ConocoPhillips Q1 FY2026 earnings call

Ryan M. Lance acknowledged the Middle East conflict and its impact on energy markets. First quarter saw strong financial and operational performance with $2.4 billion free cash flow and $2 billion returned to shareholders. Priorities include delivering base dividend growth, maintaining investment-grade balance sheet, returning significant CFO to shareholders, and disciplined reinvestment for growth. In 2026, expected CFO generation is up due to unhedged oil and LNG torque, added Permian activity in second half to maintain operational efficiency into 2027. Long term, has high-quality asset base with deepest Lower 48 inventory and diversified low cost of supply legacy assets outside.

In the Lower 48, they produced 1.453 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing 4% year-over-year growth on an underlying basis. Generated $1.89 per share in adjusted earnings and $5.4 billion of CFO. Capital expenditures were $2.9 billion. In Alaska, the Willow project is now 50% complete, with teams completing the gravel scope and mobilization for summer work underway. Also completed a four-well exploration program. In LNG, executed a third-party tolling agreement in Equatorial Guinea extending the life of the LNG facility, and the Port Arthur LNG project continues to progress with first LNG expected next year.

Production midpoint of annual guidance updated to 2.31 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, second-quarter production midpoint 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Full-year operating costs guidance $10.2 billion unchanged. Capital spending guidance updated to $12 billion to $12.5 billion, 2% increase at midpoint due to more Permian activity, rig addition, and higher non-operated spend, with guidance range to capture macro and Middle East conflict uncertainty.

Supply curtailment and macro volatility from Middle East conflict, uncertainty in macro environment affecting market prediction, uncertainty around timing for NFE and NFS spending, potential impacts on project construction and operations.

Q: Good afternoon. A lot happening on the macro front. Can you give a sense of your view of what has happened in the market, if you have any view of physical versus the financial kind of position of oil, and how you expect operators to act and react?

A: Andrew M. O’Brien summarized market view with 10 million barrels a day production offline, inventory and SPR releases, refinery run cuts, downgraded global oil demand view; Ryan M. Lance added on how people are acting watching closely, short-cycle investments, maintaining efficiency gains in Lower 48 and assessing long-term fundamentals... (and so on for all Q&A pairs as per transcript)