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Ecopetrol S.A.

Ecopetrol S.A. Q3 FY2025 earnings call

November 15, 2025 · fiscal period ended 2025-09

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Summary

Generated 2025-11-15

Management highlights

  • Operational Performance: Robust production across segments, refining rebounded post-maintenance, transportation throughput high. Exploration drilled 10 oils, 3 underway. - Financial Performance: EBITDA up 11% QoQ to 41% margin, net income up 42%, cash position at COP 14.1 trillion. - Sustainability: Reduced GHG emissions by 379,000 tons, renewable capacity at 234 MW, ISO 37001 certification, workplace environment index improved to 68. - Hydrocarbons Specifics: EBITDA in Hydrocarbons business line at $45.5 per barrel, lifting costs at $11.8 per barrel. - Energy Transition Specifics: La Iguana solar project energized, Windpeshi wind farm community engagement, acquisition of solar projects.
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Segment performance

Hydrocarbons: Achieved key exploration and production milestones, with average production of 751,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, domestic crude production at 519,000 bpd (driven by Caño Sur and CPO-09), international production supported by Permian operations (106,000 boe/d net). Accumulated EBITDA of $691 million with a margin of 78%. Midstream: Transported an average of 1,118,000 barrels per day, up 1% QoQ and 3% QoQ, with strategic advances like Covenas-Barrancabermeja connection. Refining: Throughput reached ~429,000 bpd, second highest quarterly level, integrated gross refining margin up 22% YTD. Energy Transition: Renewable self-generation capacity at 254 MW, with La Iguana solar project adding 26 MW, and acquisition of solar projects from Statkraft.

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Guidance

  • EBITDA and net income showed recovery, with EBITDA margin at 41%. - Production guidance maintained near annual range (740-750k boe/d). - Focus on 2026: Strengthen resilience and competitiveness, keep lifting costs low, strict capital discipline, incorporate efficiency initiatives.
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Risks

  • Potential divestment of Permian asset, with Ecopetrol and shareholders not interested but decisions to be made by board. - Compliance risks related to OFAC, with ongoing monitoring and mitigation plans. - Exchange rate impact on financials, sensitivity analysis showing COP 0.7B effect per COP 100 exchange rate variation. - DIAN tax issues, with measures in place to protect operations. - Suspension of Tibu operations affecting gas service, efforts to reestablish soon.
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Q&A highlights

Q: Given public discussion about possible sale of Permian asset, is there a formal instruction or government expectation to sell, and analysis of value creation/destruction?

A: Julian Lemos Valero states Ecopetrol and shareholders are not interested in divestment, decisions will be analyzed by board.

Q: Risk of senior management member being on OFAC list and impact on financing, markets, vendors?

A: Rodolfo García Paredes states Ecopetrol has robust compliance system, ongoing monitoring and risk evaluation for such scenarios.

Q: Impact of exchange rate on operating earnings and specifics on Sirius project assistance from government?

A: Camilo Barco discusses exchange rate sensitivity and positive contribution to net profit, Rafael Guzmán mentions ongoing assistance with Sirius project and collaboration with DANCP.

Q: Impact of DIAN embargo on bonds and operations?

A: Camilo Barco states DIAN has discarded embargo, measures in place to protect operations and financial obligations.

Q: Production perspective for 4Q 2025 and 2026, refining margins normalization?

A: Rafael Guzmán expects 4Q production near annual range, Felipe Trujillo outlines 5 elements to improve refinery EBITDA and yields.

Q: Capital allocation, divestment of assets like Permian, and acquisition of stakes?

A: Rafael Guzmán and Julian Lemos Valero discuss capital allocation to higher profitability assets, potential divestment of non-priority assets and acquisition of partners in specific assets.

Q: Dividend payout expectations and potential changes, room for reducing lifting costs?

A: Camilo Barco states dividend policy range 40-60% of distributable profit, Rafael Guzmán outlines measures to reduce lifting costs via efficiency and asset turnover.

Q: Details on new loan facility, rate, and use?

A: Unknown executive states committed COP 700 billion credit line at IBR plus 2.65, available for use as needed.

Q: Impact of Tibu operations suspension on gas service and duration?

A: Unknown executive states suspension of northern part of Tibu field, gas production <1% of total, efforts to reestablish soon.

View in transcript ↓

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Transcript

November 15, 2025

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