[UGP] Ultrapar Participações Thesis 2026: Ipiranga Fuel Margins Plus Ultragaz Ultracargo Deleveraging

Key Takeaways

• UGP FY2025 revenue R$125-145B ($24-28B; ~flat to +8% YoY) with adj. EPS ~R$1.50-2.50 (selected various aggregate ~highly BRL/Brent/fuel-margin-sensitive) reflecting continued ~R$105-120B aggregate Ipiranga (fuel + lubricants distribution) revenue + ~R$10-14B aggregate Ultragaz (LPG distribution) revenue + ~R$2.5-4.0B aggregate Ultracargo (liquid bulk storage) revenue + selected various aggregate Hidrovias do Brasil (waterway logistics — equity stake/consolidation) under continued CEO Marcos Lutz (~3-4 year tenure as Ultrapar CEO since ~2022; selected primary post-2022 succession + selected various aggregate ~CEO of Cosan Logística / Rumo background + selected primary architect of post-2022-2025 ~portfolio simplification (post-2022 ~Oxiteno + Extrafarma divestitures) + Ipiranga turnaround + Ultragaz/Ultracargo growth + Hidrovias acquisition + selected various aggregate ~controlling shareholder Ultra S.A. / founding Igel family heritage).
• Ipiranga Fuel + Lubricants Distribution Pipeline (~R$105-120B Revenue): ~R$105-120B aggregate Ipiranga revenue (aggregate ~82-88% revenue mix); selected primary Ipiranga (selected primary ~one of Brazil's largest fuel distributors — gasoline + ethanol + diesel + selected various aggregate ~~6,000-7,000+ branded service stations (Posto Ipiranga) + selected various aggregate ~AmPm convenience stores + Jet Oil lubricant change shops + selected various aggregate ~~km de Vantagens loyalty program + selected various aggregate ~B2B / large-consumer / aviation fuel (Ipiranga aviation) + selected various aggregate ~lubricants (Ipiranga lubricants — Texaco brand license in Brazil)) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Ipiranga margin recovery + turnaround (selected primary post-2021-2024 ~market-share + margin pressure (Vibra/Raízen competition + informal market / fuel fraud + ICMS tax changes) + selected post-2022-2025 ~commercial repositioning + selected various aggregate ~network quality + selected various aggregate ~~R$120-180/m³ aggregate EBITDA margin per cubic meter recovering + selected various aggregate ~volume + mix improvement + selected various aggregate ~combat of fuel fraud / tax irregularity (regulatory tailwind) + selected various aggregate ~~R$3.5-5.0B aggregate Ipiranga EBITDA).
• Ultragaz LPG + Ultracargo Storage + Hidrovias Logistics Pipeline (~R$15-20B Revenue + Growth Catalyst): ~R$10-14B aggregate Ultragaz revenue + ~R$2.5-4.0B aggregate Ultracargo revenue + selected various aggregate Hidrovias do Brasil revenue (aggregate ~12-18% revenue mix); selected primary Ultragaz (selected primary ~leading Brazil LPG (cooking gas) distributor — bottled (P13 residential) + bulk (commercial/industrial) + selected various aggregate ~~national footprint + selected various aggregate ~Ultragaz energia (new energy solutions — biomethane + solar + selected various aggregate) + selected various aggregate ~~R$1.8-2.5B aggregate Ultragaz EBITDA) + selected various aggregate Ultracargo (selected primary ~largest independent liquid bulk storage terminal operator in Brazil — fuels + chemicals + vegetable oils + selected various aggregate ~~1.0-1.5M m³ aggregate capacity across ports — Santos + Aratu + Itaqui + Suape + selected various aggregate + selected various aggregate ~expansion projects + selected various aggregate ~~R$0.8-1.2B aggregate Ultracargo EBITDA) + selected various aggregate Hidrovias do Brasil (selected primary ~waterway logistics — barge transport of grains + bauxite + fuels on Brazilian river systems (north corridor — Amazon/Tapajós + south corridor — Paraguay-Paraná) + selected various aggregate ~post-2024 ~Ultrapar acquisition of control/stake + selected various aggregate ~integration + synergies) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Ultragaz + Ultracargo + Hidrovias growth + selected various aggregate ~capex + selected various aggregate ~portfolio diversification beyond fuel distribution cyclicality.
• Capital position + balance sheet: ~R$0.40-0.80 aggregate annual dividend per share (~1.5-4.0% aggregate yield; selected primary ~~25-50% net income payout + selected various aggregate ~semi-annual/variable + selected various aggregate ~JCP — interest on capital) + selected various aggregate ~R$0+ aggregate buybacks (selected primary ~opportunistic) + aggregate net debt ~R$10-16B (selected various aggregate ~including Hidrovias consolidation debt + selected various aggregate ~debentures + bonds) + selected primary ~1.5-3.0x aggregate net debt / EBITDA (selected various aggregate ~elevated post-Hidrovias; deleveraging path) + brAAA / BB / Ba1 aggregate credit profile (selected various aggregate ~local-scale AAA; global-scale ~BB/Ba1 — Brazil sovereign-capped) + ~1,090-1,110M aggregate shares.
• FY2026 thesis catalysts: Ipiranga Fuel + Lubricants Distribution pipeline (~R$105-120B + ~6,000-7,000+ Posto Ipiranga stations + AmPm + Jet Oil + km de Vantagens loyalty + B2B/aviation + lubricants + post-2024-2025 margin recovery/turnaround + fuel-fraud combat regulatory tailwind + ~R$3.5-5.0B Ipiranga EBITDA) + Ultragaz LPG + Ultracargo Storage + Hidrovias Logistics pipeline (~R$15-20B + leading Brazil LPG + Ultragaz energia + largest independent liquid bulk storage + Ultracargo expansion + Hidrovias waterway logistics integration + diversification) + ~R$0.40-0.80 dividend + ~1.5-3.0x net debt/EBITDA deleveraging + Marcos Lutz portfolio simplification + Ipiranga turnaround + Hidrovias integration execution + BRL/Brent considerations.

