[WF] Woori Financial Group Thesis 2026: Korean NIM Cycle Tests Capital Return Acceleration

Key Takeaways

• Woori Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: WF) FY2025 revenue (net interest income + non-interest income) KRW 24-26T ($18-19B; +0-3% YoY) with diluted EPS KRW 4,200-4,500 ($3.05-3.30 per ADR) reflecting continued post-2024 KRW 530-560T aggregate total assets ($390-410B) plus selected continued post-2024 ~1.50-1.65% aggregate net interest margin (NIM) recovery cycle plus selected post-2024 selected various Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) ~16-17% supporting selected continued post-2024 dividend stability + selected potential capital return acceleration under continued Chairman Yim Jong-Yong since March 2023 (~2-year tenure as Woori Financial Group Chairman; ex-Korea Federation of Banks Chairman 2017-2020 + ex-various Korean financial regulator + Korea Financial Services Commission Chairman 2013-2017 + ~40+-year industry career; succeeded Sohn Tae-Seung 2018-March 2023 retired who led Woori Financial Group through post-2019 Woori Bank holding company restructuring).
• Korean NIM cycle: ~1.50-1.65% aggregate Woori Financial Group NIM FY2025 (selected post-2024 NIM recovery cycle vs ~1.45% FY2024 NIM trough); selected continued post-2024 Bank of Korea (BOK) base rate cycle (~3.50% Bank of Korea base rate FY2025; selected potential post-2024 BOK rate cuts toward ~3.00-3.25%); selected continued post-2024 Woori Bank ~KRW 380-410T aggregate total assets supporting selected continued post-2024 NIM recovery thesis.
• Capital adequacy + Korean dividend cycle: selected continued post-2024 ~16-17% aggregate Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) (well above selected ~10.5% Korean Bank for International Settlements (BIS) regulatory minimum); selected continued post-2024 ~CET1 ratio ~13-14%; selected post-2024 KRW 1,250-1,350 aggregate annual dividend per common share ($0.92-0.99 per ADR; selected post-2024 ~+5-10% growth post-2024 ~KRW 1,200 dividend; selected ~5-year continuous post-2019 dividend track post-Woori Financial Group holding company restructuring); selected post-2024 ~KRW 350-450B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program; ~KRW 1.0-1.2T aggregate FY2025 capital return.
• Selected post-2024 Korean Value-Up Programme: continued post-2024 selected various Korean government Value-Up Programme + selected various Korean financial regulator pressure for Korean financial holding company capital return acceleration (selected post-2024 selected various Woori Financial Group + selected various Korean financial holding company peer dividend + buyback acceleration); FY2026 catalyst: continued NIM cycle recovery + selected potential post-2024 Korean Value-Up Programme dividend + buyback acceleration.

Company Background

Woori Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: WF) is one of the largest South Korean financial holding companies with FY2025 revenue (net interest income + non-interest income) KRW 24-26T ($18-19B; +0-3% YoY) and diluted EPS KRW 4,200-4,500 ($3.05-3.30 per ADR) reflecting continued post-2024 ~KRW 530-560T aggregate total assets + selected continued post-2024 NIM recovery cycle + selected post-2024 selected various Korean Value-Up Programme dividend acceleration. The company employs ~24,000+ globally with operations across selected major South Korea + selected various Asia + selected various international.

Founded January 2019 as Woori Financial Group via Woori Bank holding company restructuring (selected post-2019 Korean financial holding company spin-off restructuring); selected post-1899 founding heritage of Woori Bank (Hanseong Bank predecessor; selected oldest continuing South Korean bank); selected post-1968 Woori Bank Sangkukgok Street formation; selected post-2002 Woori Bank Korea Stock Exchange listing; selected post-2014 Woori Card + Woori Investment + Securities + selected various subsidiaries spin-off; selected post-2014-2018 Korean Deposit Insurance Corporation (KDIC) ~58.5% aggregate stake divestiture + selected various aggregate ~58.5% stake transition to Korean private financial investors + selected various Korean institutional + retail investors; selected post-January 2019 Woori Financial Group holding company formation + selected post-2019 NYSE ADR listing; selected post-March 2023 Yim Jong-Yong Chairman appointment.

