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DEO

Diageo plc

Diageo plc Q2 FY2025 earnings call

February 4, 2025 · fiscal period ended 2024-12

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Summary

Generated 2025-02-04

Management highlights

• Positive momentum in first half despite challenging macro environment, with organic net sales growth and market share gains in 65% of measured markets. • Region-specific highlights: North America had slight growth, Europe resilient with Guinness, Asia Pacific impacted by macro issues, LAC back in growth, Africa strong. • U.S. performance: Despite consumer pressure, U.S. Spirits had share gains, Crown Royal and Don Julio performed well, Casamigos turnaround in progress. • Nik's first impressions: Visited multiple regions, committed to strengthening balance sheet and deleverage, highlighted half-year results including organic net sales growth, FCF increase, and dividend. • Half-year highlights: Organic net sales up 1%, gross margin improved, FCF increased by $125 million, dividend of $0.405 declared. • Tariff discussion: Tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico add complexity, Diageo has contingency plans. • Reshape priorities: Focus on sustainable top-line growth, operating leverage, and maximizing shareholder returns, including productivity programs, marketing spend rigor, and supply chain optimization.

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Segment performance

In the first half of fiscal '25, Diageo showed positive momentum. Organic net sales returned to growth of 1%. Regionally, North America had slight organic net sales growth; Europe had resilient performance with Guinness driving growth; Asia Pacific was negatively impacted by macroeconomic issues; Latin America and Caribbean was back in growth; Africa had strong organic net sales growth. Market share: Held or grew share in 65% of total net sales in measured markets. In categories, Scotch organic net sales declined 5% due to softer industry performance, but gained quality market share. Tequila organic net sales were up 21%, led by Don Julio. Guinness had 17% organic net sales growth, achieving 8th consecutive half of double-digit growth.

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Guidance

• Expect to build on first half momentum for full-year fiscal '25, but tariffs could impact. • Anticipate slight decline in organic operating profit in second half due to higher staff costs and strategic investments. • Removed medium-term guidance of 5%-7% organic net sales growth due to macro uncertainty, will provide near-term updates. • Focus on deleveraging to return to target leverage range of 2.5x to 3x net debt to EBITDA through stronger profit delivery, productivity initiatives, and selective disposals.

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Risks

• Tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico add complexity, impacting input costs for tequila and Canadian whiskey. • Uncertainty around timing and impact of retaliatory tariffs, creating disruption in the short term. • Continued macroeconomic volatility and inflationary pressures affecting consumer sentiment and volume growth.

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Transcript

February 4, 2025

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