[ZION] Zions Bancorporation Thesis 2026: Western US Regional Bank Drives Commercial Lending Capital Return

Key Takeaways

• ZION FY2025 revenue ~$3.20-3.40B (+5-8% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$5.40-5.65 reflecting continued post-2024 $3.20-3.40B aggregate Net Interest Income + Noninterest Income ($87-90B aggregate assets; selected primary 11-state Western + Mountain US footprint Commercial + Commercial Real Estate + Residential Mortgage lending franchise + selected various aggregate Wealth Management + Capital Markets + Treasury Management + Trust + Mortgage fee income) under continued Chairman + CEO Harris Simmons since 1990 (~35-year tenure as Zions CEO; selected one of the longest US bank CEO tenures).
• Western US Commercial Lending Franchise (~$58-60B aggregate loans): ~$58-60B aggregate loans (~Commercial + Commercial Real Estate + Residential Mortgage + Consumer); selected primary 11-state Western + Mountain US footprint (Utah + California + Texas + Colorado + Arizona + Nevada + Oregon + Idaho + Washington + New Mexico + Wyoming) + selected various aggregate ~430+ aggregate banking offices + selected various aggregate ~70-72% aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio + selected various aggregate ~3.10-3.30% aggregate Net Interest Margin (NIM) + selected various aggregate ~$78-82B aggregate deposits.
• Wealth Management + Capital Markets Pipeline + Fee Income: selected continued post-2024 selected various aggregate Wealth Management + Capital Markets + Treasury Management + Trust + Mortgage Banking aggregate ~$700-750M aggregate annual fee income (~22%+ aggregate revenue mix); selected various aggregate ~$23-25B aggregate Wealth Management Assets Under Management (AUM) + selected various aggregate ~$80-90M aggregate Capital Markets revenue + selected various aggregate ~$200-220M aggregate Treasury Management revenue.
• Capital position + balance sheet: ~$1.76 aggregate annual dividend (~32%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~3.0-3.5% aggregate dividend yield); ~$200-300M aggregate FY2025 buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$460-560M FY2025; CET1 ~10.7-11.2%; net leverage moderate; investment-grade Baa2/BBB+ credit rating; ~150-155M diluted shares.
• FY2026 thesis catalysts: Western US Commercial Lending franchise (~$58-60B loans + 3.10-3.30% NIM + 11-state Western + Mountain US footprint) + Wealth Management + Capital Markets fee income pipeline ($700-750M fee income + ~$23-25B AUM) + selected ~$87-90B aggregate assets + selected ~430+ aggregate banking offices.

Company Background

Zions Bancorporation, National Association (NASDAQ: ZION) is one of the largest US Western + Mountain specialty Regional Bank Holding Companies, founded 1873 as Zion's Savings Bank & Trust Company by Brigham Young in Salt Lake City Utah (~152-year heritage; selected pioneer Utah banking franchise). Selected post-1873 founding + selected post-1955 Zions First National Bank reorganization + selected post-1966 Zions Bancorporation parent formation + selected post-1980s NASDAQ listing; selected post-1990 Harris Simmons CEO appointment (succeeded father Roy Simmons retirement); selected post-2018 Zions National Association charter consolidation (collapsed 7 separate state-chartered banks into 1 national charter); HQ Salt Lake City Utah; ~9,500-10,000 employees globally; selected ~430+ aggregate banking offices across 11-state Western + Mountain US footprint (Utah + California + Texas + Colorado + Arizona + Nevada + Oregon + Idaho + Washington + New Mexico + Wyoming).

ZION operates 1 primary business: Regional Bank Holding Company ~100% revenue. Net Interest Income revenue 78%+ revenue mix ($2.50-2.65B; selected primary 11-state Western + Mountain US Commercial + Commercial Real Estate + Residential Mortgage lending franchise). Noninterest Income revenue 22% revenue mix ($700-750M; selected primary Wealth Management + Capital Markets + Treasury Management + Trust + Mortgage Banking + Service Charges fee aggregate). Geographic mix: Utah ~30%+ + California + Texas + Colorado + Arizona + Nevada + Oregon + Idaho + Washington + New Mexico + Wyoming.