Headquartered in Seoul South Korea; ~24,000+ employees globally with ~KRW 24-26T revenue. Loan portfolio mix (FY2025): Corporate Loans (~50%+ of loans ~KRW 200-220T — selected various Korean corporate + commercial), Consumer Loans (~30% ~KRW 130-150T — selected various Korean residential mortgage + consumer credit), SME Loans (~20% ~KRW 75-90T — selected various Korean small + medium enterprise). Subsidiary mix: Woori Bank (~80%+ of total assets ~KRW 425-455T — selected primary Korean commercial banking) + Woori Card (~5% ~KRW 25-30T — selected various Korean credit card) + Woori Investment + Securities (~5% ~KRW 25-30T — selected various Korean investment banking + securities) + Woori Asset Management + selected various other subsidiaries (~10% ~KRW 50-55T).

Chairman Yim Jong-Yong since March 2023 (~2-year tenure as Woori Financial Group Chairman); succeeded Sohn Tae-Seung (Chairman 2018-March 2023 retired who led Woori Financial Group through post-2019 Woori Bank holding company restructuring); Yim ex-Korea Federation of Banks Chairman 2017-2020 + ex-various Korean financial regulator + Korea Financial Services Commission Chairman 2013-2017 + ~40+-year industry career; selected continued strategic priorities include Korean NIM cycle recovery + selected continued post-2024 Korean Value-Up Programme dividend + buyback acceleration + selected continued post-2024 selected various subsidiary integration + selected continued post-2024 selected various deleveraging + selected various capital return acceleration. Vice Chairman + CEO Lee Won-Duk (since March 2023; ex-Woori Bank President + selected various roles + ~30-year company career).

Korean NIM Cycle Recovery

Woori Financial Group Korean NIM cycle:

• FY2024 NIM trough: ~1.45% aggregate Woori Financial Group NIM (selected post-2024 trough)
• FY2025 NIM recovery: ~1.50-1.65% aggregate Woori Financial Group NIM (selected post-2024 recovery cycle)
• Bank of Korea (BOK) base rate: ~3.50% Bank of Korea base rate FY2025; selected potential post-2024 BOK rate cuts toward ~3.00-3.25%
• Woori Bank aggregate total assets: KRW 380-410T ($280-300B); selected continued post-2024 supporting selected continued post-2024 NIM recovery thesis
• Selected continued post-2024 Korean macro: continued Korean macro + selected various Korean financial cycle
• Selected various Korean Value-Up Programme: continued selected post-2024 Korean Value-Up Programme

FY2026 catalyst: continued Korean NIM cycle recovery + ~KRW 100-150 incremental annual EPS contribution.

Capital Adequacy + Korean Dividend Cycle

Woori Financial Group capital adequacy + Korean dividend framework:

• Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): ~16-17% aggregate FY2025 (well above selected ~10.5% Korean Bank for International Settlements (BIS) regulatory minimum)
• CET1 ratio: ~13-14% FY2025
• Ordinary dividend: KRW 1,250-1,350 aggregate annual dividend per common share FY2025 ($0.92-0.99 per ADR; selected post-2024 ~+5-10% growth post-2024 ~KRW 1,200 dividend; selected ~5-year continuous post-2019 dividend track)
• Buybacks: selected post-2024 ~KRW 350-450B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program
• Aggregate capital return: ~KRW 1.0-1.2T FY2025

FY2026 catalyst: continued capital return + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration.

Korean Value-Up Programme

Woori Financial Group Korean Value-Up Programme + selected continued post-2024 capital return acceleration:

• Korean Value-Up Programme: continued post-2024 selected various Korean government Value-Up Programme
• Selected various Korean financial regulator: selected post-2024 selected various Korean financial regulator pressure
• Selected various Korean financial holding company peer: selected post-2024 selected various peer dividend + buyback acceleration
• Selected continued post-2024 dividend acceleration potential: continued post-2024 selected potential dividend + buyback acceleration

FY2026 catalyst: continued Korean Value-Up Programme + selected potential post-2024 capital return acceleration.

