[VOYA] Voya Financial Thesis 2026: Workplace Retirement Drives Investment Management Health Solutions Capital Return

Key Takeaways

• VOYA FY2025 revenue ~$7.30-7.85B (+5-10% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$8.85-9.65 reflecting continued ~$540-580B aggregate AUM/AUA + ~$8.40-9.05B aggregate adj. operating earnings exposure across Workplace Solutions + Investment Management + Health Solutions under continued President + CEO Heather Lavallee since January 2023 (~3-year tenure as Voya Financial CEO; selected post-January 2023 succession from Voya Workplace Solutions President + Voya Employee Benefits leadership; selected primary architect of post-2023 strategic reset toward fee-based business model + Workplace + Investment Management + Health Solutions diversified positioning).
• Workplace Solutions Retirement + Benefits Pipeline (~$3.50-3.85B Revenue): ~$3.50-3.85B aggregate Workplace Solutions revenue (~47-49% revenue mix); selected primary ~$580B+ aggregate Defined Contribution + 401(k) + 403(b) + 457 + 401(a) record-kept assets (selected primary Voya as #5-6 US Defined Contribution recordkeeper by assets); selected various aggregate ~$2.85-3.05B aggregate Voya Retirement segment revenue + selected various aggregate ~$0.65-0.80B aggregate Voya Employee Benefits revenue (selected primary Stop Loss + Group Life + Group Disability + Voluntary Benefits + selected various aggregate Health Account Solutions) + selected various aggregate ~5.5-6.0M aggregate Workplace participants + ~62,000 aggregate plan sponsors.
• Investment Management + Health Solutions Pipeline (~$3.65-3.95B Revenue): ~$2.00-2.20B aggregate Investment Management revenue + ~$1.65-1.75B aggregate Health Solutions revenue (aggregate ~48-51% revenue mix); selected primary ~$345-365B aggregate Investment Management AUM (selected primary Public Fixed Income + Private Fixed Income + selected various aggregate Equity + Multi-Asset Solutions + selected various aggregate Alternatives) + selected various aggregate post-2022 Allianz Global Investors US strategic partnership (selected primary ~$120B+ aggregate AGI US sub-advised + selected various aggregate alternatives + private credit expansion) + selected primary Health Solutions Stop Loss + Group Life + Group Disability + Voluntary Benefits + selected various aggregate post-July 2024 ~$370M+ aggregate OneAmerica Financial Partners retirement business acquisition.
• Capital position + balance sheet: ~$1.60 aggregate annual dividend (~18-20% aggregate payout ratio; ~1.9-2.2% aggregate dividend yield; selected ~5+ year aggregate dividend increase track record since post-2019 spin-off completion); ~$500-800M aggregate FY2025 buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$650-960M FY2025; aggregate excess capital ~$200-400M; RBC ratio ~395-415%; investment-grade A3/A- credit rating (S&P) / Baa1 (Moody's) at holding; ~95-97M diluted shares.
• FY2026 thesis catalysts: Workplace Solutions Retirement + Benefits pipeline (~$3.50-3.85B + $580B+ Defined Contribution record-kept assets) + Investment Management + Health Solutions pipeline ($3.65-3.95B + ~$345-365B Investment Management AUM + post-2022 Allianz Global Investors US strategic partnership + post-July 2024 OneAmerica Financial Partners acquisition) + ~$650-960M aggregate FY2025 capital return + ~1.9-2.2% dividend yield + ~5+ year dividend increase track record.

Company Background

Voya Financial, Inc. (NYSE: VOYA) is a US Financials Workplace Solutions + Investment Management + Health Solutions holding company, founded May 2013 as Voya Financial spin-off from ING Group (selected primary post-2013 IPO under ING US name; selected primary post-2014 rebranding to Voya Financial; selected post-2014-2017 ING Group complete divestiture of remaining ~75% stake; selected primary ~12-year operating history as standalone US Financials platform). Selected post-2018 divestiture of Closed Block Variable Annuity business; selected post-2019 strategic reset toward capital-light fee-based business model; selected post-2022 Allianz Global Investors US strategic partnership (selected primary ~$120B+ aggregate AGI US sub-advised AUM); selected post-January 2023 Heather Lavallee CEO appointment; selected post-July 2024 ~$370M+ aggregate OneAmerica Financial Partners retirement business acquisition; HQ New York; ~6,500-7,000 employees.