Capital position: ~$1.76 aggregate annual dividend (~32%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~3.0-3.5% aggregate dividend yield); ~$200-300M aggregate FY2025 buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$460-560M FY2025; CET1 ~10.7-11.2%; net leverage moderate; investment-grade Baa2/BBB+ credit rating; ~150-155M diluted shares.

Western US Commercial Lending Franchise (~$58-60B Loans)

The Western US Commercial Lending Franchise is ZION's foundation thesis: ~$58-60B aggregate loans (~Commercial + Commercial Real Estate + Residential Mortgage + Consumer) + selected primary 11-state Western + Mountain US footprint (Utah + California + Texas + Colorado + Arizona + Nevada + Oregon + Idaho + Washington + New Mexico + Wyoming) + selected various aggregate ~430+ aggregate banking offices + selected various aggregate ~70-72% aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio + selected various aggregate ~3.10-3.30% aggregate Net Interest Margin (NIM) + selected various aggregate ~$78-82B aggregate deposits. Selected primary ZION platform: Utah ~30%+ aggregate franchise + selected primary California + Texas + Colorado + Arizona aggregate Western + Mountain US footprint.

FY2025 Commercial Lending dynamics ($58-60B aggregate loans): selected continued post-2024 ~3.10-3.30% aggregate NIM + ~$58-60B aggregate loans + selected various aggregate ~$78-82B aggregate deposits + selected various aggregate ~70-72% aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio + selected various aggregate ~$2.50-2.65B aggregate Net Interest Income. Selected post-2024 ~$0.30-0.50 incremental annual EPS contribution as Western US Commercial Lending franchise drives incremental Net Interest Income.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Western US Commercial Lending franchise + ~$0.30-0.50 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued Harris Simmons leadership (~35-year tenure; one of the longest US bank CEO tenures). Selected aggregate ~$60-62B aggregate loans + selected various ~3.10-3.30% aggregate NIM + selected various aggregate ~$80-84B aggregate deposits + selected various aggregate ~$2.55-2.75B aggregate Net Interest Income. Risks: First Republic + Silicon Valley Bank legacy + Western Alliance (WAL) + East West Bancorp (EWBC) + Bank of Hawaii (BOH) + Comerica (CMA) + Cullen/Frost (CFR) + KeyCorp (KEY) + selected various aggregate Western + Mountain US Regional Bank competitive displacement + selected various aggregate Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations.

Wealth Management + Capital Markets Pipeline + Fee Income

The Wealth Management + Capital Markets pipeline + Fee Income is ZION's primary growth thesis: selected continued post-2024 selected various aggregate Wealth Management + Capital Markets + Treasury Management + Trust + Mortgage Banking aggregate ~$700-750M aggregate annual fee income (~22%+ aggregate revenue mix) + selected various aggregate ~$23-25B aggregate Wealth Management Assets Under Management (AUM) + selected various aggregate ~$80-90M aggregate Capital Markets revenue + selected various aggregate ~$200-220M aggregate Treasury Management revenue.

FY2025 Wealth Management + Capital Markets dynamics: selected primary post-2024 ~$700-750M aggregate annual fee income + selected various aggregate ~$23-25B aggregate Wealth Management AUM + selected various aggregate ~$80-90M aggregate Capital Markets revenue + selected various aggregate ~$200-220M aggregate Treasury Management revenue + selected various aggregate ~$60-80M aggregate Trust + Mortgage Banking + Service Charges aggregate. Selected post-2024 ~$0.15-0.25 incremental annual EPS contribution as Wealth Management + Capital Markets pipeline drives incremental fee income.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Wealth Management + Capital Markets pipeline + ~$0.15-0.25 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~$735-790M aggregate annual fee income + selected various aggregate ~$25-27B aggregate Wealth Management AUM + selected various aggregate ~$85-100M aggregate Capital Markets revenue + selected various aggregate ~$210-235M aggregate Treasury Management revenue. Risks: Western Alliance + East West Bancorp + Bank of Hawaii + Comerica + Cullen/Frost + KeyCorp + selected various aggregate Wealth Management + Capital Markets competitive displacement + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$1.76 aggregate annual dividend (~32%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~3.0-3.5% aggregate dividend yield) + ~$200-300M aggregate FY2025 buybacks + aggregate capital return ~$460-560M FY2025 + CET1 ~10.7-11.2% + net leverage moderate + investment-grade Baa2/BBB+ credit rating + ~150-155M diluted shares.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~$460-600M aggregate annual capital return + selected continued ~3.0-3.5% aggregate dividend yield + selected continued ~$1.76-1.85 aggregate annual dividend + selected continued CET1 ~10.7-11.2% + selected various aggregate ~$200-300M aggregate annual buybacks. Selected ~32%+ aggregate payout ratio + selected CET1 ~10.7-11.2% support continued capital return + Western US Commercial Lending expansion + Wealth Management + Capital Markets capacity.

