Duke Energy Corporation Q4 FY2025 earnings call

Winter Storms Response: Acknowledged teammates' strong response to recent winter storms, with the system performing well due to grid hardening investments. ### 2025 Financial Accomplishments: Delivered strong reported and adjusted earnings above guidance midpoint, announced strategic transactions at premium valuations, credit profile strengthened, recovered and securitized nearly $3 billion of storm costs, and advanced all-of-the-above generation strategy with new battery storage and gas generation projects. ### 2026 Focus Areas: - Deliver value for customers by keeping rates low through cost management, tax credits, and regulatory mechanisms. - Advance construction on new generation, with approximately 14 gigawatts of incremental capacity over five years. - Convert economic development pipeline into firm projects, having signed electric service agreements for one and a half gigawatts of new data centers. - Build on constructive regulatory outcomes, including progress in North Carolina rate case requests for new multiyear rate plans.

In 2025, Duke Energy Corporation announced earnings per share of $6.31, representing 7% growth over 2024. The 2026 earnings guidance is set at $6.55 to $6.80. The company's regulated utilities performance contributed to strong financial results, with a $103 billion five-year capital plan focused on critical energy infrastructure investments.

2025: Reported earnings per share of $6.31, 7% growth over 2024, above midpoint of guidance range. ### 2026: Earnings guidance set at $6.55 to $6.80. ### Long-Term: Extending 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030 off the original 2025 guidance midpoint of $6.30. ### Capital Plan: $103 billion five-year capital plan, driving 9.6% earnings-based growth, the largest fully regulated capital plan in the industry.

No specific detailed risks discussed in depth, but potential challenges in rate case outcomes and execution risks related to large-scale generation projects and data center developments could be areas of concern.

Q: Any costs or impacts from the recent storms that could affect guidance?

A: Still compiling storm costs, but no anticipated impacts to 2026 guidance. The team responded well with 95% of 200,000 outages restored within 24 hours.

Q: Thoughts on North Carolina rate case and affordability strategy?

A: Focused on delivering reliable and affordable energy, using tools like tax credits and utility merger to mitigate increases, with a history of constructive rate case settlements.

Q: Confidence in data center ESA signings and rolling into the plan?

A: Very confident, with signed ESAs under construction, zoning in hand, and a robust pipeline, expecting these to move the needle and support growth starting in 2028.

Q: Drivers behind top half performance beginning in 2028?

A: Load growth from data centers ramping up, robust regulatory outcomes, and constructive approaches to customer affordability and cost management.

Q: Key assumptions for FFO to debt targets?

A: Improving operating cash flows from regulatory execution, continued support from multiyear rate plans and CWIP recovery, and equity funding to support capital investments.

Q: Generation build cycle constraints and EPC contracts?

A: Planning for three years, using programmatic approach with EPC vendors for efficiencies and timely execution of gas generation projects.

Q: Data center impact on residential customers and regulation?

A: Data centers pay fair share through contracts, protecting residential customers, and regulators are supportive of the constructive approach to ensuring no impact on smaller customers.

Q: Data center flexibility and interconnection speed?

A: Contracts include provisions for flexibility to speed up interconnection, beneficial for both data centers and reliability.

Q: Data center load growth in load projections?

A: Data centers comprise a growing component of load growth, especially in The Carolinas, with 75% of economic development load by 2030.

Q: Rate base CAGR and minority interest impact?

A: Rate base CAGR of 9.6% gross, with minority interest in Florida transaction, but proceeds from transactions support balance sheet strength.