Company Background

Ultrapar Participações S.A. (NYSE: UGP; B3: UGPA3) is a Brazilian holding company focused on energy and infrastructure — fuel distribution, LPG distribution, liquid bulk storage and waterway logistics — founded 1937 (selected primary post-1937 founding by the Igel family (Ultragaz LPG origins) + selected post-1937-2025 ~diversification — Ipiranga acquisition 2007 (from Petrobras/Braskem consortium split) + Ultracargo + Oxiteno (chemicals — divested 2022 to Indorama) + Extrafarma (drugstores — divested 2022) + selected post-1999 ~IPO on B3 + post-2014 ~NYSE ADR listing + selected post-2024 ~Hidrovias do Brasil control acquisition). Selected post-1999 B3 listing + post-2014 NYSE ADR listing; selected post-2022-2025 Marcos Lutz CEO era (post-2022 succession; ex-Cosan Logística/Rumo CEO; architect of portfolio simplification + Ipiranga turnaround + Hidrovias acquisition); HQ São Paulo Brazil; ~12,000-16,000 employees; controlling shareholder Ultra S.A. (founding Igel family).

UGP operates four businesses: Ipiranga (~82-88% revenue mix; ~R$105-120B; fuel + lubricants distribution — ~6,000-7,000+ Posto Ipiranga service stations + AmPm convenience + Jet Oil + km de Vantagens loyalty + B2B/aviation + lubricants) + Ultragaz (~7-10% revenue mix; ~R$10-14B; LPG/cooking-gas distribution — bottled P13 residential + bulk commercial/industrial + Ultragaz energia new energy) + Ultracargo (~2-3% revenue mix; ~R$2.5-4.0B; liquid bulk storage terminals — fuels + chemicals + vegetable oils; largest independent in Brazil; ~1.0-1.5M m³ capacity) + Hidrovias do Brasil (consolidated/equity stake post-2024; waterway logistics — barge transport on Brazilian river systems). Geographic mix: predominantly Brazil. Capital position: ~R$0.40-0.80 aggregate annual dividend per share + ~R$0+ aggregate buybacks (opportunistic) + aggregate net debt ~R$10-16B + ~1.5-3.0x aggregate net debt/EBITDA + brAAA / BB / Ba1 credit profile + ~1,090-1,110M aggregate shares.