VOYA operates 3 primary segments: Workplace Solutions (Voya Retirement + Voya Employee Benefits) 47-49% revenue ($3.50-3.85B), Investment Management 27-29% revenue ($2.00-2.20B), Health Solutions 21-23% revenue ($1.65-1.75B). Workplace Solutions: ~$580B+ aggregate Defined Contribution record-kept assets + ~5.5-6.0M aggregate Workplace participants + ~62,000 aggregate plan sponsors. Investment Management: ~$345-365B aggregate AUM. Health Solutions: Stop Loss + Group Life + Group Disability + Voluntary Benefits + selected various aggregate Health Account Solutions.

Capital position: ~$1.60 aggregate annual dividend (~18-20% aggregate payout ratio; ~1.9-2.2% aggregate dividend yield; selected ~5+ year aggregate dividend increase track record); ~$500-800M aggregate FY2025 buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$650-960M FY2025; aggregate excess capital ~$200-400M; RBC ratio ~395-415%; investment-grade A3/A- credit rating; ~95-97M diluted shares.

Workplace Solutions Retirement + Benefits Pipeline (~$3.50-3.85B Revenue)

The Workplace Solutions Retirement + Benefits pipeline is VOYA's foundation thesis: ~$3.50-3.85B aggregate Workplace Solutions revenue (~47-49% revenue mix); selected primary ~$580B+ aggregate Defined Contribution + 401(k) + 403(b) + 457 + 401(a) record-kept assets (selected primary Voya as #5-6 US Defined Contribution recordkeeper by assets); selected various aggregate ~$2.85-3.05B aggregate Voya Retirement segment revenue + selected various aggregate ~$0.65-0.80B aggregate Voya Employee Benefits revenue (selected primary Stop Loss + Group Life + Group Disability + Voluntary Benefits + selected various aggregate Health Account Solutions) + selected various aggregate ~5.5-6.0M aggregate Workplace participants + ~62,000 aggregate plan sponsors.

FY2025 Workplace Solutions dynamics ($3.50-3.85B aggregate revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~+5-8% aggregate Workplace Solutions revenue growth (selected primary Defined Contribution record-kept assets appreciation + selected various aggregate post-July 2024 OneAmerica Financial Partners retirement business acquisition integration + selected various aggregate net new plan sales) + ~$580B+ aggregate Defined Contribution record-kept assets + selected various aggregate ~5.5-6.0M aggregate Workplace participants + selected various aggregate ~62,000 aggregate plan sponsors + selected various aggregate Voya Employee Benefits Stop Loss + Group Life + Group Disability cross-sell. Selected post-2024 ~$4.00-4.40 incremental annual EPS contribution as Workplace Solutions Retirement + Benefits pipeline drives incremental fee-based earnings.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Workplace Solutions Retirement + Benefits pipeline + ~$4.00-4.40 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued Heather Lavallee leadership (~3-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$3.70-4.05B aggregate Workplace Solutions revenue + selected various ~+5-7% aggregate growth + selected various aggregate ~$615-650B aggregate Defined Contribution record-kept assets + selected various aggregate ~5.8-6.3M aggregate Workplace participants + selected various aggregate post-July 2024 OneAmerica Financial Partners integration revenue synergies. Risks: Fidelity Investments (private; #1 US Defined Contribution recordkeeper) + Empower Retirement (Great-West Lifeco subsidiary; #2 share post-2024 Prudential retirement acquisition completion) + Vanguard (private; #3-4 share) + TIAA (private; #4-5 share + 403(b) leader) + Principal Financial Group (PFG, ~$18-22B Mcap; Workplace Retirement + Investment Management) + Lincoln Financial (LNC, ~$5-7B; Workplace Retirement + Insurance) + Ameriprise Financial (AMP, ~$45-55B; Wealth + Investment Management) + selected various aggregate Defined Contribution recordkeeping competitive displacement + selected various aggregate fee compression considerations + selected various aggregate net new plan sales considerations.