Key Core Metrics

• FY2025 revenue ~$3.20-3.40B (+5-8% YoY) vs $3.04B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$5.40-5.65
• 1 segment: Regional Bank Holding Company ~100% (Net Interest Income ~78%+ + Noninterest Income ~22%)
• Geographic mix: Utah ~30%+ + California + Texas + Colorado + Arizona + Nevada + Oregon + Idaho + Washington + New Mexico + Wyoming
• ~$87-90B aggregate assets; ~430+ aggregate banking offices
• Loans: ~$58-60B aggregate; deposits: ~$78-82B aggregate
• Loan-to-deposit ratio: ~70-72%; NIM: ~3.10-3.30%
• Wealth Management AUM: ~$23-25B; Capital Markets revenue: ~$80-90M; Treasury Management: ~$200-220M
• Fee income: ~$700-750M aggregate annual (~22%+ revenue mix)
• Capital: CET1 ~10.7-11.2%; ~150-155M diluted shares
• Dividend ~$1.76 annual (~32%+ payout; ~3.0-3.5% yield)
• ~$200-300M aggregate FY2025 buybacks; total capital return ~$460-560M FY2025
• Investment-grade Baa2/BBB+ credit rating

Market Evaluation

ZION FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$50-60 share price + ~150-155M diluted shares = ~$8-9B market cap; ~$1.76 aggregate annual dividend + ~3.0-3.5% aggregate dividend yield. Selected primary ZION peers: Western Alliance (WAL, ~$8-10B Mcap) + East West Bancorp (EWBC, ~$13-16B) + Bank of Hawaii (BOH, ~$2-3B) + Comerica (CMA, ~$8-10B) + Cullen/Frost (CFR, ~$8-9B) + KeyCorp (KEY, ~$15-18B) + Wintrust Financial (WTFC, ~$8-9B) + selected various aggregate Western + Mountain + Mid-South US Regional Bank Holding Companies. Selected ZION ~9-10x P/E + selected ~1.1-1.2x P/Tangible Book + selected ~3.0-3.5% dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$3.30-3.55B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected ~$1.76-1.85 aggregate annual dividend + selected ~$460-600M aggregate FY2026 capital return + selected aggregate Western US Commercial Lending + Wealth Management pipeline. FY2026 base case: ~$3.30-3.55B aggregate revenue + ~$5.65-6.00 adj. EPS + ~$460-600M aggregate capital return. Bull case: Western US Commercial Lending growth + Wealth Management AUM expansion + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle + Capital Markets recovery drives ~$3.45-3.70B aggregate revenue + ~$5.90-6.30 EPS. Bear case: First Republic + Silicon Valley Bank legacy contagion + Western Alliance + East West Bancorp + Bank of Hawaii + Comerica + Cullen/Frost + KeyCorp competitive intensification + Federal Reserve interest rate cuts + Commercial Real Estate cycle considerations + California + Texas Commercial Real Estate concentration considerations drives ~$3.20-3.40B revenue + ~$5.20-5.55 EPS. The thesis depends on Western US Commercial Lending franchise + Wealth Management + Capital Markets fee income pipeline + ~$87-90B assets.