Ipiranga Fuel + Lubricants Distribution Pipeline (~R$105-120B Revenue)

The Ipiranga Fuel + Lubricants Distribution pipeline is UGP's foundation thesis: ~R$105-120B aggregate Ipiranga revenue (aggregate ~82-88% revenue mix); selected primary Ipiranga (selected primary ~one of Brazil's largest fuel distributors — gasoline + ethanol + diesel + selected various aggregate ~~6,000-7,000+ branded service stations (Posto Ipiranga) + selected various aggregate ~AmPm convenience stores + Jet Oil lubricant change shops + selected various aggregate ~~km de Vantagens loyalty program + selected various aggregate ~B2B / large-consumer / aviation fuel + selected various aggregate ~lubricants (Texaco brand license in Brazil)) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Ipiranga margin recovery + turnaround (selected primary post-2021-2024 ~market-share + margin pressure (Vibra/Raízen competition + informal market / fuel fraud + ICMS tax changes) + selected post-2022-2025 ~commercial repositioning + selected various aggregate ~network quality + selected various aggregate ~~R$120-180/m³ aggregate EBITDA margin per cubic meter recovering + selected various aggregate ~volume + mix improvement + selected various aggregate ~combat of fuel fraud / tax irregularity (regulatory tailwind) + selected various aggregate ~~R$3.5-5.0B aggregate Ipiranga EBITDA).

FY2025 Ipiranga Fuel + Lubricants Distribution dynamics (R$105-120B aggregate revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~flat-to-modest aggregate Ipiranga revenue (selected primary ~fuel price (Brent + BRL + Petrobras pricing policy) + selected various aggregate ~volume (~Brazil fuel demand — Otto cycle + diesel) + selected various aggregate ~commercial repositioning + selected various aggregate ~AmPm + Jet Oil + lubricants growth + selected various aggregate ~fuel-fraud combat regulatory tailwind) + ~R$105-120B aggregate Ipiranga revenue + selected various aggregate ~~R$3.5-5.0B aggregate Ipiranga EBITDA (selected various aggregate ~~R$120-180/m³ aggregate EBITDA margin recovering). Selected post-2024 ~R$1.00-1.80 aggregate annual EPS contribution as Ipiranga Fuel + Lubricants Distribution pipeline drives the dominant revenue + the turnaround earnings lever.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Ipiranga Fuel + Lubricants Distribution pipeline + ~R$1.00-1.80 aggregate EPS contribution under continued Marcos Lutz leadership (~3-4 year tenure). Selected aggregate ~R$105-125B aggregate FY2026 Ipiranga revenue + selected various ~flat-to-modest growth (selected various aggregate ~volume + price + mix) + selected various aggregate ~~6,000-7,000+ Posto Ipiranga stations + selected various aggregate ~AmPm + Jet Oil + km de Vantagens loyalty + selected various aggregate ~B2B/aviation + lubricants + selected various aggregate ~fuel-fraud combat regulatory tailwind (selected primary ~ANP enforcement + tax-monofase/ICMS reform reducing informal-market arbitrage → benefits compliant distributors) + selected various aggregate ~~R$4.0-5.5B aggregate Ipiranga EBITDA (improvement; margin recovery + volume + fraud combat). Risks: Vibra Energia (VBBR3; ex-BR Distribuidora — Brazil's largest fuel distributor; the main competitor) + Raízen (RAIZ4; Cosan/Shell JV — fuel distribution + sugar-ethanol + the #2 distributor) + Petrobras (PBR; refiner + the fuel price-setter — Petrobras pricing policy is a key swing factor) + smaller/regional + informal distributors + selected various aggregate fuel distribution competitive considerations + Brazil fuel demand cycle considerations (GDP + vehicle fleet + ethanol/gasoline price parity affecting Otto cycle mix) + fuel price volatility considerations (Brent + BRL + Petrobras pricing policy + import parity) + inventory gain/loss considerations (price changes → mark-to-market on fuel inventory) + informal market / fuel fraud / tax irregularity considerations (the key margin headwind — and the fraud-combat regulatory tailwind is the key upside) + ICMS / PIS-COFINS / tax-monofase reform considerations + ethanol supply (sugarcane harvest) considerations + EV adoption (long-term, modest in Brazil near-term) considerations + BRL FX considerations.