Investment Management + Health Solutions Pipeline (~$3.65-3.95B Revenue)

The Investment Management + Health Solutions pipeline is VOYA's primary growth thesis: ~$2.00-2.20B aggregate Investment Management revenue + ~$1.65-1.75B aggregate Health Solutions revenue (aggregate ~48-51% revenue mix); selected primary ~$345-365B aggregate Investment Management AUM (selected primary Public Fixed Income + Private Fixed Income + selected various aggregate Equity + Multi-Asset Solutions + selected various aggregate Alternatives) + selected various aggregate post-2022 Allianz Global Investors US strategic partnership (selected primary ~$120B+ aggregate AGI US sub-advised + selected various aggregate alternatives + private credit expansion) + selected primary Health Solutions Stop Loss + Group Life + Group Disability + Voluntary Benefits + selected various aggregate post-July 2024 ~$370M+ aggregate OneAmerica Financial Partners retirement business acquisition.

FY2025 Investment Management + Health Solutions dynamics: selected primary ~$345-365B aggregate Investment Management AUM + selected various aggregate ~$120B+ aggregate Allianz Global Investors US sub-advised AUM + selected various aggregate Public Fixed Income + Private Fixed Income + Equity + Multi-Asset Solutions + Alternatives + selected various aggregate ~$1.65-1.75B aggregate Health Solutions Stop Loss + Group Life + Group Disability + Voluntary Benefits + selected various aggregate Health Account Solutions. Selected post-2024 ~$3.85-4.25 incremental annual EPS contribution as Investment Management + Health Solutions pipeline drives incremental fee + underwriting earnings.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Investment Management + Health Solutions pipeline + ~$3.85-4.25 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~$3.85-4.15B aggregate combined Investment Management + Health Solutions revenue + selected various aggregate ~$365-385B aggregate Investment Management AUM + selected various aggregate post-2022 Allianz Global Investors US strategic partnership scale + selected various aggregate Private Fixed Income + Alternatives + private credit AUM growth + selected various aggregate Health Solutions Stop Loss + Group Life + Group Disability + Voluntary Benefits net new business + selected various aggregate post-July 2024 OneAmerica Financial Partners integration cost synergies. Risks: BlackRock (BLK, ~$130-150B Mcap; Investment Management) + State Street (STT, ~$25-30B; Investment Management + custody) + Northern Trust (NTRS, ~$20-25B; Investment Management + Wealth) + Invesco (IVZ, ~$8-10B; Investment Management) + Franklin Resources (BEN, ~$10-13B; Investment Management) + Janus Henderson (JHG, ~$5-7B; Investment Management) + Allianz Global Investors (private; partnership counterparty considerations) + Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B; Stop Loss + reinsurance considerations) + Unum Group (UNM, ~$8-10B; Group Disability + Life) + Sun Life Financial (SLF, ~$30-35B; Group Disability + Life) + selected various aggregate Investment Management + Group Benefits competitive displacement + Health Solutions Stop Loss + Group Disability claims cycle considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$1.60 aggregate annual dividend (~18-20% aggregate payout ratio; ~1.9-2.2% aggregate dividend yield; selected ~5+ year aggregate dividend increase track record since post-2019 spin-off completion) + ~$500-800M aggregate FY2025 buybacks + aggregate capital return ~$650-960M FY2025 + aggregate excess capital ~$200-400M + RBC ratio ~395-415% + aggregate Debt-to-Capital ratio ~28-32% + investment-grade A3/A- credit rating (S&P) / Baa1 (Moody's) at holding + ~95-97M diluted shares.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~$700-1,000M aggregate annual capital return + selected continued ~1.9-2.2% aggregate dividend yield + selected continued ~$1.60-1.80 aggregate annual dividend (post-FY2025 ~6+ year continued dividend increase track record) + selected continued ~395-415% RBC ratio + selected various aggregate ~$500-800M aggregate annual buybacks + selected continued $200-400M aggregate excess capital. Selected ~18-20% aggregate payout ratio + selected investment-grade A3/A- credit rating support continued capital return + Workplace Solutions + Investment Management + Health Solutions + tuck-in M&A capacity.

