Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation Q4 FY2025 earnings call

• 2025 was a remarkable year with strong execution across the business, including 46% full year revenue growth in MRD and profitability ahead of expectations.
• Key catalysts in MRD included accelerated EMR integrations, launch of NovaSeq X+, Medicare coverage for recurrence monitoring in MCL, and updates in NCCN guidelines.
• In Immune Medicine, scaled TCR antigen data (over 5 million paired TCRs), 2 data partnerships with Pfizer, and a preclinical data package for a lead antibody program in ankylosing spondylitis with a strategic decision to reallocate capital to data generation and AI modeling.
• Disciplined capital allocation with Immune Medicine cash burn kept to ~$30 million in 2025.

MRD Business

• Full year revenue grew 46% year-over-year. In Q4 2025, clonoSEQ clinical testing revenue grew 59% year-over-year, with volumes reaching 30,038 tests, up 43% year-over-year and 11% sequentially. Blood-based testing accounted for 47% of clonoSEQ tests in Q4 2025. ASP in the U.S. ended 2025 at $1,307 per test, up 17% year-over-year, and exited Q4 2025 at about $1,350 per test. MRD pharma business had 20% year-over-year revenue growth, including $19.5 million in regulatory milestone revenue, with multi myeloma being the largest driver, accounting for roughly 70% of sequencing revenue and ~60% of backlog.

• Immune Medicine Business

• Scaled TCR antigen data and modeling capabilities, with 2 data partnerships with Pfizer. Cash burn for Immune Medicine in 2025 was around $30 million. Focus in 2026 is on advancing TCR antigen data sets and AI/ML modeling with a target net cash burn of $15 million to $20 million.

• Full year MRD revenue expected between $255 million and $265 million, including $8 million to $9 million in milestone revenue, implying 22% Y/Y growth (30% ex-milestones).
• MRD revenue expected ~45% weighted to first half and 55% to second half of 2026.
• Operating expenses expected $350 million to $360 million, down 6% Y/Y at midpoint.
• Expect positive adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow for the whole company by end of 2026.

• Weather-related impacts on sample timing and volume in Q1.
• Competition in the MRD space, including a competitor's flow cytometer product with potentially lower sensitivity.
• Execution risk on key payer contracts affecting ASP growth.

Q: Congrats on strong volume quarter in Q4. Discuss clonoSEQ volume trend, seasonality, and weather-related issues in Q1.

A: Susan Bobulsky notes Q4 volume was a testament to long-term growth opportunity. Seasonality exists, Q1 typically strong but lighter due to holidays/weather. Weather-related impacts on sample arrival but samples flowing back in, strong start to Q1.

Q: How to think about DLBCL penetration and incoming competition?

A: Susan Bobulsky states DLBCL has 3% patient opportunity penetration. Focus on data generation with enhanced ctDNA assay, advancing guidelines, broadening commercial payer coverage, deepening pharma penetration. Increased noise in space could expand market.

Q: On EBITDA guide for 2026, exit on full year?

A: Kyle Piskel says EBITDA positive exit for full year, MRD already positive adjusted EBITDA, initiatives give confidence for whole company.

Q: Gross margins and ASPs for 2026?

A: Chad Robins mentions transition to NovaSeq X+ gives uplift, ASP growth from payer contract renegotiations and new agreements. Goal to get to 75% gross margin, ASP target $1,400 in 2026.

Q: Upside to ClonoSEQ volume guide?

A: Susan Bobulsky points to EMR integration optimization, serial testing pull-through, blood and community volume growth as upside potential.

Q: Immune Medicine monetization and data access?

A: Sharon Benzeno mentions two Pfizer data licensing deals, multiple monetization opportunities from unique data set, early days but potential for more deals as year progresses.