Ultragaz LPG + Ultracargo Storage + Hidrovias Logistics Pipeline (~R$15-20B Revenue + Growth Catalyst)

The Ultragaz LPG + Ultracargo Storage + Hidrovias Logistics pipeline is UGP's diversification + growth thesis: ~R$10-14B aggregate Ultragaz revenue + ~R$2.5-4.0B aggregate Ultracargo revenue + selected various aggregate Hidrovias do Brasil revenue (aggregate ~12-18% revenue mix); selected primary Ultragaz (selected primary ~leading Brazil LPG (cooking gas) distributor — bottled (P13 residential) + bulk (commercial/industrial) + selected various aggregate ~~national footprint + selected various aggregate ~Ultragaz energia (new energy solutions — biomethane + solar) + selected various aggregate ~~R$1.8-2.5B aggregate Ultragaz EBITDA) + selected various aggregate Ultracargo (selected primary ~largest independent liquid bulk storage terminal operator in Brazil — fuels + chemicals + vegetable oils + selected various aggregate ~~1.0-1.5M m³ aggregate capacity across ports — Santos + Aratu + Itaqui + Suape + selected various aggregate + selected various aggregate ~expansion projects + selected various aggregate ~~R$0.8-1.2B aggregate Ultracargo EBITDA) + selected various aggregate Hidrovias do Brasil (selected primary ~waterway logistics — barge transport of grains + bauxite + fuels + selected various aggregate ~post-2024 ~Ultrapar acquisition of control/stake + selected various aggregate ~integration + synergies) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Ultragaz + Ultracargo + Hidrovias growth + selected various aggregate ~capex + selected various aggregate ~portfolio diversification beyond fuel distribution cyclicality.

FY2025 Ultragaz LPG + Ultracargo Storage + Hidrovias Logistics dynamics: selected primary ~R$10-14B aggregate Ultragaz revenue + ~R$1.8-2.5B aggregate Ultragaz EBITDA + selected various aggregate ~bottled P13 + bulk LPG + Ultragaz energia + selected various aggregate ~R$2.5-4.0B aggregate Ultracargo revenue + ~R$0.8-1.2B aggregate Ultracargo EBITDA + selected various aggregate ~liquid bulk storage + expansion + selected various aggregate Hidrovias do Brasil consolidation/equity (post-2024 acquisition) + selected various aggregate ~integration + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Ultragaz + Ultracargo + Hidrovias growth. Selected post-2024 ~R$0.40-0.80 aggregate annual EPS contribution as Ultragaz LPG + Ultracargo Storage + Hidrovias Logistics pipeline drives diversification + growth + incremental EBITDA.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Ultragaz LPG + Ultracargo Storage + Hidrovias Logistics pipeline + ~R$0.40-0.80 aggregate EPS contribution + selected various aggregate ~Ultragaz LPG volume + Ultragaz energia growth + selected various aggregate ~Ultracargo expansion projects (new terminal capacity) + selected various aggregate ~Hidrovias do Brasil integration + synergies + selected various aggregate ~~R$2.0-2.8B aggregate Ultragaz EBITDA + ~R$1.0-1.4B aggregate Ultracargo EBITDA + selected various aggregate Hidrovias EBITDA contribution + selected various aggregate ~portfolio diversification. Risks: Copa Energia / Nacional Gás / Supergasbras / Liquigás-Copa (Brazil LPG competitors — Ultragaz competes vs ~3-4 majors) + Vibra (VBBR3 — also in storage/logistics) + Hidrovias do Brasil itself (HBSA3 — now consolidated; barge logistics has its own cyclicality — grain harvests + water levels + bauxite demand) + Rumo / Cosan (RAIL3 — rail logistics competing for grain freight) + selected various aggregate LPG distribution + liquid bulk storage + waterway logistics competitive considerations + LPG demand considerations (residential cooking gas — relatively stable; bulk industrial — GDP-linked) + LPG price (Petrobras pricing) considerations + Ultracargo expansion execution + capex considerations + Hidrovias integration execution + synergy realization considerations + waterway logistics considerations (river water levels — drought risk on north/south corridors + grain harvest volumes + bauxite/Hydro Alunorte demand + barge fleet utilization) + Hidrovias debt consolidation (it added leverage) considerations + BRL FX considerations + capital allocation considerations (fuel distribution cash funding logistics capex).

