolidated copper production guidance 67,500 - 77,500 tons, weighted towards second half; Javanchina mine production guidance 40,000 - 50,000 ounces, Q1 softest, weighted towards second half
Segment performance
Cariba: Q4 represented strongest operating quarter of the year, mill throughput reached nearly 1.2 million tons, up 18% q-o-q, copper production up 15% q-o-q, C1 cash costs $2.27 per pound. Tucumba: Copper production increased more than 22% q-o-q, C1 cash costs $1.75 per pound, ~10 cents attributable to expensing unamortized portion of liners. Javanchina: Production increased 53% q-o-q, driven by higher grades and improved throughput, gold concentrate program resulted in incremental 15,000 ounces of gold in Q4, total gold from Javanchina nearly 20,000 ounces in a quarter and over 50,000 ounces for full year
Guidance
· Consolidated copper production guidance for 2026: 67,500 to 77,500 tons, year-over-year growth driven by higher sustained plant throughput at Kawariba and Tukama, partially offset by lower plan grades, weighted towards second half. · Javanchina mine production guidance for 2026: 40,000 to 50,000 ounces, Q1 softest, weighted towards second half. · Intend for debt reduction and return to shareholders to be key elements of mid-term capital allocation strategy, target net debt to EBITDA ratio below one times ahead of commencing return of capital program
Q&A highlights
Q: Question around the gold concentrate stockpiles at Gervantina, A: Difficult to give exact guidance, expect strong volumes and shipments, Q1 expected to be very modest due to rainy season, no indication grade of other 80% stockpile materially different.
Q: Update on PICUMA's filter press issue, A: Equipment ordered, being manufactured, not reflected in 2026 guidance, maintenance for mill lining already completed in Q4, no extended downtime planned in Q1, reconciliation of grade and throughput, expected grades to come down, processed throughput below three million tons, copper between 1.3 and 1.4 for full year.
Q: On Tocuman, C1 cash cost guidance, A: Main drivers grade, additional maintenance costs, TCRCs and shipment-related costs due to lower grade concentrate and longer transport, BRL headwind.
Q: Benefits from mechanization investments, A: Reducing workforce exposure, matching mine output with mill capacity in future.
Q: Capital return once net debt to EBITDA gets to targeted levels, A: Need net debt leverage ratio below one times, pay down revolver, stay tuned on what that might look like.
Q: Opportunity to accelerate Furnas project, A: Excited about Furnas, need to do work for pre-feasibility study, execute value drivers, advance permitting, already advancing and expect modest capital spend.
Q: Gold concentrate sales timeline, A: Still mid-2027-ish.
Q: Exploration spend, A: Lion's share at Furnas, still advancing opportunities across portfolio.
Q: Heavy rainfalls impact on concentrate shipments, A: Operational disruption reflected in guidance.
Q: TCRCs in C-1 cash costs, A: Based on long-term contracts, commercially sensitive, still very low.
Q: Ferna drilling, A: PEA includes 28,000 meters of 50,000 meters drilled last year, expect to complete another 50,000 meters in 2026, objectives to convert inferred to measured and indicated resources and improve production profile.
Q: Drill density and filing technical report, A: Can't provide drill density off hand, technical report to be filed shortly, resource statement doesn't include dilution, mine plan has fully diluted.
Q: Fernas drilling chasing high-grade material, A: Project stands on own feet, drilling extends deposit both to depth and laterally along strike, expect to include in future studies, need infill drilling for pre-feasibility study
Key numbers
Reported versus consensus
Earnings calendar feed
| Metric | Reported | Consensus | Delta | Prior year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.04 | $1.03 | +1.0% | — |
| Revenue | $325.1M | $379.8M | -14.4% | — |
Transcript
March 6, 2026Full transcript unavailable for redistribution
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