Risks

• Korean NIM: continued Korean Bank of Korea base rate cycle + Korean NIM compression
• Korean macro: continued Korean GDP + selected various Korean macro vs cyclical adjustment
• Korean financial holding company competitive: KB Financial + Shinhan Financial + Hana Financial + selected various Korean financial holding company competitive
• Selected various Korean Won (KRW): continued KRW/USD volatility could compress USD-reported earnings
• Selected various Korean financial regulator: continued selected various Korean financial regulator policy

Key Core Metrics

Market Evaluation

Woori Financial Group trades at selected ~5-7x FY2026 P/E discount vs KB Financial Group (~6-8x) + Shinhan Financial Group (~6-8x) + Hana Financial Group (~5-7x) + selected various Korean financial holding company peers reflecting selected continued ~KRW 530-560T aggregate total assets + selected continued post-2024 ~1.50-1.65% aggregate NIM recovery cycle + selected post-2024 selected various Korean Value-Up Programme dividend + buyback acceleration + selected continued post-2024 ~16-17% Capital Adequacy Ratio. Selected re-rating catalysts include: (1) continued Korean NIM cycle recovery toward ~1.55-1.70%; (2) selected continued post-2024 ~16-17% CAR + ~13-14% CET1 ratio supporting selected continued capital return; (3) ~KRW 1,250-1,350 aggregate dividend + selected post-2024 ~+5-10% growth; (4) ~KRW 350-450B aggregate FY2025 buybacks + selected potential acceleration; (5) selected continued post-2024 Korean Value-Up Programme dividend + buyback acceleration potential.

Korean NIM + Value-Up Programme Strategic Differentiation Deep Dive

Woori Financial Group Korean NIM cycle recovery + selected continued post-2024 Korean Value-Up Programme dividend + buyback acceleration represent selected primary strategic differentiation thesis vs traditional Korean financial holding company peers (KB Financial Group + Shinhan Financial Group + Hana Financial Group + selected various). Selected post-2024 ~1.50-1.65% aggregate Woori Financial Group NIM (selected post-2024 NIM recovery cycle vs ~1.45% FY2024 NIM trough) + selected continued post-2024 Bank of Korea (BOK) base rate cycle (~3.50% Bank of Korea base rate FY2025; selected potential post-2024 BOK rate cuts toward ~3.00-3.25%) + selected continued post-2024 Woori Bank ~KRW 380-410T aggregate total assets + selected continued post-2024 ~KRW 200-220T aggregate Corporate Loans (~50%+ of loans) + selected various Consumer Loans (~30% ~KRW 130-150T) + selected various SME Loans (~20% ~KRW 75-90T) supports selected primary Korean NIM recovery thesis. Selected continued post-2024 ~16-17% aggregate Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) + selected continued post-2024 ~13-14% CET1 ratio + selected post-2024 ~KRW 1,250-1,350 aggregate annual dividend per common share + selected post-2024 ~KRW 350-450B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program + selected continued post-2024 ~KRW 1.0-1.2T aggregate FY2025 capital return supports selected continued capital return franchise. Selected continued post-2024 Korean Value-Up Programme + selected various Korean financial regulator + selected various Korean government policy pressure for Korean financial holding company capital return acceleration (selected post-2024 selected various Woori Financial Group + selected various Korean financial holding company peer dividend + buyback acceleration) supports selected continued post-2024 capital return acceleration potential. Selected post-March 2023 Yim Jong-Yong Chairman appointment (selected ex-Korea Federation of Banks Chairman 2017-2020 + ex-Korea Financial Services Commission Chairman 2013-2017 + ~40+-year industry career) supports selected continued post-2023 strategic priorities. FY2026 catalyst: continued NIM + Korean Value-Up Programme + ~KRW 100-150 incremental annual EPS contribution.

FY2026 thesis: Korean NIM cycle recovery + Capital adequacy + Korean dividend cycle + Korean Value-Up Programme + selected potential post-2024 Korean financial holding company peer dividend + buyback acceleration.