Assured Guaranty Ltd. Q3 FY2025 earnings call

• Adjusted book value per share was $181.37 and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share was $123.10, both record highs at Q3 end. Year-to-date adjusted operating income per share was $6.77, up ~17% y-o-y.
• Third quarter PVP was strong: $91M, 44% more than Q3 2024 and 42% more than Q2 2025. YTD, U.S. public finance produced $152M, with strong municipal bond issuance and secondary market business. Non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance contributed $42M YTD.
• Investment portfolio performance enhanced by alternative investments; inception-to-date annualized IRR of alternatives was ~13% through September.
• Board authorized repurchase of an additional $100M of common shares, bringing current authorization to over $330M.
• Looking to expand into new sectors and diversify revenue sources for sustainable growth.

In the third quarter, PVP across the 3 insurance business lines was $91 million. For the first 9 months, total PVP was $194 million. U.S. public finance business produced $152 million (78.35% of total YTD PVP), Non-U.S. public finance contributed $19 million, and Global structured finance contributed $23 million. Third quarter PVP for U.S. public finance was $91 million, with $7.9 billion of par closed; Non-U.S. public finance had $5 million in Q3 and $19 million YTD; Global structured finance had $8 million in Q3 and $23 million YTD.

• Anticipates a successful fourth quarter with booked sizable transactions.
• Board authorized repurchase of an additional $100 million of common shares, current authorization over $330 million.
• Sees strategic opportunities to expand insurance businesses into new sectors and markets to diversify revenue.

• Brightline transportation exposure: Startup growing pains but comfortable with structure as it works through management of availability and route structure.
• Puerto Rico PREPA exposure: Legal defense and settlement aspects; 3 transactions reflecting full recovery or additional return based on legal rights and settlements.

Q: How are you thinking about ongoing allocation to higher-yielding sectors in investment portfolio in light of current macro trends?

A: Work with outside investment managers and internal group to optimize yield and maintain safe portfolio with liquidity.

Q: Talk about issues with Brightline transportation exposure and pressure on deals?

A: Brightline is a new startup with growing pains, but comfortable with structure as it's senior in capital stack and will work itself out.

Q: Place for AGO in current data center CapEx cycle?

A: Actively evaluating data center, look at opportunity every quarter and other new areas like liquid natural gas.

Q: Pipeline to grow written premium into 2026?

A: Great opportunities in all 3 financial guaranty lines; U.S. public finance secondary market, global structured finance core lending portfolios and regulatory capital, and international opportunities like data centers.

Q: Onus to get positive on Puerto Rico PREPA exposure and what events needed?

A: A deal and legal rights being upheld; 3 transactions reflecting recovery and additional return, with view on defending legal rights.