Key Core Metrics

• FY2025 revenue ~$7.30-7.85B (+5-10% YoY) vs $6.95B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$8.85-9.65
• 3 segments: Workplace Solutions ~47-49% ($3.50-3.85B) + Investment Management ~27-29% ($2.00-2.20B) + Health Solutions ~21-23% ($1.65-1.75B)
• Workplace Solutions: Voya Retirement ($2.85-3.05B) + Voya Employee Benefits ($0.65-0.80B)
• Defined Contribution record-kept assets: ~$580B+ aggregate
• Workplace participants: ~5.5-6.0M aggregate
• Plan sponsors: ~62,000 aggregate
• US Defined Contribution recordkeeper rank: ~#5-6 by assets
• Investment Management AUM: ~$345-365B aggregate
• Allianz Global Investors US sub-advised AUM: ~$120B+ aggregate (post-2022 strategic partnership)
• Health Solutions: Stop Loss + Group Life + Group Disability + Voluntary Benefits + Health Account Solutions
• post-July 2024 OneAmerica Financial Partners retirement business acquisition (~$370M+ aggregate)
• Net leverage: Debt-to-Capital ~28-32%
• RBC ratio: ~395-415%
• Aggregate excess capital: ~$200-400M
• ~95-97M diluted shares; ~$650-960M total capital return FY2025
• Dividend ~$1.60 annual (~18-20% payout; ~1.9-2.2% yield; ~5+ year increase track)
• ~$500-800M aggregate FY2025 buybacks
• Investment-grade A3/A- credit rating (S&P) / Baa1 (Moody's) at holding

Market Evaluation

VOYA FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$70-90 share price + ~95-97M diluted shares = ~$7-9B market cap; ~$1.60 aggregate annual dividend + ~1.9-2.2% aggregate dividend yield. Selected primary VOYA peers: Principal Financial Group (PFG, ~$18-22B Mcap; Workplace Retirement + Investment Management) + Lincoln Financial (LNC, ~$5-7B; Workplace Retirement + Insurance) + Ameriprise Financial (AMP, ~$45-55B; Wealth + Investment Management) + Equitable Holdings (EQH, ~$15-18B; Retirement + Wealth Management) + Corebridge Financial (CRBG, ~$20-25B; Life Insurance + Workplace Retirement) + Brighthouse Financial (BHF, ~$2-3B; Annuity + Life) + Unum Group (UNM, ~$8-10B; Group Disability + Life) + Sun Life Financial (SLF, ~$30-35B; Group Disability + Life) + BlackRock (BLK, ~$130-150B; Investment Management) + Franklin Resources (BEN, ~$10-13B; Investment Management) + Invesco (IVZ, ~$8-10B; Investment Management) + selected various aggregate Workplace Retirement + Investment Management + Group Benefits companies. Selected VOYA ~8-11x P/E (specialty Workplace + Investment Management + Health Solutions diversified play) + selected ~7-9x EV/EBITDA + selected ~1.9-2.2% dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$7.85-8.30B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate ~$9.45-10.30 aggregate FY2026 EPS + selected aggregate ~$700-1,000M aggregate FY2026 capital return + selected aggregate Workplace Solutions + Investment Management + Health Solutions pipeline. FY2026 base case: ~$7.85-8.30B aggregate revenue + ~$9.45-10.30 adj. EPS + ~$700-1,000M aggregate capital return. Bull case: Workplace Solutions Defined Contribution AUM appreciation (S&P 500 + equity market tailwind to ~$615-650B record-kept assets) + Investment Management AUM growth (Allianz Global Investors US strategic partnership scale + private credit + alternatives expansion to ~$365-385B AUM) + Health Solutions Stop Loss + Group Disability net new business + post-July 2024 OneAmerica integration synergies acceleration drives ~$8.10-8.55B aggregate revenue + ~$10.10-11.00 EPS. Bear case: Fidelity + Empower + Vanguard + TIAA + Principal Financial + Lincoln Financial + Ameriprise + Equitable Workplace Retirement competitive intensification + BlackRock + State Street + Northern Trust + Invesco + Franklin Investment Management competitive intensification + Defined Contribution recordkeeping fee compression + Investment Management fee compression considerations + Health Solutions Stop Loss + Group Disability claims cycle considerations + equity market drawdown considerations (AUM/AUA sensitivity) + post-January 2023 Heather Lavallee CEO succession planning considerations drives ~$7.10-7.50B revenue + ~$7.85-8.65 EPS. The thesis depends on Workplace Solutions Retirement + Benefits + Investment Management + Health Solutions + ~$650-1,000M aggregate annual capital return + ~5+ year dividend increase track + investment-grade A3/A- credit rating.