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~R$0.40-0.80 aggregate annual dividend per share (~1.5-4.0% aggregate yield; selected primary ~~25-50% net income payout + selected various aggregate ~semi-annual/variable + selected various aggregate ~JCP — interest on capital) + selected various aggregate ~R$0+ aggregate buybacks (selected primary ~opportunistic) + aggregate net debt ~R$10-16B (selected various aggregate ~including Hidrovias consolidation debt + selected various aggregate ~debentures + bonds) + selected primary ~1.5-3.0x aggregate net debt / EBITDA (selected various aggregate ~elevated post-Hidrovias; deleveraging path) + brAAA / BB / Ba1 aggregate credit profile (selected various aggregate ~local-scale AAA; global-scale ~BB/Ba1 — Brazil sovereign-capped) + ~1,090-1,110M aggregate shares + weighted average debt maturity ~3-5 years + selected various aggregate ~R$5-10B aggregate cash + equivalents.

FY2026 catalyst: continued dividend (~R$0.40-0.80 aggregate annual; selected various aggregate ~~25-50% payout) + selected continued ~R$0+ aggregate buybacks (opportunistic) + selected various aggregate ~1.0-2.5x aggregate net debt/EBITDA (selected primary ~deleveraging on EBITDA growth — Ipiranga turnaround + Hidrovias integration — + working capital management + selected various aggregate ~capex discipline) + selected various aggregate ~debenture/bond refinancing + selected various aggregate ~Selic rate considerations (Brazil rates affect interest expense + discount rates) + selected continued brAAA / BB / Ba1 credit profile (selected various aggregate ~global-scale rating capped by Brazil sovereign). Selected dividend + selected deleveraging + selected ~R$5-10B aggregate cash support continued Ipiranga turnaround + Ultragaz/Ultracargo/Hidrovias growth + capex + portfolio diversification.

Key Core Metrics

• FY2025 revenue R$125-145B ($24-28B; ~flat to +8% YoY) vs ~R$130B FY2024; adj. EPS ~R$1.50-2.50 (highly BRL/Brent/fuel-margin-sensitive)
• 4 businesses: Ipiranga ~82-88% (~R$105-120B; fuel + lubricants distribution — ~6,000-7,000+ Posto Ipiranga stations + AmPm + Jet Oil + km de Vantagens + B2B/aviation + lubricants) + Ultragaz ~7-10% (~R$10-14B; LPG — bottled P13 + bulk + Ultragaz energia) + Ultracargo ~2-3% (~R$2.5-4.0B; liquid bulk storage — fuels + chemicals + vegetable oils; largest independent in Brazil; ~1.0-1.5M m³) + Hidrovias do Brasil (consolidated/stake post-2024; waterway logistics — barge transport)
• Ipiranga EBITDA: ~R$3.5-5.0B aggregate FY2025 (~R$120-180/m³ EBITDA margin recovering); Ultragaz EBITDA: ~R$1.8-2.5B; Ultracargo EBITDA: ~R$0.8-1.2B
• Aggregate adj. EBITDA: ~R$7-10B FY2025 (incl. Hidrovias contribution)
• post-2024-2025 Ipiranga margin recovery / turnaround (post-2021-2024 Vibra/Raízen competition + informal market/fuel fraud + ICMS pressure)
• Fuel-fraud combat regulatory tailwind (ANP enforcement + tax-monofase/ICMS reform — benefits compliant distributors)
• post-2022 portfolio simplification: Oxiteno divested (2022, to Indorama) + Extrafarma divested (2022)
• post-2024 Hidrovias do Brasil control acquisition (waterway logistics — added EBITDA + leverage)
• Geographic mix: predominantly Brazil
• Aggregate net debt: ~R$10-16B (incl. Hidrovias consolidation); ~1.5-3.0x aggregate net debt/EBITDA (deleveraging path)
• brAAA / BB / Ba1 aggregate credit profile (local-scale AAA; global-scale BB/Ba1 — Brazil sovereign-capped)
• ~1,090-1,110M aggregate shares; ~R$0.5-0.9B total dividends FY2025
• Dividend: ~R$0.40-0.80 aggregate annual per share (~1.5-4.0% yield; ~25-50% payout; semi-annual/variable + JCP)
• Opportunistic buybacks (~R$0+ aggregate FY2025)
• ~R$5-10B aggregate cash + equivalents
• ~12,000-16,000 employees; controlling shareholder Ultra S.A. (founding Igel family)
• Marcos Lutz CEO since ~2022 (~3-4 year tenure; ex-Cosan Logística/Rumo CEO)
• HQ São Paulo Brazil; founded 1937; B3 listing 1999 + NYSE ADR 2014

