CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Q4 FY2025 earnings call

• Safety: Full year recordable incident rate was 0.26 incidents per 200,000 hours worked, lowest ever process safety events. But Yazoo City incident is a reminder of safety focus.
• Blue Point: Project has progressed well from FID in April, partner secured offtake and contract for difference awards, expect civil work in Q2 2026.
• Financials: 2025 net earnings attributable to common stockholders were ~$1.5 billion, Q4 2025 net earnings were $404 million. Completed $1 billion senior notes offering in Q4 2025. Capital expenditures in 2026 expected to total ~$1.3 billion, CF Industries portion ~$950 million.
• Decarbonization: Interest in low-carbon ammonia and products continues to grow, pilot project with POET for low-carbon ethanol advanced.

For the full year 2025, adjusted EBITDA was approximately $2.9 billion. Net cash from operations in 2025 was $2.75 billion, and free cash flow was approximately $1.8 billion. For the fourth quarter of 2025, net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $404 million, EBITDA was $731 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $821 million. The Yazoo City Complex in Mississippi experienced an incident in November, and is not expected to resume production until the fourth quarter of 2026 at the earliest, affecting ammonia production. The Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui has progressed well, with expected civil work in the second quarter of 2026. The company repurchased shares, completing a $3 billion program and starting a $2 billion program.

• Expect global nitrogen market to remain constructive in near term.
• Yazoo City Complex not expected to resume production until Q4 2026 at earliest, expect network to produce ~9.5 million tons of gross ammonia in 2026.
• Expect to continue generating substantial free cash flow and remain committed to capital allocation framework of investing in business and returning capital to shareholders.
• Capital expenditures in 2026 total ~$1.3 billion, CF Industries portion ~$950 million.

• Yazoo City Complex incident led to plant not resuming production until Q4 2026 at earliest, with long lead times for equipment fabrication and delivery.
• Uncertainties around CBAM and its impact on the business and Blue Point returns.
• Middle East geopolitical concerns looming over the nitrogen market, affecting production and supply.
• Potential disruptions in the global nitrogen market due to factors like natural gas availability in certain regions, plant issues in Canada and winter storms, and low water levels on rivers impacting product movement.

Q: About the pace of spending at the Blue Point project.

A: Overall expenditure for Blue Point is still forecasted at $3.7 billion, with better idea of costs and timing as project progresses.

Q: On CBAM, impact on business and Blue Point returns.

A: CBAM is in place, European customers show interest in low-carbon product. CBAM's alteration or removal would affect, but Blue Point analysis was without product premium.

Q: On Yazoo City, when plant starts, look and mix.

A: Only ammonium nitrate plant to rebuild, too early to judge details, intent to get plant up as soon as possible.

Q: Market drivers for EBITDA in 2026.

A: High demand in regions like India, Brazil, North America, limited supply, positive gas dynamics, and USDA corn acreage expectations.

Q: CBAM and premium for Blue Point.

A: Premiums in place, contracts for 2026, CBAM is set in motion, global interest in low-carbon products.

Q: Order book flexibility into 2026.

A: Pleased with order book, focused on execution, identifying product needs, communicating with customers and freight providers.

Q: Japan and Blue Point's other side.

A: Important point, many low-carbon projects fell off, but JERA, Mitsui, etc., still interested, and legacy agricultural growth and tight market dynamics.

Q: Middle East tensions impact on market.

A: Middle East is significant supplier of urea and ammonia, disruption would have pronounced impact on supply and pricing.

Q: Blue Point project timeline and milestones.

A: Timing of project still expected in 2029, milestones include Air permit, Army Corps permit, civil work starting, and contingency built in.

Q: Affordability issues in nitrogen.

A: Study farmer affordability, part of global value chain, aware of impact on return on costs.