Market Evaluation

UGP FY2026 market evaluation: at R$20-35 ($4-7 ADR) share price + ~1,090-1,110M aggregate shares = R$22-39B ($4-8B) equity market cap; ~R$32-55B aggregate enterprise value (incl. ~R$10-16B net debt); ~R$0.40-0.80 aggregate annual dividend (~1.5-4.0% aggregate yield). Selected primary UGP peers: Vibra Energia (VBBR3, ~R$25-40B Mcap; Brazil's largest fuel distributor — direct) + Raízen (RAIZ4, ~R$15-30B; Cosan/Shell fuel distribution + sugar-ethanol — #2 distributor) + Cosan (CSAN3, ~R$20-40B; holding — Raízen + Rumo + Compass + Moove) + Petrobras (PBR / PBR.A, ~$70-100B; refiner + distributor) + Hidrovias do Brasil (HBSA3 — now consolidated subsidiary) + Rumo (RAIL3, ~R$25-35B; rail logistics) + global fuel distribution / convenience comps: Murphy USA (MUSA, ~$8-10B) + Casey's General Stores (CASY, ~$15-20B) + Couche-Tard (Canada; ANCTF) + World Kinect (WKC, ~$1.5-2.5B) + selected various aggregate fuel distribution + logistics + LPG companies. Selected UGP ~8-14x P/E (Brazilian energy + infrastructure holding with Ipiranga fuel distribution + Ultragaz LPG + Ultracargo storage + Hidrovias logistics + post-2024-2025 Ipiranga turnaround + fuel-fraud combat regulatory tailwind + portfolio simplification + diversification + deleveraging path) + selected ~0.15-0.30x P/Sales (thin-margin distribution) + selected ~5-8x EV/EBITDA + ~1.5-4.0% dividend yield + selected aggregate ~R$125-150B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate ~R$2.00-3.00 aggregate FY2026 EPS + selected aggregate Ipiranga Fuel + Lubricants Distribution + Ultragaz LPG + Ultracargo Storage + Hidrovias Logistics pipeline + sum-of-the-parts (Ipiranga + Ultragaz + Ultracargo + Hidrovias). FY2026 base case: ~R$125-150B aggregate revenue + ~R$2.00-3.00 adj. EPS + ~R$8-11B adj. EBITDA + ~1.0-2.5x net debt/EBITDA. Bull case: Ipiranga Fuel + Lubricants Distribution pipeline acceleration (margin recovery / turnaround + fuel-fraud combat regulatory tailwind benefiting compliant distributors + volume + mix + ~R$4.5-5.5B+ Ipiranga EBITDA) + Ultragaz LPG + Ultracargo Storage + Hidrovias Logistics pipeline acceleration (Ultragaz energia growth + Ultracargo expansion + Hidrovias integration synergies + diversification) + deleveraging + BRL strength drives ~R$130-160B aggregate revenue + ~R$3.00-4.50 adj. EPS + ~R$10-13B adj. EBITDA + sum-of-the-parts re-rating. Bear case: Vibra + Raízen + Petrobras competitive intensification + Brazil fuel demand cycle weakness + fuel price volatility (Brent + BRL + Petrobras pricing policy + import parity + inventory gains/losses) + informal market / fuel fraud persistence (the key margin headwind) + ICMS / tax reform uncertainty + ethanol supply / parity considerations + Ultracargo expansion execution + Hidrovias integration misses + waterway drought / grain harvest / bauxite demand considerations + Hidrovias debt consolidation leverage + Selic rate / interest expense considerations + BRL FX weakness + Brazil macro / political considerations drives ~R$115-130B revenue + ~R$1.00-2.00 adj. EPS + ~2.5-3.5x net debt/EBITDA. The thesis depends on the Ipiranga Fuel + Lubricants Distribution pipeline + Ultragaz LPG + Ultracargo Storage + Hidrovias Logistics pipeline + post-2024-2025 Ipiranga turnaround + fuel-fraud combat regulatory tailwind + portfolio simplification + diversification + deleveraging path + Marcos Lutz Ipiranga turnaround + Hidrovias integration execution + BRL/Brent considerations.